Research.
Conviction.
Accountability.
6 Jan 2025 – 16 Oct 2026
Self-reported · unaudited · 5 of 93 weeks statement-verified · where the number comes from ↗
A visible record of the work.
SPY: total return, dividends reinvested. NSDQ: Nasdaq Composite price return. Return definitions ↗
Two connected research desks.
The AI investment desk ↗
Follow capital from the hyperscaler to the supply chain. Track demand, cash generation and the papers changing the economics.
02 / CLIMATE & COMMODITIESThe climate investment desk ↗
Explore seven agricultural markets, country production and fixed house views. Connect the original sugar thesis to CANE and AGRO valuation.
Free tools from the same desk: Trade Checkup · 交易体检 ↗ — upload a broker trade history and see your trading type and most expensive habit, analysed in your browser — and the A-share clinic · 被套诊所 ↗, base rates for positions held at a loss.
Investment cases.
Micron: underwrite the memory content, then the cycle
Micron's record margins are the starting point, not the thesis. What I want to know is how much of today's memory profitability survives the next capacity response — and whether qualified HBM content makes the next trough higher than the last one.
AMAT & Lam: test the second leg of the memory cycle
High memory profits can fund another wave of equipment spending. But a memory share-price rally is not an equipment order; I need orders, process intensity and customer budgets to confirm the lag.
Uber: who owns demand when the driver changes?
Autonomous vehicles set up a bargaining contest between whoever owns the fleet and whoever owns the demand. Uber's opportunity is to raise fleet utilisation while keeping profitable access to the customer; a robotaxi being available in the app proves neither.
Six working notes I am building out from the ideas archive, each with a dated valuation snapshot (Nov 2, 2026) and a paragraph on where the work stands. They are watchlist research — not published calls, and not part of the track record.