{ "asOf": "2026-09-13", "schemaVersion": 1, "title": "Agriculture · published models and crop monitors", "methodology": "The original September 8 model is preserved. Later crop data and qualitative monitoring extensions have separate dates. Official crop production forecasts are not house forecasts. Countries use national production amounts; growing-region labels identify exposure without inventing state-level tonnage. Local marketing years can differ. No price forecast is inferred from ENSO or from a mechanical elasticity rule.", "commodities": [ { "id": "sugar", "name": "Raw sugar", "unit": "million metric tonnes, raw value", "shortUnit": "Mt", "period": "2026/27", "previousPeriod": "2025/26", "production": 184.854, "previousProduction": 186.056, "consumption": 179.991, "endingStocks": 44.41, "exports": 62.324, "basis": "USDA forecast", "published": "2026-05", "countries": [ { "iso": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "production": 42.5, "previousProduction": 43.8, "region": "Centre-South cane belt; national sugar output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "Issue 8 · original crop transmission analysis", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "period": "Published September 8, 2026; qualitative geography" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "IND", "name": "India", "production": 33.6, "previousProduction": 30, "region": "Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka; national sugar output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "Issue 8 · original crop transmission analysis", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "period": "Published September 8, 2026; qualitative geography" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "EU", "name": "European Union", "production": 14.353, "previousProduction": 15.519, "region": "European Union total; member-state production is not separately allocated.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Bloc total" }, { "iso": "CHN", "name": "China", "production": 12.7, "previousProduction": 12.6, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "production": 9.5, "previousProduction": 11.258, "region": "Northeast and lower north cane-growing regions; national sugar output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Thailand Sugar Annual, TH2026-0011", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Sugar+Annual_Bangkok_Thailand_TH2026-0011.pdf", "period": "2026 report; northeast and lower north cane-growing areas" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "USA", "name": "United States", "production": 7.993, "previousProduction": 8.382, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "PAK", "name": "Pakistan", "production": 6.91, "previousProduction": 7.06, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "RUS", "name": "Russia", "production": 6.25, "previousProduction": 7, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "MEX", "name": "Mexico", "production": 5.451, "previousProduction": 5.49, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "AUS", "name": "Australia", "production": 4.18, "previousProduction": 3.83, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "TUR", "name": "Turkey", "production": 3.05, "previousProduction": 2.9, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "EGY", "name": "Egypt", "production": 3, "previousProduction": 3.18, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "GTM", "name": "Guatemala", "production": 2.81, "previousProduction": 2.681, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "production": 2.5, "previousProduction": 2.7, "region": "East Java, Lampung and Central Java; national sugar output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Indonesia Sugar Annual, ID2026-0014", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Sugar+Annual_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2026-0014.pdf", "period": "April 2026 report; geography figure uses 2024 production areas" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "COL", "name": "Colombia", "production": 2.4, "previousProduction": 2.3, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "ZAF", "name": "South Africa", "production": 2.06, "previousProduction": 2.016, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "production": 2, "previousProduction": 1.835, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "PHL", "name": "Philippines", "production": 1.93, "previousProduction": 1.95, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "IRN", "name": "Iran", "production": 1.8, "previousProduction": 1.8, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "production": 1.49, "previousProduction": 1.49, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "PER", "name": "Peru", "production": 1.35, "previousProduction": 1.3, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "VNM", "name": "Vietnam", "production": 1.35, "previousProduction": 1.35, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "GBR", "name": "United Kingdom", "production": 1.025, "previousProduction": 1.175, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "KEN", "name": "Kenya", "production": 0.85, "previousProduction": 0.605, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "JPN", "name": "Japan", "production": 0.74, "previousProduction": 0.7, "region": "National raw sugar production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other", "production": 13.062, "previousProduction": 13.135, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "usda-sugar", "title": "USDA FAS · Raw sugar balance", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-sugar-may-2026.pdf", "published": "2026-05", "sha256": "7f3e2b821ae3393376431ca9da804593d7c46df01121267e211566fb0927dfd8", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "Positive into the event peak", "label": "Published house model", "viewDate": "2026-09-08", "timing": "India policy and crush data in Q4 2026; close the sugar window by January 31, 2027 unless Indian net imports reach 2 Mt.", "summary": "Our published expression is CANE for deferred sugar exposure, with AGRO as a smaller sugar-plus-urea overlay. The remaining premium depends on India’s exportable balance and crush data, rather than the strength of El Niño alone. The USDA May baseline and the September house deficit thesis are different vintages, so they are shown side by side rather than combined.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "1997 / 2009 / 2023: reversal on 'no shortage'", "price": 15, "unit": "US cents/lb · Mar-27 sugar at end-January 2027", "weight": 0.25 }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "Ban extended, crush data confirm 29–31 Mt, market looks to Brazil 2027/28", "price": 21.5, "unit": "US cents/lb · Mar-27 sugar at end-January 2027", "weight": 0.5 }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "2015-16: a second failed Indian year keeps the rally alive to peak +10 months", "price": 26, "unit": "US cents/lb · Mar-27 sugar at end-January 2027", "weight": 0.25 } ], "transmission": [ "Indian monsoon and reservoir conditions → cane yield and sugar recovery.", "Gross crop less ethanol diversion and domestic use → export availability or imports.", "A tighter deliverable balance → the raw-sugar futures curve; Brazil’s sugar mix can offset the shortage.", "CANE holds deferred contracts; AGRO earns its hedged/unhedged realized price, then absorbs volume, cost, debt and urea effects." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "CANE", "name": "Teucrium Sugar", "mechanism": "Deferred futures basket; contract weights and carry govern the NAV outcome." }, { "ticker": "AGRO", "name": "Adecoagro", "mechanism": "FY27 sugar realization plus urea and operating leverage; equity downside is amplified by debt." } ], "watch": [ "India gross output 29–31 Mt is the published base; ≥32 Mt weakens it.", "India net imports of at least 2 Mt are the published condition for extending the window.", "UNICA sugar mix, export availability, Mar/Jul backwardation and the AGRO hedge book." ], "dataNote": "Official production baseline: USDA May 2026. House prices and valuation: September 8 publication, not live quotes.", "viewType": "published", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "stocksToUsePct": 24.67, "productionGrowthPct": -0.65 }, { "id": "palm", "name": "Palm oil", "unit": "million metric tonnes", "shortUnit": "Mt", "period": "2026/27", "previousPeriod": "2025/26", "production": 81.121, "previousProduction": 81.442, "consumption": 79.269, "endingStocks": 14.472, "exports": 45.261, "basis": "USDA forecast", "published": "2026-09", "countries": [ { "iso": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "production": 47.2, "previousProduction": 46.7, "region": "Sumatra and Kalimantan; national palm-oil output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA IPAD · Indonesia palm-area geography", "url": "https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2023/11/Indonesia/index.pdf", "period": "November 2023 study; geography only" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "MYS", "name": "Malaysia", "production": 19.6, "previousProduction": 20.2, "region": "Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak; national palm-oil output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "MPOB · Malaysia oil-palm area by region", "url": "https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/images/area/2024/Area_summary2024.pdf", "period": "2024 planted-area geography" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "production": 3.72, "previousProduction": 3.9, "region": "Southern Thailand; national palm-oil output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA Palm Oil Explorer · Thailand", "url": "https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/Cropexplorer/Cropview/comm_chartview.aspx?cntryid=THA&cropid=4243000&fattributeid=1&fcattributeid=1&fctypeid=24&ftypeid=47&nationalgraph=False®ionid=seasia&sel_year=2023&startrow=1", "period": "2023 geography; no regional tonnage extrapolated" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "COL", "name": "Colombia", "production": 2, "previousProduction": 2, "region": "National palm oil production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "NGA", "name": "Nigeria", "production": 1.5, "previousProduction": 1.5, "region": "National palm oil production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other", "production": 7.101, "previousProduction": 7.142, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "usda-palm", "title": "USDA FAS · Palm oil balance", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-oilseeds-september-2026.pdf", "published": "2026-09", "sha256": "4df2f2ed14c4711030e6ed88b5eb226db4d20725176118736a2e3fb36749eb28", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "Post-peak watchlist", "label": "Published house view; no price target", "viewDate": "2026-09-08", "timing": "Watch Q1 2027 into 2027. The author’s four-event study found highs 5–13 months after the ENSO peak; the crop response can be longer.", "summary": "The geographic exposure is concentrated in Indonesia and Malaysia. Drought may reduce later fruit-bunch yields, while biodiesel demand and export rules determine how much of the crop reaches the world market. Our published stance is conditional: require falling stocks and yields after the seasonal peak before treating the climate narrative as an earnings thesis. No plantation valuation or numerical return forecast was published.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "Rain and yields recover; Malaysian stocks exceed 3.0 Mt and CPO falls below RM4,200/t. The published activation thesis is too early.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "After peak confirmation, MPOB stocks and fruit-bunch yields turn down while CPO holds above RM4,500/t. Activate company-level diligence.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "Persistent yield losses combine with firm biodiesel demand and falling exportable inventories. Upstream prices strengthen, partly offset by lower crop volume.", "price": null, "weight": null } ], "transmission": [ "Rainfall and soil moisture → delayed fruit-bunch yield.", "Yield × harvested area × oil extraction → crude palm oil production.", "Production less domestic biodiesel/food use, adjusted for stocks and export rules → exportable supply.", "CPO prices lift plantation realization, but crop losses, levies and downstream refining margins determine net earnings." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "KLK", "name": "Kuala Lumpur Kepong", "mechanism": "Plantation price and volume, with downstream processing offsets." }, { "ticker": "SD GUTHRIE", "name": "SD Guthrie", "mechanism": "Upstream plantation cash flow after yields, costs and levies." }, { "ticker": "IOI", "name": "IOI Corporation", "mechanism": "Plantations and resource-based manufacturing have different sensitivities." }, { "ticker": "WILMAR", "name": "Wilmar International", "mechanism": "Integrated processing and consumer operations are not pure CPO exposure." } ], "watch": [ "MPOB monthly production, stocks and exports.", "Indonesian production, biodiesel allocations and export policy.", "Company fruit-bunch yields, realized CPO price and plantation costs." ], "dataNote": "Bear/base/bull are a structured rendering of the published activation framework, not probability-weighted price forecasts.", "viewType": "published", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "stocksToUsePct": 18.26, "productionGrowthPct": -0.39 }, { "id": "corn", "name": "Corn", "unit": "million metric tonnes", "shortUnit": "Mt", "period": "2026/27", "previousPeriod": "2025/26", "production": 1290.952, "previousProduction": 1330.812, "consumption": 1320.232, "endingStocks": 272.101, "exports": null, "basis": "USDA forecast", "published": "2026-09", "countries": [ { "iso": "USA", "name": "United States", "production": 401.332, "previousProduction": 432.342, "region": "Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana; national corn output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA NASS · Crop Explorer regional production examples", "url": "https://data.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/2022/2022_Spring_Data_Users_Booklet.pdf", "period": "2022 reference geography; no historical shares applied to 2026/27" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "CHN", "name": "China", "production": 307, "previousProduction": 301.24, "region": "Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jilin, Hebei and Henan; national corn output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA NASS · Crop Explorer regional production examples", "url": "https://data.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/2022/2022_Spring_Data_Users_Booklet.pdf", "period": "2022 reference geography; no historical shares applied to 2026/27" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "production": 139, "previousProduction": 141, "region": "Mato Grosso, Paraná, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul; national corn output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA NASS · Crop Explorer regional production examples", "url": "https://data.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/2022/2022_Spring_Data_Users_Booklet.pdf", "period": "2022 reference geography; no historical shares applied to 2026/27" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "production": 55, "previousProduction": 63, "region": "National corn production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "EU", "name": "European Union", "production": 50.6, "previousProduction": 56.799, "region": "European Union total; member-state production is not separately allocated.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Bloc total" }, { "iso": "IND", "name": "India", "production": 50, "previousProduction": 55.09, "region": "National corn production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "production": 31.8, "previousProduction": 30.9, "region": "National corn production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "ZAF", "name": "South Africa", "production": 16.5, "previousProduction": 18.1, "region": "National corn production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other origins", "production": 239.72, "previousProduction": 232.341, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "usda-grain-sep26", "title": "USDA FAS · Grain: World Markets and Trade", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-grain-snapshot-2026-09-13.pdf", "published": "2026-09", "pages": "20, 29", "type": "USDA forecast; local marketing years", "sha256": "ee2f9d49581e1604e6cf4a98642682aabe4102190a9645dc87e8268d77c818a6", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "No ENSO premium assumed", "label": "Published neutral stance · expanded crop watch", "viewDate": "2026-09-13", "timing": "Northern Hemisphere harvest in Q3–Q4; South American planting and yield updates through Q2 2027.", "summary": "Corn is monitored for independent supply and demand changes. Our September 8 study did not establish an El Niño premium versus ordinary years. September USDA projects a smaller world crop than 2025/26, but a weather label alone does not tell us whether the current price is cheap. The relevant test is whether exporter stocks tighten after allowing for Brazil, Argentina, US yields, ethanol use and feed substitution.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "US harvest results and South American yields outperform; export stocks rebuild and feed substitutes cap demand.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "Use the published USDA balance as the operating baseline; assign no additional price premium merely for El Niño.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "Several export origins miss yield expectations while feed and ethanol demand hold; available stocks tighten before the next harvest.", "price": null, "weight": null } ], "transmission": [ "Rain and heat at pollination → yield, conditional on local crop stage.", "Country harvests plus carry-in stocks → exportable corn balance.", "Feed, ethanol and substitution demand → futures and regional basis.", "Higher grain prices help crop sellers but raise feed costs; processors depend on the input-to-output margin." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "CORN", "name": "Teucrium Corn", "mechanism": "Futures curve and roll return; a monitored vehicle, not an active ENSO call." }, { "ticker": "ADM / BG", "name": "Archer-Daniels-Midland / Bunge", "mechanism": "Origination volumes and processing margins; grain-price direction is not earnings direction." } ], "watch": [ "USDA yield revisions and exporter stocks.", "Brazil second-crop planting window and Argentina moisture.", "Ethanol production, feed demand and export shipments." ], "dataNote": "Qualitative scenario extension dated September 13. No published house corn price target or scenario probabilities.", "viewType": "published-view-with-new-monitoring-extension", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "scenarioStatus": "New qualitative monitoring framework, September 13, 2026; no author price target or probability assigned.", "stocksToUsePct": 20.61, "productionGrowthPct": -3 }, { "id": "soybeans", "name": "Soybeans", "unit": "million metric tonnes", "shortUnit": "Mt", "period": "2026/27", "previousPeriod": "2025/26", "production": 442.345, "previousProduction": 429.408, "consumption": 442.44, "endingStocks": 124.015, "exports": 191.578, "basis": "USDA forecast", "published": "2026-09", "countries": [ { "iso": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "production": 186, "previousProduction": 180.5, "region": "Mato Grosso; expansion areas in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia; national soybean output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Brazil Oilseeds Annual, BR2026-0014", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2026-0014.pdf", "period": "2026 report; Mato Grosso and MATOPIBA soybean regions" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "USA", "name": "United States", "production": 123.422, "previousProduction": 115.989, "region": "National soybeans production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "production": 50, "previousProduction": 49.5, "region": "National soybeans production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "CHN", "name": "China", "production": 21, "previousProduction": 20.9, "region": "National soybeans production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "PRY", "name": "Paraguay", "production": 11.1, "previousProduction": 12.1, "region": "National soybeans production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "IND", "name": "India", "production": 11, "previousProduction": 11.027, "region": "National soybeans production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "RUS", "name": "Russia", "production": 8, "previousProduction": 9, "region": "National soybeans production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other origins", "production": 31.823, "previousProduction": 30.392, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "usda-oilseeds-sep26", "title": "USDA FAS · Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-oilseeds-september-2026.pdf", "published": "2026-09", "pages": "16, 25; palm oil table", "type": "USDA forecast; local marketing years", "sha256": "4df2f2ed14c4711030e6ed88b5eb226db4d20725176118736a2e3fb36749eb28", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "Neutral on beans; monitor oil and crush", "label": "Published neutral stance · expanded crop watch", "viewDate": "2026-09-13", "timing": "South American planting in Q4 2026; pod fill and harvest in Q1–Q2 2027.", "summary": "Soybeans are a three-market problem: beans are processed into meal and oil, so a palm-oil shortage may help soybean oil without creating an equivalent shortage of beans. Our original study did not establish a general El Niño premium for soybeans. Follow Brazilian and Argentine crop outcomes, Chinese buying, biodiesel demand and the meal/oil mix before selecting a security.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "Large South American harvests meet softer import demand; bean inventories rise and meal oversupply limits crush profitability.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "Keep the USDA crop baseline and a neutral bean-price view; assess oil demand and meal supply separately.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "Harvest losses coincide with palm substitution and firm biofuel demand; oil values and selected crush margins strengthen.", "price": null, "weight": null } ], "transmission": [ "Rain, planting date and pod-fill conditions → soybean yield.", "Harvest plus import demand → bean balance.", "Crush converts beans into meal and oil; palm substitution acts most directly on the oil leg.", "Processor earnings follow product revenues less bean and energy costs, adjusted for hedges and utilization." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "BG", "name": "Bunge", "mechanism": "Original conditional idea: crush margins and integration; not a simple long-soybean proxy." }, { "ticker": "ADM", "name": "Archer-Daniels-Midland", "mechanism": "Oilseed processing spread and volume." }, { "ticker": "SOYB", "name": "Teucrium Soybean", "mechanism": "Bean futures basket; excludes direct equity operating leverage." } ], "watch": [ "Brazil and Argentina yield revisions; China imports.", "Palm–soy oil spread, oil/meal values and crush margins.", "Biofuel rules and actual processor utilization." ], "dataNote": "Consumption is rounded to 0.01 Mt in USDA Table 16; other values use the more precise Table 7. Scenarios are a September 13 research extension, with no price targets.", "viewType": "published-view-with-new-monitoring-extension", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "scenarioStatus": "New qualitative monitoring framework, September 13, 2026; no author price target or probability assigned.", "stocksToUsePct": 28.03, "productionGrowthPct": 3.01 }, { "id": "wheat", "name": "Wheat", "unit": "million metric tonnes", "shortUnit": "Mt", "period": "2026/27", "previousPeriod": "2025/26", "production": 822.432, "previousProduction": 843.989, "consumption": 826.745, "endingStocks": 276.291, "exports": null, "basis": "USDA forecast", "published": "2026-09", "countries": [ { "iso": "CHN", "name": "China", "production": 141, "previousProduction": 140.07, "region": "National wheat production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "EU", "name": "European Union", "production": 133.8, "previousProduction": 145.136, "region": "European Union total; member-state production is not separately allocated.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Bloc total" }, { "iso": "IND", "name": "India", "production": 121, "previousProduction": 117.945, "region": "National wheat production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "RUS", "name": "Russia", "production": 88, "previousProduction": 90.3, "region": "National wheat production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "USA", "name": "United States", "production": 41.656, "previousProduction": 54.01, "region": "Kansas and other US wheat-growing states; national wheat output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA Wheat Explorer · United States", "url": "https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/cropview/comm_chartview.aspx?cntryid=USA&cropid=0410000&fcattributeid=9&fctypeid=19&nationalGraph=False®ionid=us&sel_year=2025&startRow=11", "period": "2025 geography; country total remains the separate September 2026 forecast" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "production": 36, "previousProduction": 40.562, "region": "National wheat production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "AUS", "name": "Australia", "production": 31, "previousProduction": 35.985, "region": "Western Australia, South Australia and eastern wheat-growing states; national wheat output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "ABARES · Australian Crop Report, March 2026", "url": "https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/australian-crop-report/march-2026", "period": "March 2026; state growing regions only" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "production": 26, "previousProduction": 24.1, "region": "National wheat production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "production": 21.5, "previousProduction": 27.886, "region": "National wheat production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other origins", "production": 182.476, "previousProduction": 167.995, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "usda-grain-sep26", "title": "USDA FAS · Grain: World Markets and Trade", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-grain-snapshot-2026-09-13.pdf", "published": "2026-09", "pages": "20, 29", "type": "USDA forecast; local marketing years", "sha256": "ee2f9d49581e1604e6cf4a98642682aabe4102190a9645dc87e8268d77c818a6", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "No climate-only long", "label": "Published avoid stance · expanded crop watch", "viewDate": "2026-09-13", "timing": "Australian grain fill and harvest in Q4 2026; Northern Hemisphere winter-wheat conditions through spring 2027.", "summary": "Australian weather matters, but world wheat pricing also reflects Black Sea export access, other origins, quality and freight. Our published stance avoided WEAT as an El Niño expression. September USDA raises Australian production versus its August estimate while projecting a smaller crop than last year; that distinction is useful counter-evidence to a blanket drought narrative. Global stocks include inventories that may not reach import markets.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "Australian and Canadian harvests outperform and Black Sea shipments normalize; accessible export supply improves.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "Use the USDA balance and no extra ENSO premium. Track the availability and quality of exporter stocks.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "Australian yields fall while export logistics remain constrained elsewhere; importing countries pay higher replacement costs.", "price": null, "weight": null } ], "transmission": [ "Regional rain and heat → yield and protein quality.", "Exporter output, stocks and shipping access → deliverable wheat.", "Quality spreads and freight → regional import prices.", "Futures vehicles capture contract returns; food producers face input-cost pressure after hedges roll." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "WEAT", "name": "Teucrium Wheat", "mechanism": "Original stance: avoid as an ENSO-only expression; no short position implied." }, { "ticker": "ADM / BG", "name": "Grain merchants", "mechanism": "Trade flows, logistics and margin; benchmark price alone is insufficient." } ], "watch": [ "Australia grain-fill moisture and USDA/ABARES revisions.", "Black Sea shipments and freight availability.", "Exporter stocks, wheat quality spreads and substitution into feed." ], "dataNote": "Current forecast data do not turn the original neutral/avoid climate view into a price target.", "viewType": "published-view-with-new-monitoring-extension", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "scenarioStatus": "New qualitative monitoring framework, September 13, 2026; no author price target or probability assigned.", "stocksToUsePct": 33.42, "productionGrowthPct": -2.55 }, { "id": "coffee", "name": "Coffee", "unit": "million 60-kg bags", "shortUnit": "m bags", "period": "2026/27", "previousPeriod": "2025/26", "production": 189.667, "previousProduction": 178.83, "consumption": 179.736, "endingStocks": 26.283, "exports": 158.874, "basis": "USDA forecast; Arabica and Robusta combined", "published": "2026-07", "countries": [ { "iso": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "production": 71.9, "previousProduction": 63, "region": "Arabica: Minas Gerais; Robusta: Espírito Santo; national combined-coffee output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Coffee: World Markets and Trade", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-coffee-snapshot-2026-09-13.pdf", "period": "July 2026; Brazil and Indonesia regional crop descriptions" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "VNM", "name": "Vietnam", "production": 32.5, "previousProduction": 31.7, "region": "Central Highlands; national combined-coffee output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Vietnam Coffee Annual, geography reference", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Coffee+Annual_Hanoi_Vietnam_5-21-2013.pdf", "period": "2013 regional reference; used only to identify Central Highlands, not present-day output" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "COL", "name": "Colombia", "production": 13.4, "previousProduction": 12.5, "region": "National coffee production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "ETH", "name": "Ethiopia", "production": 12.1, "previousProduction": 11.56, "region": "National coffee production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "production": 11.38, "previousProduction": 12.37, "region": "Robusta exposure: southern Sumatra and Java; national combined-coffee output shown", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Coffee: World Markets and Trade", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-coffee-snapshot-2026-09-13.pdf", "period": "July 2026; Brazil and Indonesia regional crop descriptions" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "UGA", "name": "Uganda", "production": 7.16, "previousProduction": 7.095, "region": "National coffee production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "IND", "name": "India", "production": 6.14, "previousProduction": 6.43, "region": "National coffee production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "HND", "name": "Honduras", "production": 6.03, "previousProduction": 5.53, "region": "National coffee production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other origins", "production": 29.057, "previousProduction": 28.645, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2026/27", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "usda-coffee-jul26", "title": "USDA FAS · Coffee: World Markets and Trade", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf", "file": "/data/climate/usda-coffee-snapshot-2026-09-13.pdf", "published": "2026-07", "pages": "1–3, 7, 10", "type": "USDA forecast; producer marketing years differ", "sha256": "759237ebac14cccb1492a6577d2d74f06107699fd75c558effab95aae2443e2f", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "Watch crop risk; no broad long", "label": "Published Robusta caution · broader coffee watch", "viewDate": "2026-09-13", "timing": "Brazil flowering in Q3–Q4, Vietnam dry-season irrigation in Q1 2027, then subsequent harvest and stock updates.", "summary": "Keep Arabica and Robusta distinct. USDA’s July forecast has a record combined world crop led by Brazil, while Indonesia is lower. Our original note rejected Robusta as a simple El Niño trade. We monitor whether adverse flowering or irrigation conditions actually reduce the following crop enough to outweigh Brazil’s production cycle, inventories and demand substitution. A weather concern is not yet a numerical price forecast.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "Brazil delivers its strong crop and Vietnamese yields hold; stocks rebuild and the scarcity premium fades.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "Retain USDA production as the balance baseline. Monitor Arabica and Robusta separately without an added ENSO premium.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "Poor flowering or dry-season water shortages cut subsequent harvests; exchange inventories and export shipments confirm tighter supply.", "price": null, "weight": null } ], "transmission": [ "Flowering, rainfall and irrigation → cherry set and bean yield.", "Species-specific output and export stocks → Arabica/Robusta availability.", "Roaster substitution and certified inventories → futures, physical differentials and blends.", "Roaster/retailer margins depend on hedges, menu or packaged-price resets, volumes and labor as well as beans." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "SBUX", "name": "Starbucks", "mechanism": "Indirect input-cost exposure; customer demand, labor and hedging can dominate." }, { "ticker": "NESN", "name": "Nestlé", "mechanism": "Coffee sourcing costs and consumer pricing within a diversified business." } ], "watch": [ "Minas Gerais flowering and Vietnamese irrigation availability.", "USDA species/country revisions and producer exports.", "Arabica/Robusta spreads and certified exchange stocks." ], "dataNote": "One bag is 60 kg; do not compare the displayed bag count directly with Mt totals. Export total includes processed products in green-bean equivalent. The published house caution concerned Robusta, not a calibrated combined-coffee model.", "viewType": "published-view-with-new-monitoring-extension", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "scenarioStatus": "New qualitative monitoring framework, September 13, 2026; no author price target or probability assigned.", "stocksToUsePct": 14.62, "productionGrowthPct": 6.06 }, { "id": "cocoa", "name": "Cocoa", "unit": "million metric tonnes", "shortUnit": "Mt", "period": "2024/25 · latest public global estimate", "previousPeriod": null, "production": 4.733, "previousProduction": null, "consumption": 4.649, "consumptionLabel": "Grindings", "endingStocks": 1.309, "exports": null, "basis": "ICCO revised estimate; 2025/26 withheld", "published": "2026-08-31", "countryPeriod": "2023/24 · historical geography", "countryTotal": 4.368, "countries": [ { "iso": "CIV", "name": "Côte d’Ivoire", "production": 1.674, "previousProduction": 2.241, "region": "Western and southwestern cocoa-growing regions; national cocoa output shown", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Côte d’Ivoire Cocoa Sector Overview", "url": "https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/cote-divoire-cote-divoire-cocoa-sector-overview-2025", "period": "March 2025; western and southwestern production regions" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "GHA", "name": "Ghana", "production": 0.449, "previousProduction": 0.654, "region": "Western, Western North, Ashanti and other forest-belt regions; national cocoa output shown", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": { "title": "USDA FAS · Ghana Cocoa Sector Overview, GH2025-0008", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Ghana+-+Cocoa+Sector+Overview+-+2025_Accra_Ghana_GH2025-0008.pdf", "period": "2025 report; regional cultivation geography" }, "regionStatus": "Source-backed qualitative geography" }, { "iso": "ECU", "name": "Ecuador", "production": 0.419, "previousProduction": 0.454, "region": "National cocoa production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "NGA", "name": "Nigeria", "production": 0.35, "previousProduction": 0.315, "region": "National cocoa production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "CMR", "name": "Cameroon", "production": 0.32, "previousProduction": 0.27, "region": "National cocoa production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "production": 0.182, "previousProduction": 0.22, "region": "National cocoa production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "production": 0.18, "previousProduction": 0.16, "region": "National cocoa production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "PNG", "name": "Papua New Guinea", "production": 0.045, "previousProduction": 0.043, "region": "National cocoa production total; no subnational allocation.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Country total" }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other origins", "production": 0.749, "previousProduction": 0.659, "region": "Unmapped remainder of the world production total.", "period": "2023/24", "regionSource": null, "regionStatus": "Aggregate; not a location" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "icco-aug26", "title": "ICCO · August 2026 Quarterly Bulletin public release", "url": "https://www.icco.org/august-2026-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/", "published": "2026-08-31", "type": "Revised 2024/25 estimate; current-season figures withheld", "dateNote": "Article metadata and issue title identify August 31, 2026; the body retains an inconsistent May 29 dateline.", "captured": "2026-09-13" }, { "id": "icco-countries-may25", "title": "ICCO · Production of cocoa beans, public country table", "url": "https://www.icco.org/production_qbcs-li-no-2/", "published": "2025-05-30", "type": "Historical 2023/24 estimate; not a current crop forecast" }, { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, { "id": "noaa-crop-mechanisms", "title": "NOAA · ENSO and global crop yields", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields", "type": "Mechanism reference; ENSO is not a deterministic crop forecast" } ], "view": "Watch supply; confectioner short withdrawn", "label": "Published house caution · updated evidence", "viewDate": "2026-09-13", "timing": "West African main crop and December–February harmattan, followed by port arrivals and quarterly grindings.", "summary": "The current public evidence does not support a precise new-season global balance: ICCO withheld 2025/26 production and grindings. The revised 2024/25 baseline is therefore shown explicitly, with historical country geography. Our original note withdrew the confectioner short. The next decision depends on pod development, crop disease, export arrivals and demand—not an automatic assumption that every El Niño damages cocoa.", "scenarios": [ { "name": "Bear", "thesis": "Harvests and arrivals improve while demand remains weak; cocoa input costs ease as older hedges expire.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Base", "thesis": "Keep the published watch stance. Withhold a new-season price target until comparable crop and grinding data are available.", "price": null, "weight": null }, { "name": "Bull", "thesis": "A harsh dry season and disease impair harvests; arrivals disappoint while grindings recover, tightening available stocks.", "price": null, "weight": null } ], "transmission": [ "Harmattan, local rainfall and disease → pod set, bean quality and harvest.", "Farmgate incentives and port logistics → marketable supply.", "Supply versus grindings and usable inventories → cocoa and product prices.", "Confectioner input costs reach earnings through hedge expiry, recipe mix, pricing and demand elasticity." ], "exposures": [ { "ticker": "HSY", "name": "Hershey", "mechanism": "Input cost and hedge timing; the original short thesis was withdrawn." }, { "ticker": "MDLZ", "name": "Mondelez", "mechanism": "Cocoa costs versus pricing and consumer volumes, within a diversified portfolio." } ], "watch": [ "West African pod counts, rainfall and port arrivals.", "ICCO resumption of current-season production/grindings estimates.", "Regional grindings, usable stocks and confectioner hedge commentary." ], "dataNote": "The latest public global balance is 2024/25. Country geography is from 2023/24, and its shares use that year’s 4.368 Mt world total. Current-season production and grindings remain unavailable. ICCO’s 0.037 Mt surplus adjusts for weight loss; it differs from gross production less grindings.", "surplus": 0.037, "stocksToGrindingsPct": 28.2, "viewType": "published-view-with-new-monitoring-extension", "countryCoverageNote": "Production numbers are national or bloc totals. Named growing areas have separate geography sources and do not imply regional tonnage. Otherwise only the country is identified.", "scenarioConvention": "Bear/base/bull refer to the commodity price environment, not directly to every exposed equity.", "scenarioStatus": "New qualitative monitoring framework, September 13, 2026; no author price target or probability assigned.", "stocksToUsePct": 28.16, "productionGrowthPct": null } ], "sugarModel": { "title": "Our published sugar investment model", "publishedDate": "2026-09-08", "version": "Issue 8 · second edition", "source": { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, "priceDate": "2026-09-04 futures curve; September 8 CANE/AGRO reference prices", "horizon": "Raw sugar / CANE: end-January 2027. AGRO: FY27 earnings and end-2027 balance sheet.", "unitNote": "Sugar: US cents/lb. CANE/AGRO: USD/share. AGRO earnings, debt and minorities: USD million.", "pricing": { "contract": "Mar-27 raw sugar #11", "horizon": "end-January 2027", "forward": 19.05, "ours": 21, "spot": 18.07, "spotContract": "Oct-26", "curveDate": "2026-09-04", "iv": 0.3, "years": 0.4, "scenarios": [ { "key": "bear", "label": "Bear", "price": 15, "p": 0.25, "path": "1997 / 2009 / 2023: reversal on 'no shortage'" }, { "key": "base", "label": "Base", "price": 21.5, "p": 0.5, "path": "Ban extended, crush data confirm 29–31 Mt, market looks to Brazil 2027/28" }, { "key": "bull", "label": "Bull", "price": 26, "p": 0.25, "path": "2015-16: a second failed Indian year keeps the rally alive to peak +10 months" } ], "thresholds": [ { "label": "P(≤ 15c)", "market": 0.12, "ours": 0.25 }, { "label": "P(≥ 20c)", "market": 0.36, "ours": 0.62 }, { "label": "P(≥ 21.5c)", "market": 0.23, "ours": 0.5 }, { "label": "P(≥ 25c)", "market": 0.06, "ours": 0.25 } ], "curve": [ { "contract": "Oct-26", "price": 18.07 }, { "contract": "Mar-27", "price": 19.05 }, { "contract": "May-27", "price": 18.44 }, { "contract": "Jul-27", "price": 18.06 }, { "contract": "Mar-28", "price": 18.41 } ], "scenarioCurves": { "bear": { "Mar-27": 15, "May-27": 15.2, "Jul-27": 15.4, "Mar-28": 16.3 }, "base": { "Mar-27": 21.5, "May-27": 21, "Jul-27": 20.3, "Mar-28": 19.3 }, "bull": { "Mar-27": 26, "May-27": 25, "Jul-27": 23.5, "Mar-28": 21.5 } }, "audit": [ { "metric": "Mar-27 at end-January 2027, mean", "market": "19.05c (forward)", "ours": "21.0c (probability-weighted)", "reading": "+10%: half-priced" }, { "metric": "P(≥ 21.5c) / P(≥ 25c) / P(≤ 15c)", "market": "23% / 6% / 12%; one-sd range 15.8–23.0c (IV 30%, 0.4y)", "ours": "50% / 25% / 25%; scenario range 15–26c", "reading": "Both tails under-priced; policy bimodality" }, { "metric": "Curve shape (4 Sep)", "market": "Oct-26 18.07 → Mar-27 19.05 → Mar-28 18.41: Q1-27 priced as the tightest point", "ours": "Agree on the shape — India's crush data land in Q1-27, Brazil's 2027/28 after — disagree on the level", "reading": "Timing priced; level not" }, { "metric": "Balance implied by the price", "market": "The +3.3c rally since May prices ≈ 2 Mt of deterioration at ≈ 1.5c per Mt", "ours": "India at 29–31 Mt and Thailand below 10 Mt give −1 to −3 Mt (trade-house median −1.3 Mt); USDA's +4.8 Mt is pre-monsoon", "reading": "The deficit the data are converging on is not yet priced" }, { "metric": "Positioning (CFTC, 1 Sep)", "market": "Managed-money net +234k lots = 18.3% of open interest, from −18.5% on 23 June; gross long plus short a record", "ours": "A sizing constraint and a source of 3% daily moves, not a directional signal; the divergence rule in Table 9 applies", "reading": "Priced by the crowd; fragile" }, { "metric": "Equities since 16 June (BoM declaration)", "market": "CF +28%, NTR +24%, AGRO +23%, CANE +22%, MOS +22%, BG +5%; S&P 500 +2%; front-month IV ≈ 32%", "ours": "Equities found the theme before the commodity; AGRO trades at 92% of our value; the fertilizer re-rating is complete", "reading": "Headline priced; vehicles fair" } ] }, "caneModel": { "title": "CANE contract by contract — end-January 2027", "nav": 11.44, "price": 11.46, "aum": "$61.5M", "holdings": "1,005 Mar-27, 892 May-27, 1,048 Mar-28 contracts ($21.4M / $18.4M / $21.6M of notional) against an NAV of $11.44 a share", "ter": 0.0248, "tbill": 0.037, "years": 0.4, "rows": [ { "contract": "May-27 (second-to-expire)", "price": 18.44, "weight": 0.35, "bear": 15.2, "base": 21, "bull": 25, "cBear": -6.2, "cBase": 4.9, "cBull": 12.4 }, { "contract": "Jul-27 (third-to-expire, bought at the roll)", "price": 18.06, "weight": 0.3, "bear": 15.4, "base": 20.3, "bull": 23.5, "cBear": -4.4, "cBase": 3.7, "cBull": 9 }, { "contract": "Mar-28 (following March)", "price": 18.41, "weight": 0.35, "bear": 16.3, "base": 19.3, "bull": 21.5, "cBear": -4, "cBase": 1.7, "cBull": 5.9 } ], "gross": { "bear": -14.6, "base": 10.3, "bull": 27.4, "memo": "Mar-27 headline scenario 15.0 / 21.5 / 26.0" }, "carry": 0.5, "net": { "bear": -14.1, "base": 10.8, "bull": 27.9 }, "targets": { "bear": 9.83, "base": 12.67, "bull": 14.63 }, "pw": { "ret": 8.8, "price": 12.45, "vsPrice": 8.6 }, "memo": "Mar-27 alone vs its 19.05c forward: −21% / +13% / +37%, probability-weighted +10.2%. The first edition's '+16%' compared end-January scenarios with the Oct-26 price of 18.07c — a mixed basis, now superseded.", "sensitivities": "A parallel shift of the whole curve would give −21% / +13% / +37%; a flatter bull curve (Mar-28 at 23c) adds ≈ 2.8 points to the bull case. Executing the roll after a rally changes little (the fund earns the pre-roll move on Mar-27 and pays it away on Jul-27); a collapse of the Mar/Jul backwardation before the roll signals fading nearby tightness and sits in the monitoring panel." }, "agroBridge": { "title": "Adecoagro FY27E earnings bridge ($M unless stated)", "price": 12.19, "shares": "144.3M", "rows": [ { "line": "FY27 average raw sugar (c/lb) — end-January scenario 15 / 21.5 / 26c", "bear": "15.0", "base": "20.0", "bull": "24.5" }, { "line": "Hedged 16% of volume at 17.4c → realised price (c/lb)", "bear": "15.4", "base": "19.6", "bull": "23.4" }, { "line": "Sugar ≈ 1.0 Mt (2.2 bn lb) incl. Caarapó: Δ sugar EBITDA vs base at $22M per cent", "bear": "−93", "base": "0", "bull": "+83" }, { "line": "Ethanol and cogeneration vs base", "bear": "−15", "base": "0", "bull": "+25" }, { "line": "Sugar, ethanol & energy EBITDA", "bear": "277", "base": "385", "bull": "493", "bold": true }, { "line": "Urea realised ($/t; 2Q26 actual $699, August FOB ≈ $570) → Fertilizer EBITDA", "bear": "450 → 235", "base": "550 → 335", "bull": "650 → 435", "bold": true }, { "line": "Farming & land / Corporate", "bear": "50 / −55", "base": "65 / −55", "bull": "85 / −55" }, { "line": "Consolidated adjusted EBITDA", "bear": "507", "base": "730", "bull": "958", "bold": true }, { "line": "EV/EBITDA (bear multiple compresses as leverage rises) → enterprise value", "bear": "5.0x → 2,537", "base": "5.5x → 4,015", "bull": "5.5x → 5,271" }, { "line": "Less net debt at end-2027 / minorities", "bear": "1,950 / 130", "base": "1,900 / 150", "bull": "1,850 / 200" }, { "line": "Equity value → per share vs $12.19", "bear": "457 → $3.2 (−74%)", "base": "1,965 → $13.6 (+12%)", "bull": "3,221 → $22.3 (+83%)", "bold": true } ], "pw": "$13.2: +8.1% capital, +10.2% with the 2.1% dividend", "consensus": "7 analysts: average Hold, targets $13.1–13.4", "worst": "Worst historical moves: −21.5% in five days and −32.8% in twenty (12 months to 8 Sep 2026); −15.1% in one day (April 2025 tender)", "conclusions": "AGRO is a sugar-plus-urea vehicle: in the bull case sugar adds $3.2 a share and urea $3.8; a 5.0x multiple on $1.95bn of net debt at 15c sugar is what turns a −4c move into a −74% equity outcome. Expected return does not justify a core weight; the stock is fairly priced with positive skew — a low-weight convex overlay whose job is the bull case. CANE and AGRO are one sugar factor: size them jointly." }, "scenarios": [ { "id": "bear", "name": "Bear", "weight": 0.25, "jan2027RawSugar": 15, "fy2027AverageSugar": 15, "realizedSugar": 15.4, "canePrice": 9.83, "caneNetReturnPct": -14.1, "agroEbitda": 507, "agroMultiple": 5, "agroNetDebt": 1950, "agroMinorities": 130, "agroPrice": 3.2, "policy": "Ethanol-diversion curbs release 2–3 Mt of sugar; imports fall short of the 1 Mt quota; the ban lapses into a 'relaxed' regime; late-September rain lifts the season toward −10%" }, { "id": "base", "name": "Base", "weight": 0.5, "jan2027RawSugar": 21.5, "fy2027AverageSugar": 20, "realizedSugar": 19.6, "canePrice": 12.67, "caneNetReturnPct": 10.8, "agroEbitda": 730, "agroMultiple": 5.5, "agroNetDebt": 1900, "agroMinorities": 150, "agroPrice": 13.6, "policy": "Ban extended (formally or 'until further orders'); ethanol diversion trimmed modestly (2.4–3.0 Mt); ≈ 1 Mt of imports arrive by October–November; Maharashtra's crush delayed to mid-October" }, { "id": "bull", "name": "Bull", "weight": 0.25, "jan2027RawSugar": 26, "fy2027AverageSugar": 24.5, "realizedSugar": 23.4, "canePrice": 14.63, "caneNetReturnPct": 27.9, "agroEbitda": 958, "agroMultiple": 5.5, "agroNetDebt": 1850, "agroMinorities": 200, "agroPrice": 22.3, "policy": "Net imports of 2 Mt or more; ban extended through 2027; ethanol diversion maintained on political grounds; Thailand confirms below 10 Mt" } ], "valuationRows": [ { "line": "FY27 average raw sugar (c/lb) — end-January scenario 15 / 21.5 / 26c", "bear": "15.0", "base": "20.0", "bull": "24.5" }, { "line": "Hedged 16% of volume at 17.4c → realised price (c/lb)", "bear": "15.4", "base": "19.6", "bull": "23.4" }, { "line": "Sugar ≈ 1.0 Mt (2.2 bn lb) incl. Caarapó: Δ sugar EBITDA vs base at $22M per cent", "bear": "−93", "base": "0", "bull": "+83" }, { "line": "Ethanol and cogeneration vs base", "bear": "−15", "base": "0", "bull": "+25" }, { "line": "Sugar, ethanol & energy EBITDA", "bear": "277", "base": "385", "bull": "493", "bold": true }, { "line": "Urea realised ($/t; 2Q26 actual $699, August FOB ≈ $570) → Fertilizer EBITDA", "bear": "450 → 235", "base": "550 → 335", "bull": "650 → 435", "bold": true }, { "line": "Farming & land / Corporate", "bear": "50 / −55", "base": "65 / −55", "bull": "85 / −55" }, { "line": "Consolidated adjusted EBITDA", "bear": "507", "base": "730", "bull": "958", "bold": true }, { "line": "EV/EBITDA (bear multiple compresses as leverage rises) → enterprise value", "bear": "5.0x → 2,537", "base": "5.5x → 4,015", "bull": "5.5x → 5,271" }, { "line": "Less net debt at end-2027 / minorities", "bear": "1,950 / 130", "base": "1,900 / 150", "bull": "1,850 / 200" }, { "line": "Equity value → per share vs $12.19", "bear": "457 → $3.2 (−74%)", "base": "1,965 → $13.6 (+12%)", "bull": "3,221 → $22.3 (+83%)", "bold": true } ], "policyTree": { "date": "2026-09-30", "title": "The 30 September policy tree", "outcomes": [ { "key": "bear", "label": "Bearish surprise", "p": 0.25, "looks": "Ethanol-diversion curbs release 2–3 Mt of sugar; imports fall short of the 1 Mt quota; the ban lapses into a 'relaxed' regime; late-September rain lifts the season toward −10%", "price": "Retrace to 15–16c on 'no shortage' — the 1997 / 2009 / 2023 path. Maps to the 15c bear case" }, { "key": "base", "label": "Base", "p": 0.5, "looks": "Ban extended (formally or 'until further orders'); ethanol diversion trimmed modestly (2.4–3.0 Mt); ≈ 1 Mt of imports arrive by October–November; Maharashtra's crush delayed to mid-October", "price": "18–22c into Q1-27 as crush data confirm a 29–31 Mt crop; the market then looks to Brazil 2027/28. Maps to the 21.5c base case" }, { "key": "bull", "label": "Bullish", "p": 0.25, "looks": "Net imports of 2 Mt or more; ban extended through 2027; ethanol diversion maintained on political grounds; Thailand confirms below 10 Mt", "price": "The 2015-16 path — a second failed year keeps the rally alive to peak +10 months; 24–28c. Maps to the 26c bull case" } ], "afterProbabilities": "Table 9 gives the probabilities after each branch resolves: base confirmed 20 / 55 / 25; bearish branch 55 / 35 / 10; late rain 40 / 45 / 15." }, "expected": { "rawSugar": 21, "rawSugarVsForwardPct": 10.24, "canePrice": 12.45, "caneReturnFromNavPct": 8.8, "caneReturnFromPricePct": 8.6, "agroPrice": 13.2, "agroCapitalReturnPct": 8.1, "agroTotalReturnPct": 10.2 }, "decision": "CANE is the core commodity expression; AGRO is a smaller convex overlay. They share the same sugar scenarios and are not independent diversification.", "exitRule": "Published window closes by January 31, 2027 unless India’s net sugar imports reach at least 2 Mt.", "audit": { "status": "Published rounded model reproduced; source arithmetic differences disclosed", "rows": [ { "scenario": "bear", "caneFromDisplayedCurve": 9.8279, "publishedCanePrice": 9.83, "agroFromRoundedInputs": 3.1532, "publishedAgroPrice": 3.2 }, { "scenario": "base", "caneFromDisplayedCurve": 12.6709, "publishedCanePrice": 12.67, "agroFromRoundedInputs": 13.6175, "publishedAgroPrice": 13.6 }, { "scenario": "bull", "caneFromDisplayedCurve": 14.6261, "publishedCanePrice": 14.63, "agroFromRoundedInputs": 22.3077, "publishedAgroPrice": 22.3 } ], "note": "Published targets are retained exactly. Recalculation from the rounded curve/earnings inputs differs by up to $0.004 per CANE share and $0.047 per AGRO share. AGRO enterprise values displayed in the original table differ by $2 million in the bear and bull cases from multiplying its rounded EBITDA and multiples; no undocumented precision is assumed.", "weightedPriceCheck": { "rawSugar": 21, "cane": 12.45, "agro": 13.175, "agroDisplayRounded": 13.2 } }, "implementationNote": "Read-only published research. No sliders, editable assumptions or implied current quotes." }, "palmModel": { "title": "Our published palm-oil activation framework", "publishedDate": "2026-09-08", "source": { "id": "issue-8", "title": "Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition", "url": "/newsletters/issue-8.pdf", "published": "2026-09-08", "pages": "4–10", "type": "Published author model" }, "window": "After ENSO peak confirmation; Q1 2027 into 2027", "activation": [ "Peak confirmed by the climate agencies.", "MPOB stocks turn down from the Q4 seasonal high while fruit-bunch yields fall year on year.", "CPO remains above RM4,500/t through the production peak." ], "invalidate": [ "Malaysian stocks above 3.0 Mt and CPO below RM4,200/t indicate the trade is early." ], "priceTarget": null, "valuation": "No numerical planter valuation was published. Use company-level CPO realization after levies, crop volume, cost per hectare and debt to build the next investment bridge.", "historicalContext": { "postPeakSixMonthMedianPct": 12, "sampleSize": 4, "reference": "Original event study in Issue 8; historical tendency, not an expected return forecast." } }, "regionAudit": { "checked": "2026-09-13", "scope": "All country/region labels across seven commodities", "status": "Source-backed geography or conservative country totals", "counts": { "specific": 18, "countryOnly": 49, "aggregates": 10 }, "corrections": [ "Indonesia sugar: replaced palm-growing Sumatra/Kalimantan profile with East Java, Lampung and Central Java.", "Thailand sugar: restricted to cane geography, northeast/lower north.", "Thailand palm oil: restricted to southern palm-growing geography.", "Removed unverified subnational labels, separated EU bloc totals and Other aggregates, and attached explicit references to retained crop-specific regions." ], "note": "Geographic references can predate the production forecast; their numerical regional shares are not carried into this model." } }