{ "as_of": "2026-09-13", "commodities": [ { "id": "sugar", "name": "Raw sugar", "title_zh": null, "period": "2026/27 marketing year", "previous_period": "2025/26", "basis": "USDA forecast", "unit": "million metric tonnes, raw value", "production": 184.854, "consumption": 179.991, "ending_stocks": 44.41, "exports": 62.324, "published_period": "2026-05", "public_date": null, "captured": "2026-09-13", "review_status": "Transcribed and reconciled against published tables", "source_id": "usda-sugar", "source_url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf", "source_file": "/data/climate/usda-sugar-may-2026.pdf", "version": "7f3e2b821ae3393376431ca9da804593d7c46df01121267e211566fb0927dfd8", "method": "USDA table in 1,000 metric tonnes divided by 1,000. Country marketing years differ. Exports not individually reported are null.", "countries": [ { "iso": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "production": 42.5, "previous_production": 43.8, "exports": 33.6, "region_profile": { "regions": "Centre-South cane belt; São Paulo and surrounding states", "weather": "Rainfall effects vary within Brazil. Harvest rain can interrupt crushing; moisture during growth can support yields. ENSO alone does not set the sign.", "crop": "Track cane tonnes, recoverable sugar and the sugar / ethanol mix separately.", "trade": "Brazil supplies over half of forecast world sugar exports. A change in sugar allocation can offset weather effects.", "companies": "AGRO: realized sugar price × unhedged volume, less crop and processing costs; ethanol, FX and hedges can offset. CANE: contract basket and roll yield determine investor return.", "invalidator": "Stable crush, improving sugar recovery or higher sugar mix despite the climate signal.", "watch": "UNICA fortnightly crush / ATR, port exports, ethanol parity", "lag": "Current crushing season; next crop for accumulated water stress" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "IND", "name": "India", "production": 33.6, "previous_production": 30, "exports": 3.6, "region_profile": { "regions": "Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka; country total shown", "weather": "El Niño can weaken the southwest monsoon; IOD, irrigation and local rainfall can offset that tendency.", "crop": "Soil moisture and reservoir levels affect cane growth and recovery. Area and ethanol diversion remain separate drivers.", "trade": "Domestic stocks and policy decide whether a production shortfall becomes an export loss. Gross sugar and net-after-ethanol estimates are not automatically comparable.", "companies": "CANE / AGRO are indirect research exposures through the world sugar balance. No Indian mill earnings are estimated here.", "invalidator": "Reservoir recovery, strong state-level yields or exports remaining available.", "watch": "IMD rain / reservoirs, ISMA gross and net output, DGFT export notices", "lag": "Monsoon to harvest: several months; policy can reprice futures sooner" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "EU", "name": "European Union", "production": 14.353, "previous_production": 15.519, "exports": 0.858, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "CHN", "name": "China", "production": 12.7, "previous_production": 12.6, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "production": 9.5, "previous_production": 11.258, "exports": 6, "region_profile": { "regions": "Cane: northeast and central Thailand. Oil palm: southern Thailand", "weather": "A dry anomaly is a risk to cane growth, not an automatic yield forecast. The USDA sugar baseline also reflects planted-area decisions.", "crop": "Separate cane acreage, yield and sugar recovery; palm follows a different crop calendar.", "trade": "Export availability transmits to raw-sugar supply, conditioned by stocks and domestic consumption.", "companies": "CANE: indirect futures exposure. AGRO: potential realized-price benefit offset by its own operating conditions.", "invalidator": "Normal local rain or reduced exports met by inventory releases elsewhere.", "watch": "OCSB cane/crush, Thai exports, rainfall and soil moisture", "lag": "Growing season into crush and export schedule" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "USA", "name": "United States", "production": 7.993, "previous_production": 8.382, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "PAK", "name": "Pakistan", "production": 6.91, "previous_production": 7.06, "exports": 0.3, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "RUS", "name": "Russia", "production": 6.25, "previous_production": 7, "exports": 0.551, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "MEX", "name": "Mexico", "production": 5.451, "previous_production": 5.49, "exports": 0.949, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "AUS", "name": "Australia", "production": 4.18, "previous_production": 3.83, "exports": 3.607, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "TUR", "name": "Turkey", "production": 3.05, "previous_production": 2.9, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "EGY", "name": "Egypt", "production": 3, "previous_production": 3.18, "exports": 0.3, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "GTM", "name": "Guatemala", "production": 2.81, "previous_production": 2.681, "exports": 1.685, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "production": 2.5, "previous_production": 2.7, "exports": null, "region_profile": { "regions": "Sumatra and Kalimantan; country total shown", "weather": "El Niño favors drier conditions in Indonesia. Check local rainfall and soil moisture before inferring crop stress.", "crop": "Drought can reduce fresh-fruit-bunch output with a delay; the USDA 2024 report linked the prior drought to subsequent production weakness.", "trade": "Exports depend on biodiesel demand, levies, domestic requirements and competing oils as well as output.", "companies": "Upstream plantations may gain price but lose crop volume; integrated processors face higher feedstock costs. Net public-equity effect is unquantified.", "invalidator": "Rain normalizes, fruit-bunch yield holds, or stocks / competing oils replace lost supply.", "watch": "GAPKI output / stocks, rainfall, biodiesel allocation, export rules", "lag": "Subsequent crop periods; no fixed universal lag assumed" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "COL", "name": "Colombia", "production": 2.4, "previous_production": 2.3, "exports": 0.73, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "ZAF", "name": "South Africa", "production": 2.06, "previous_production": 2.016, "exports": 0.75, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "production": 2, "previous_production": 1.835, "exports": 0.6, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "PHL", "name": "Philippines", "production": 1.93, "previous_production": 1.95, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "IRN", "name": "Iran", "production": 1.8, "previous_production": 1.8, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "production": 1.49, "previous_production": 1.49, "exports": 0.701, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "PER", "name": "Peru", "production": 1.35, "previous_production": 1.3, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "VNM", "name": "Vietnam", "production": 1.35, "previous_production": 1.35, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "GBR", "name": "United Kingdom", "production": 1.025, "previous_production": 1.175, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "KEN", "name": "Kenya", "production": 0.85, "previous_production": 0.605, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "JPN", "name": "Japan", "production": 0.74, "previous_production": 0.7, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other", "production": 13.062, "previous_production": 13.135, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null } ] }, { "id": "palm", "name": "Palm oil", "title_zh": null, "period": "2026/27 marketing year", "previous_period": "2025/26", "basis": "USDA forecast", "unit": "million metric tonnes", "production": 81.121, "consumption": 79.269, "ending_stocks": 14.472, "exports": 45.261, "published_period": "2026-09", "public_date": null, "captured": "2026-09-13", "review_status": "Transcribed and reconciled against published tables", "source_id": "usda-palm", "source_url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf", "source_file": "/data/climate/usda-oilseeds-september-2026.pdf", "version": "4df2f2ed14c4711030e6ed88b5eb226db4d20725176118736a2e3fb36749eb28", "method": "USDA table in 1,000 metric tonnes divided by 1,000. Country marketing years differ. Exports not individually reported are null.", "countries": [ { "iso": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "production": 47.2, "previous_production": 46.7, "exports": 23.5, "region_profile": { "regions": "Sumatra and Kalimantan; country total shown", "weather": "El Niño favors drier conditions in Indonesia. Check local rainfall and soil moisture before inferring crop stress.", "crop": "Drought can reduce fresh-fruit-bunch output with a delay; the USDA 2024 report linked the prior drought to subsequent production weakness.", "trade": "Exports depend on biodiesel demand, levies, domestic requirements and competing oils as well as output.", "companies": "Upstream plantations may gain price but lose crop volume; integrated processors face higher feedstock costs. Net public-equity effect is unquantified.", "invalidator": "Rain normalizes, fruit-bunch yield holds, or stocks / competing oils replace lost supply.", "watch": "GAPKI output / stocks, rainfall, biodiesel allocation, export rules", "lag": "Subsequent crop periods; no fixed universal lag assumed" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "MYS", "name": "Malaysia", "production": 19.6, "previous_production": 20.2, "exports": 15.9, "region_profile": { "regions": "Sabah, Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia; country total shown", "weather": "Local drought and heat can stress oil palms. Rainfall timing and labor availability can change realized harvesting.", "crop": "Separate fresh-fruit-bunch yield, extraction rate and harvested area.", "trade": "MPOB stocks, exports and Indonesian supply jointly determine balance tightness.", "companies": "Plantation segment earnings depend on price × harvested volume less costs; refiners may face margin compression. Company sensitivity needs segment disclosures.", "invalidator": "Yield recovery, higher inventories or weak export demand.", "watch": "MPOB monthly production / stocks, rainfall, export shipments", "lag": "Crop and inventory cycles, with delayed drought effects" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "production": 3.72, "previous_production": 3.9, "exports": 1, "region_profile": { "regions": "Cane: northeast and central Thailand. Oil palm: southern Thailand", "weather": "A dry anomaly is a risk to cane growth, not an automatic yield forecast. The USDA sugar baseline also reflects planted-area decisions.", "crop": "Separate cane acreage, yield and sugar recovery; palm follows a different crop calendar.", "trade": "Export availability transmits to raw-sugar supply, conditioned by stocks and domestic consumption.", "companies": "CANE: indirect futures exposure. AGRO: potential realized-price benefit offset by its own operating conditions.", "invalidator": "Normal local rain or reduced exports met by inventory releases elsewhere.", "watch": "OCSB cane/crush, Thai exports, rainfall and soil moisture", "lag": "Growing season into crush and export schedule" }, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "COL", "name": "Colombia", "production": 2, "previous_production": 2, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "NGA", "name": "Nigeria", "production": 1.5, "previous_production": 1.5, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null }, { "iso": "OTHER", "name": "Other", "production": 7.101, "previous_production": 7.142, "exports": null, "region_profile": null, "subnational_production": null } ] } ], "mechanism_sources": [ { "title": "NOAA · ENSO crop-yield mechanisms", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-conductor-global-crop-yields" }, { "title": "NOAA · Indian monsoon is not a deterministic ENSO response", "url": "https://content-drupal.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/will-el-ni%C3%B1o-dry-out-indian-monsoon-well-it%E2%80%99s-complicated" }, { "title": "USDA · Indonesia oilseeds update, 2024", "url": "https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2024-0022.pdf" } ], "model_note": "Transmission narratives are research synthesis pending author review. Scenario shocks are user assumptions, not ENSO yield or price forecasts." }