{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "asOf": "2026-09-13",
  "title": "AI capital: buyers, buildout and the next cycle",
  "unit": "USD billions",
  "forecastLabel": "Our house scenarios",
  "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
  "historicalCashReference": {
    "url": "/data/industry/capex.json",
    "periodEnd": "2026-06-30",
    "companyCount": 4,
    "total": 165.05,
    "basis": "Same-quarter gross cash PP&E; unchanged source-backed historical comparator"
  },
  "methodology": {
    "summary": "Reported actuals and management guidance retain each issuer's accounting definition and fiscal period. The ten-company future series is a modeled calendar-year investment envelope using explicit company scenarios, not a reconciled cash PP&E total or an AI-only market-size estimate.",
    "guidance": "Guidance is the company's expectation as of its source date, not consensus. Where first-party call text was inaccessible, a clearly identified reproduced issuer transcript, syndicated issuer presentation or newswire account is linked. No 2027–29 street consensus was available and none is fabricated.",
    "houseView": "These numeric forecasts were newly drafted for this site on September 13, 2026. They extend the original Ideas' demand-to-memory-to-equipment and power-constraint reasoning; they are not historical published Alex Chen forecasts. Base, downside and upside have no assigned probabilities.",
    "calendarAlignment": "Microsoft's $175bn guide is explicitly CY2026. Oracle's $90–95bn guide is FY2027 ending May 31; its CY2026 house estimate uses a separately explained quarterly bridge. Alibaba's March-end fiscal actuals remain separate from its calendar house estimates. All other modeled years run January–December.",
    "fx": "CNY house projections use a constant 6.7851 CNY per USD, the June 30, 2026 convenience translation rate cited in Baidu's release. This is a scenario assumption for future years, not an FX forecast. Historical actuals stay in original currency.",
    "aggregation": "Only houseForecast values are summed for the annual envelope. Differences in gross/net, cash/accrual, finance leases and construction-in-progress definitions remain. Intercompany leases or shared projects may represent overlapping underlying assets, so this is a budget monitoring sum, not an audited or deduplicated economic-investment total. Changes reflect the stated model assumptions.",
    "doubleCounting": "Cloud procurement commitments, customer prepayments, financing announcements, supplier revenues, foundry capital budgets and landlords' spend are not added to the buyer total. A supplier's sale may already include memory or components bought from another supplier.",
    "relationships": "Paths show operational transmission and relevant companies. Only sourced relationships are labeled disclosed; no inferred supplier allocation dollars are published. Supplier membership is not a buy recommendation.",
    "excluded": "Private-company spending without comparable published financials—including OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and ByteDance—is not assigned a numeric contribution. Their workload demand is visible in the software layer. Multi-year pledges are not treated as one-year expenditure."
  },
  "scenarioDefinitions": [
    {
      "id": "bear",
      "label": "Downside · digestion",
      "description": "Delivery slips, monetization or funding disappoints, and major buyers reduce the next year's orders. Lower hardware spending can coexist with continuing software usage growth."
    },
    {
      "id": "base",
      "label": "Base · growth moderates",
      "description": "Demand supports another expansion year, then utilization, custom silicon and fleet maturity reduce the growth rate. Memory and power remain important constraints."
    },
    {
      "id": "bull",
      "label": "Upside · accelerated deployment",
      "description": "Paid agent workloads, capacity delivery and financing all improve; hardware demand and component prices keep dollar investment high. This is an upside condition, not a probability claim."
    }
  ],
  "ourView": [
    {
      "title": "The level can rise while growth slows",
      "text": "Base investment rises from $950.5bn in 2026 to $1,510.2bn in 2029, while annual growth decelerates. The stock-market question is which part of this path is already priced in, not simply whether dollars rise."
    },
    {
      "title": "Supplier opportunity is not proportional to total CapEx",
      "text": "Custom silicon, HBM content, networking architecture and rack power can redistribute revenue. The flow map therefore follows physical dependencies without inventing vendor shares."
    },
    {
      "title": "Deployment matters more than press-release capacity",
      "text": "Track energized power, delivered hardware and paying utilization. A funded project or long-term cloud commitment can precede cash generation by years."
    }
  ],
  "originalResearch": [
    {
      "label": "Original semicap Idea: memory profits can lead equipment orders",
      "url": "/research#theses",
      "date": "2026-08-25",
      "kind": "author-archive"
    },
    {
      "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
      "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
      "date": "2026-04-24",
      "kind": "author-archive"
    }
  ],
  "companies": [
    {
      "id": "msft",
      "name": "Microsoft",
      "ticker": "MSFT",
      "role": "US hyperscaler",
      "color": "#3676d9",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2024-07-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-06-30",
          "value": 64.551,
          "low": 64.551,
          "high": 64.551,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Cash additions to PP&E; fiscal year, excludes finance leases",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Microsoft FY2025 annual report",
            "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar25/index.html",
            "date": "2025-07-30",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
          "value": 175,
          "low": 175,
          "high": 175,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Management CapEx includes finance leases; operating leases excluded",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call",
            "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4",
            "date": "2026-07-29",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 175,
        "low": 175,
        "high": 175,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Management CapEx includes finance leases; operating leases excluded",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call",
          "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4",
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 35.802,
        "currency": "USD",
        "basis": "Gross cash PP&E",
        "source": {
          "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call",
          "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4",
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 175,
          "bear": 165,
          "bull": 185
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 218.75,
          "bear": 156.75,
          "bull": 249.75
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 251.562,
          "bear": 141.075,
          "bull": 312.188
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 276.718,
          "bear": 145.307,
          "bull": 359.016
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.25,
          "bear": -0.05,
          "bull": 0.35
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.25
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.1,
          "bear": 0.03,
          "bull": 0.15
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "CY2026 uses the current $175bn management guide. This is already a calendar-year figure; do not label it FY2027. The July useful-life update shifts some future leases to operating classification; the lower reported guide does not mean the underlying investment plan fell.",
      "thesis": "Enterprise inference and Azure capacity expand; internal silicon and software efficiency moderate spending growth after 2027.",
      "risks": [
        "Capacity delivery and customer monetization",
        "Finance versus operating lease classification",
        "Short-lived hardware order flexibility"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Current CY2026 management guide",
        "bear": "USD 10bn of timing slips versus guide",
        "bull": "USD 10bn of faster delivery or component inflation above guide"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 175,
        "low": 175,
        "high": 175,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Management CapEx includes finance leases; operating leases excluded",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call",
          "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4",
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2024-07-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-06-30",
        "value": 64.551,
        "low": 64.551,
        "high": 64.551,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Cash additions to PP&E; fiscal year, excludes finance leases",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Microsoft FY2025 annual report",
          "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar25/index.html",
          "date": "2025-07-30",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "meta",
      "name": "Meta Platforms",
      "ticker": "META",
      "role": "US hyperscaler",
      "color": "#8462d1",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 72.22,
          "low": 72.22,
          "high": 72.22,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "PP&E plus principal payments on finance leases",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Meta FY2025 results",
            "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results/",
            "date": "2026-01-28",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
          "value": 137.5,
          "low": 130,
          "high": 145,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "PP&E plus finance-lease principal payments",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "Meta Q2 2026 results and outlook",
            "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
            "date": "2026-07-29",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 137.5,
        "low": 130,
        "high": 145,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "PP&E plus finance-lease principal payments",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta Q2 2026 results and outlook",
          "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 30.116,
        "currency": "USD",
        "basis": "Gross cash PP&E",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta Q2 2026 results and outlook",
          "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 137.5,
          "bear": 130,
          "bull": 145
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 165,
          "bear": 117,
          "bull": 195.75
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 184.8,
          "bear": 105.3,
          "bull": 238.815
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 199.584,
          "bear": 105.3,
          "bull": 274.637
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.2,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.35
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.12,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.22
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.08,
          "bear": 0,
          "bull": 0.15
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "Calendar-year guidance midpoint anchors the base; guidance endpoints anchor 2026 scenarios. The measure includes cash principal on finance leases, unlike the historical four-company gross PP&E chart.",
      "thesis": "Advertising monetization funds AI deployment; the base case allows growth to slow as the installed fleet catches up with research and recommendation workloads.",
      "risks": [
        "Advertising cash conversion",
        "Model training versus inference allocation",
        "Data-center delivery and component inflation"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Midpoint of management range",
        "bear": "Low end of management range",
        "bull": "High end of management range"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 137.5,
        "low": 130,
        "high": 145,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "PP&E plus finance-lease principal payments",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta Q2 2026 results and outlook",
          "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 72.22,
        "low": 72.22,
        "high": 72.22,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "PP&E plus principal payments on finance leases",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta FY2025 results",
          "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results/",
          "date": "2026-01-28",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "amzn",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "ticker": "AMZN",
      "role": "US hyperscaler",
      "color": "#c88332",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 131.819,
          "low": 131.819,
          "high": 131.819,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Gross cash purchases of PP&E; net of sales/incentives was 128.320",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Amazon FY2025 results and cash-flow statement",
            "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/",
            "date": "2026-02-05",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
          "value": 220,
          "low": 220,
          "high": 220,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Company-wide management spending plan, including non-AI assets",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "Amazon CEO's Q2 call spending update, reported by AP",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/article/b4ce02b4666a35b8975823c5c22072ee",
            "date": "2026-07-30",
            "kind": "management-statement-reported-by-newswire"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 220,
        "low": 220,
        "high": 220,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company-wide management spending plan, including non-AI assets",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Amazon CEO's Q2 call spending update, reported by AP",
          "url": "https://apnews.com/article/b4ce02b4666a35b8975823c5c22072ee",
          "date": "2026-07-30",
          "kind": "management-statement-reported-by-newswire"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 54.208,
        "currency": "USD",
        "basis": "Gross cash PP&E",
        "source": {
          "label": "Amazon Q2 2026 results",
          "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/",
          "date": "2026-07-30",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 220,
          "bear": 200,
          "bull": 235
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 264,
          "bear": 180,
          "bull": 305.5
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 303.6,
          "bear": 165.6,
          "bull": 372.71
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 333.96,
          "bear": 170.568,
          "bull": 428.616
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.2,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": -0.08,
          "bull": 0.22
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.1,
          "bear": 0.03,
          "bull": 0.15
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "The July call update to $220bn is reported by AP; its gross/net reconciliation is not provided there. The house series is a management-defined investment envelope, not a cash-flow forecast. Robotics, fulfillment and satellites remain in the company total.",
      "thesis": "AWS deployment and custom silicon support the base; memory inflation can raise dollar CapEx without a proportional increase in useful compute.",
      "risks": [
        "AWS capacity utilization",
        "Memory pricing versus physical volume",
        "Non-AI capital intensity"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "July management spending update",
        "bear": "Return to the earlier USD 200bn plan",
        "bull": "USD 15bn above the July plan through faster delivery or inflation"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 220,
        "low": 220,
        "high": 220,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company-wide management spending plan, including non-AI assets",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Amazon CEO's Q2 call spending update, reported by AP",
          "url": "https://apnews.com/article/b4ce02b4666a35b8975823c5c22072ee",
          "date": "2026-07-30",
          "kind": "management-statement-reported-by-newswire"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 131.819,
        "low": 131.819,
        "high": 131.819,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Gross cash purchases of PP&E; net of sales/incentives was 128.320",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Amazon FY2025 results and cash-flow statement",
          "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/",
          "date": "2026-02-05",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "googl",
      "name": "Alphabet",
      "ticker": "GOOGL",
      "role": "US hyperscaler",
      "color": "#28a17f",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 91.4,
          "low": 91.4,
          "high": 91.4,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Cash purchases of PP&E, rounded as stated in the annual report",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Alphabet 2025 annual report",
            "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000130817926000344/goog014907-ars.pdf",
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
          "value": 200,
          "low": 195,
          "high": 205,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Management annual CapEx outlook",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "Alphabet CFO's Q2 2026 call transcript",
            "url": "https://goodmoat.com/stocks/goog/transcripts/2026-year/2-quarter",
            "date": "2026-07-22",
            "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 200,
        "low": 195,
        "high": 205,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Management annual CapEx outlook",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alphabet CFO's Q2 2026 call transcript",
          "url": "https://goodmoat.com/stocks/goog/transcripts/2026-year/2-quarter",
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 44.924,
        "currency": "USD",
        "basis": "Gross cash PP&E",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings release filed with SEC",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm",
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 200,
          "bear": 195,
          "bull": 205
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 250,
          "bear": 185.25,
          "bull": 287
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 287.5,
          "bear": 166.725,
          "bull": 358.75
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 316.25,
          "bear": 170.059,
          "bull": 423.325
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.25,
          "bear": -0.05,
          "bull": 0.4
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.25
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.1,
          "bear": 0.02,
          "bull": 0.18
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "The $195–205bn range is in the CFO's Q2 call transcript reproduced by a third-party host; the SEC earnings release separately verifies actual cash PP&E. The base is the guidance midpoint. 2027–29 numbers below are our assumptions, not company dollar guidance.",
      "thesis": "Cloud, search and model serving share the infrastructure budget. A larger TPU mix changes the supplier opportunity even when aggregate spending grows.",
      "risks": [
        "Cloud monetization and backlog conversion",
        "TPU versus purchased GPU mix",
        "Capacity delivered rather than announced"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Midpoint of management range",
        "bear": "Low end of management range",
        "bull": "High end of management range"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 200,
        "low": 195,
        "high": 205,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Management annual CapEx outlook",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alphabet CFO's Q2 2026 call transcript",
          "url": "https://goodmoat.com/stocks/goog/transcripts/2026-year/2-quarter",
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 91.4,
        "low": 91.4,
        "high": 91.4,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Cash purchases of PP&E, rounded as stated in the annual report",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alphabet 2025 annual report",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000130817926000344/goog014907-ars.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "orcl",
      "name": "Oracle",
      "ticker": "ORCL",
      "role": "US hyperscaler",
      "color": "#b65966",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2025-06-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-05-31",
          "value": 55.663,
          "low": 55.663,
          "high": 55.663,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Reported gross capital expenditure; net cash funding outlay 47.726",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Oracle Q1 FY2027 results and CapEx funding reconciliation",
            "url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Q1-Results-Driven-by-Triple-Digit-Growth-in-Cloud-Infrastructure-Revenues/default.aspx",
            "date": "2026-09-10",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "periodStart": "2026-06-01",
          "periodEnd": "2027-05-31",
          "value": 92.5,
          "low": 90,
          "high": 95,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Reported CapEx outlook; net Oracle cash CapEx no more than 70",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "Oracle CFO's Q1 FY2027 call transcript",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oracle-orcl-q1-2027-earnings-135832086.html",
            "date": "2026-09-11",
            "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2027,
        "periodStart": "2026-06-01",
        "periodEnd": "2027-05-31",
        "value": 92.5,
        "low": 90,
        "high": 95,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Reported CapEx outlook; net Oracle cash CapEx no more than 70",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Oracle CFO's Q1 FY2027 call transcript",
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oracle-orcl-q1-2027-earnings-135832086.html",
          "date": "2026-09-11",
          "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-08-31",
        "value": 28.499,
        "currency": "USD",
        "basis": "Reported gross CapEx; net funding outlay17.966",
        "source": {
          "label": "Oracle Q1 FY2027 results and CapEx funding reconciliation",
          "url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Q1-Results-Driven-by-Triple-Digit-Growth-in-Cloud-Infrastructure-Revenues/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-09-10",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 85,
          "bear": 73,
          "bull": 98
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 106.25,
          "bear": 62.05,
          "bull": 137.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 122.187,
          "bear": 52.742,
          "bull": 178.36
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 131.962,
          "bear": 52.742,
          "bull": 214.032
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.25,
          "bear": -0.15,
          "bull": 0.4
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": -0.15,
          "bull": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.08,
          "bear": 0,
          "bull": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "CY2026 base $85bn is our estimate: Jan–Feb $12.423bn (two-thirds of FY26 Q3), Mar–May $16.493bn, Jun–Aug $28.499bn actual, Sep–Dec $27.585bn assumed. The fiscal guide of $90–95bn is shown separately and is never relabeled as CY2026. Customer prepayments reduce funding needs, not the gross asset bill.",
      "thesis": "OCI converts contracted demand into installed hardware. The base assumes delivery remains strong but the pace moderates as project size and funding commitments rise.",
      "risks": [
        "Customer prepayments and counterparty concentration",
        "Construction schedules",
        "Gross spend versus net funding burden"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Quarterly CY bridge explained in normalization",
        "bear": "USD 12bn less CY spending from project timing",
        "bull": "USD 13bn more CY spending from faster acceptance"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2027,
        "periodStart": "2026-06-01",
        "periodEnd": "2027-05-31",
        "value": 92.5,
        "low": 90,
        "high": 95,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Reported CapEx outlook; net Oracle cash CapEx no more than 70",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Oracle CFO's Q1 FY2027 call transcript",
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oracle-orcl-q1-2027-earnings-135832086.html",
          "date": "2026-09-11",
          "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": null
    },
    {
      "id": "crwv",
      "name": "CoreWeave",
      "ticker": "CRWV",
      "role": "Specialist AI cloud",
      "color": "#256c85",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 14.9,
          "low": 14.9,
          "high": 14.9,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "PP&E additions plus finance-lease assets, less changes in construction in progress",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "CoreWeave Q4 2025 earnings presentation, issuer publication",
            "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/coreweave-fourth-quarter-2025-q4a-25-earnings-presentation-ce7e5cd9d08bf120",
            "date": "2026-02-26",
            "kind": "issuer-presentation-syndicated"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
          "value": 37,
          "low": 35,
          "high": 39,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Company-defined CapEx; includes finance-lease assets and adjusts construction in progress",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "CoreWeave Q2 2026 outlook presentation, unaltered issuer publication",
            "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/coreweave-second-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-q2-and-fy-2026-outlook-presentation-ce7859dbde81ff21",
            "date": "2026-08-11",
            "kind": "issuer-presentation-syndicated"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 37,
        "low": 35,
        "high": 39,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company-defined CapEx; includes finance-lease assets and adjusts construction in progress",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "CoreWeave Q2 2026 outlook presentation, unaltered issuer publication",
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/coreweave-second-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-q2-and-fy-2026-outlook-presentation-ce7859dbde81ff21",
          "date": "2026-08-11",
          "kind": "issuer-presentation-syndicated"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": null,
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 37,
          "bear": 35,
          "bull": 39
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 49.95,
          "bear": 28,
          "bull": 60.45
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 62.438,
          "bear": 23.8,
          "bull": 81.608
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 71.804,
          "bear": 23.8,
          "bull": 97.93
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.35,
          "bear": -0.2,
          "bull": 0.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.25,
          "bear": -0.15,
          "bull": 0.35
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": 0,
          "bull": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "2026 guide midpoint anchors the base. CoreWeave's measure is not cash purchases in the cash-flow statement. The same method is retained for its house projection.",
      "thesis": "Signed deployment demand supports fast initial growth; delivery, utilization and financing terms determine whether the capital earns an adequate return.",
      "risks": [
        "Customer and funding concentration",
        "Powered-shell delivery",
        "GPU residual values"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Midpoint of management range",
        "bear": "Low end of management range",
        "bull": "High end of management range"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 37,
        "low": 35,
        "high": 39,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company-defined CapEx; includes finance-lease assets and adjusts construction in progress",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "CoreWeave Q2 2026 outlook presentation, unaltered issuer publication",
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/coreweave-second-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call-q2-and-fy-2026-outlook-presentation-ce7859dbde81ff21",
          "date": "2026-08-11",
          "kind": "issuer-presentation-syndicated"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 14.9,
        "low": 14.9,
        "high": 14.9,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "PP&E additions plus finance-lease assets, less changes in construction in progress",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "CoreWeave Q4 2025 earnings presentation, issuer publication",
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/coreweave-fourth-quarter-2025-q4a-25-earnings-presentation-ce7e5cd9d08bf120",
          "date": "2026-02-26",
          "kind": "issuer-presentation-syndicated"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "nbis",
      "name": "Nebius",
      "ticker": "NBIS",
      "role": "Specialist AI cloud",
      "color": "#5483b9",
      "geography": "Global",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
          "value": 22.5,
          "low": 20,
          "high": 25,
          "currency": "USD",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Company CapEx outlook for GPUs, associated hardware and data centers",
          "status": "management-guidance",
          "source": {
            "label": "Nebius CFO's Q2 2026 call transcript",
            "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/19/nebius-nbis-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
            "date": "2026-08-19",
            "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 22.5,
        "low": 20,
        "high": 25,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company CapEx outlook for GPUs, associated hardware and data centers",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Nebius CFO's Q2 2026 call transcript",
          "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/19/nebius-nbis-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
          "date": "2026-08-19",
          "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 5.7,
        "currency": "USD",
        "basis": "Company-reported CapEx, rounded",
        "source": {
          "label": "Nebius Q2 2026 shareholder letter",
          "url": "https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a6ecfd85-a6cb-4967-8ef7-9a25bd261f9c/SHLQ226.pdf",
          "date": "2026-08-12",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 22.5,
          "bear": 20,
          "bull": 25
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 34.875,
          "bear": 15,
          "bull": 45
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 47.081,
          "bear": 13.5,
          "bull": 67.5
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 56.497,
          "bear": 13.5,
          "bull": 87.75
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.55,
          "bear": -0.25,
          "bull": 0.8
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.35,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.5
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.2,
          "bear": 0,
          "bull": 0.3
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "2026 guidance is reproduced from the CFO's call; the primary shareholder letter confirms all-metric guidance was reaffirmed and reports Q2 spending near $5.7bn. No 2025 annual value is filled without a completed reconciliation.",
      "thesis": "Growth from a smaller footprint stays faster than the mature clouds in the base, then slows. Contracted power is a pipeline measure and does not substitute for energized capacity.",
      "risks": [
        "Customer prepayments and capital access",
        "Contracted versus energized power",
        "Construction and commissioning execution"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Disclosed links are individually sourced. Other companies are thematic exposure; supplier dollars and market shares are not assigned.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Midpoint of management range",
        "bear": "Low end of management range",
        "bull": "High end of management range"
      },
      "guidance": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2026-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-12-31",
        "value": 22.5,
        "low": 20,
        "high": 25,
        "currency": "USD",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company CapEx outlook for GPUs, associated hardware and data centers",
        "status": "management-guidance",
        "source": {
          "label": "Nebius CFO's Q2 2026 call transcript",
          "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/19/nebius-nbis-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
          "date": "2026-08-19",
          "kind": "issuer-call-transcript-third-party-host"
        }
      },
      "annual2025": null
    },
    {
      "id": "baba",
      "name": "Alibaba",
      "ticker": "BABA",
      "role": "China platform",
      "color": "#bd7445",
      "geography": "China",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2024-04-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-03-31",
          "value": 85.972,
          "low": 85.972,
          "high": 85.972,
          "currency": "CNY",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Company-reported capital expenditures; fiscal year ended March",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Alibaba annual report for fiscal year ended March 2026",
            "url": "https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0618/2026061800844.pdf",
            "date": "2026-06-18",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "periodStart": "2025-04-01",
          "periodEnd": "2026-03-31",
          "value": 126.063,
          "low": 126.063,
          "high": 126.063,
          "currency": "CNY",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Company-reported capital expenditures; fiscal year ended March",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Alibaba annual report for fiscal year ended March 2026",
            "url": "https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0618/2026061800844.pdf",
            "date": "2026-06-18",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2026,
        "periodStart": "2025-04-01",
        "periodEnd": "2026-03-31",
        "value": 126.063,
        "low": 126.063,
        "high": 126.063,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company-reported capital expenditures; fiscal year ended March",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alibaba annual report for fiscal year ended March 2026",
          "url": "https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0618/2026061800844.pdf",
          "date": "2026-06-18",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 67.678,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "usdEquivalent": 9.975,
        "basis": "Company-reported capital expenditures",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alibaba June 2026 results filed with SEC",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000110465926099220/tm2623667d1_ex99-1.htm",
          "date": "2026-08-20",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 40,
          "bear": 32,
          "bull": 46
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 50,
          "bear": 27.2,
          "bull": 66.7
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 60,
          "bear": 25.84,
          "bull": 86.71
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 69,
          "bear": 26.615,
          "bull": 104.052
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.25,
          "bear": -0.15,
          "bull": 0.45
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.2,
          "bear": -0.05,
          "bull": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": 0.03,
          "bull": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "CY2026 USD 40bn is a new house estimate near four times June-quarter spending: RMB 67.678bn / 6.7851 × 4 = USD 39.898bn. Annualization assumes the latest pace can be sustained; it is not management annual guidance and ignores seasonality. Fiscal annual anchors remain in CNY.",
      "thesis": "Cloud AI adoption and inference deployment sustain growth; domestic hardware availability, price competition and e-commerce investment create a wider range.",
      "risks": [
        "Accelerator availability and export controls",
        "Cloud price competition",
        "Other business funding requirements"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz",
        "thead"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Global layer map, not verified procurement. Export controls and domestic alternatives can redirect spending; a named US product is not a claim that shipments are permitted.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "June quarter annualization, rounded",
        "bear": "20% below our annualized base",
        "bull": "15% above our annualized base"
      },
      "guidance": null,
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2024-04-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-03-31",
        "value": 85.972,
        "low": 85.972,
        "high": 85.972,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Company-reported capital expenditures; fiscal year ended March",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alibaba annual report for fiscal year ended March 2026",
          "url": "https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0618/2026061800844.pdf",
          "date": "2026-06-18",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "tencent",
      "name": "Tencent",
      "ticker": "0700.HK",
      "role": "China platform",
      "color": "#4964ad",
      "geography": "China",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 79.2,
          "low": 79.2,
          "high": 79.2,
          "currency": "CNY",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Accrual total CapEx; cash CapEx paid was88.3",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Tencent FY2025 earnings presentation, page 29",
            "url": "https://static.www.tencent.com/uploads/2026/03/18/2804dbdae364ca25b82d21bc8304f1d3.pdf",
            "date": "2026-03-18",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 79.2,
        "low": 79.2,
        "high": 79.2,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Accrual total CapEx; cash CapEx paid was88.3",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Tencent FY2025 earnings presentation, page 29",
          "url": "https://static.www.tencent.com/uploads/2026/03/18/2804dbdae364ca25b82d21bc8304f1d3.pdf",
          "date": "2026-03-18",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 52.8,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "basis": "Accrual total CapEx: operating51.8 plus non-operating1.0",
        "source": {
          "label": "Tencent Q2 2026 earnings presentation, page 26",
          "url": "https://static.www.tencent.com/website-2026-upload/2Q26-earnings-PPT_20260812_1800-88b183.pdf",
          "date": "2026-08-12",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 27,
          "bear": 22,
          "bull": 32
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 33.75,
          "bear": 18.7,
          "bull": 44.8
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 39.825,
          "bear": 17.204,
          "bull": 56
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 44.604,
          "bear": 17.72,
          "bull": 66.08
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.25,
          "bear": -0.15,
          "bull": 0.4
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.18,
          "bear": -0.08,
          "bull": 0.25
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.12,
          "bear": 0.03,
          "bull": 0.18
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "CY2026 USD 27bn is a new house estimate: H1 total CapEx of RMB 84.7bn plus H2 assumed RMB 98.5bn, divided by the fixed 6.7851 scenario rate, rounded. Total CapEx is an accrual measure; do not label it cash paid. There is no numeric annual management guide in the sources used.",
      "thesis": "Games, advertising and cloud create diversified demand for AI capacity. Base growth decelerates as the initial fleet expansion matures.",
      "risks": [
        "Domestic model monetization",
        "GPU supply and custom architectures",
        "Accrual CapEx versus payment timing"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Global layer map, not verified procurement. Export controls and domestic alternatives can redirect spending; a named US product is not a claim that shipments are permitted.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "Reported H1 plus assumed H2, constant FX",
        "bear": "USD 5bn below our base through slower second-half deployment",
        "bull": "USD 5bn above our base through faster second-half deployment"
      },
      "guidance": null,
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 79.2,
        "low": 79.2,
        "high": 79.2,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Accrual total CapEx; cash CapEx paid was88.3",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Tencent FY2025 earnings presentation, page 29",
          "url": "https://static.www.tencent.com/uploads/2026/03/18/2804dbdae364ca25b82d21bc8304f1d3.pdf",
          "date": "2026-03-18",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "bidu",
      "name": "Baidu",
      "ticker": "BIDU",
      "role": "China platform",
      "color": "#6d70a5",
      "geography": "China",
      "reportedAnchors": [
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
          "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 12.073,
          "low": 12.073,
          "high": 12.073,
          "currency": "CNY",
          "unit": "billions",
          "basis": "Capital expenditures in free-cash-flow reconciliation",
          "status": "reported",
          "source": {
            "label": "Baidu FY2025 results",
            "url": "https://ir.baidu.com/news-releases/news-release-details/baidu-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results",
            "date": "2026-02-26",
            "kind": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "reportedAnchor": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 12.073,
        "low": 12.073,
        "high": 12.073,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Capital expenditures in free-cash-flow reconciliation",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Baidu FY2025 results",
          "url": "https://ir.baidu.com/news-releases/news-release-details/baidu-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results",
          "date": "2026-02-26",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "latestQuarter": {
        "quarterEnd": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 11.39,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "usdEquivalent": 1.679,
        "basis": "Capital expenditures in cash-flow reconciliation",
        "source": {
          "label": "Baidu Q2 2026 results and cash-flow reconciliation",
          "url": "https://ir.baidu.com/news-releases/news-release-details/baidu-announces-second-quarter-2026-results",
          "date": "2026-08-18",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      "houseForecast": [
        {
          "year": 2026,
          "base": 6.5,
          "bear": 5,
          "bull": 8
        },
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 7.8,
          "bear": 4,
          "bull": 11.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 8.97,
          "bear": 3.6,
          "bull": 14
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 9.867,
          "bear": 3.6,
          "bull": 16.8
        }
      ],
      "growthAssumptions": [
        {
          "year": 2027,
          "base": 0.2,
          "bear": -0.2,
          "bull": 0.4
        },
        {
          "year": 2028,
          "base": 0.15,
          "bear": -0.1,
          "bull": 0.25
        },
        {
          "year": 2029,
          "base": 0.1,
          "bear": 0,
          "bull": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "normalization": "CY2026 USD 6.5bn is a new house estimate close to four times June-quarter spending: RMB 11.390bn / 6.7851 × 4 = USD 6.715bn, modestly reduced for timing. Annual guidance has not been located; all future values are explicit house scenarios.",
      "thesis": "AI cloud and applications require capacity investment, while the legacy advertising base constrains self-funding. Investment growth alone cannot establish attractive equity returns.",
      "risks": [
        "Legacy advertising cash generation",
        "AI cloud return on capital",
        "Domestic hardware mix and customer concentration"
      ],
      "destinationIds": [
        "compute",
        "memory",
        "network",
        "power",
        "cooling",
        "construction"
      ],
      "forecastStatus": "New house scenario · awaiting author review",
      "forecastUnit": "USD billions",
      "forecastBasis": "Modeled calendar-year investment envelope in each issuer's stated CapEx definition",
      "supplierIds": [
        "nvda",
        "mu",
        "vrt",
        "ceg",
        "amd",
        "avgo",
        "glw",
        "etn",
        "skhynix",
        "samsung",
        "anet",
        "lite",
        "dell",
        "hpe",
        "smci",
        "foxconn",
        "quanta",
        "wistron",
        "wiwynn",
        "ntap",
        "pstg",
        "ibm",
        "ntnx",
        "gev",
        "hubb",
        "eme",
        "agx",
        "acm",
        "mtz",
        "kunlun"
      ],
      "upstreamSupplierIds": [
        "tsm",
        "asml",
        "klac",
        "amat",
        "lrcx"
      ],
      "supplierNote": "Global layer map, not verified procurement. Export controls and domestic alternatives can redirect spending; a named US product is not a claim that shipments are permitted.",
      "anchorAssumptions": {
        "year": 2026,
        "base": "June quarter annualization, modestly discounted for timing",
        "bear": "USD 1.5bn below our base",
        "bull": "USD 1.5bn above our base"
      },
      "guidance": null,
      "annual2025": {
        "year": 2025,
        "periodStart": "2025-01-01",
        "periodEnd": "2025-12-31",
        "value": 12.073,
        "low": 12.073,
        "high": 12.073,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "unit": "billions",
        "basis": "Capital expenditures in free-cash-flow reconciliation",
        "status": "reported",
        "source": {
          "label": "Baidu FY2025 results",
          "url": "https://ir.baidu.com/news-releases/news-release-details/baidu-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results",
          "date": "2026-02-26",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "totals": [
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "base": 950.5,
      "bear": 877,
      "bull": 1018
    },
    {
      "year": 2027,
      "base": 1180.375,
      "bear": 793.95,
      "bull": 1403.35
    },
    {
      "year": 2028,
      "base": 1367.963,
      "bear": 715.386,
      "bull": 1766.641
    },
    {
      "year": 2029,
      "base": 1510.246,
      "bear": 729.211,
      "bull": 2072.238
    }
  ],
  "years": [
    2026,
    2027,
    2028,
    2029
  ],
  "ecosystem": {
    "layers": [
      {
        "id": "software",
        "name": "Applications & orchestration",
        "index": 1,
        "question": "Does the workflow earn money?",
        "mechanism": "Paid tasks and retained users generate inference demand. Better routing and smaller models can lower compute per task.",
        "watch": "Retention, paid usage, cost per successful task and cash collections.",
        "investable": "Software value comes from distribution, workflow ownership and defensible pricing; token growth alone does not establish profit.",
        "type": "operating-demand",
        "lag": "Demand signal; no automatic capital-spend lag"
      },
      {
        "id": "compute",
        "name": "Accelerators & custom silicon",
        "index": 2,
        "question": "Which architecture gets the workload?",
        "mechanism": "Model serving and training map to GPUs, CPUs or custom accelerators. Performance per dollar and software compatibility determine the mix.",
        "watch": "Deployed accelerators, realized pricing, useful utilization and custom-chip adoption.",
        "investable": "NVDA and AMD compete with cloud-designed chips; Broadcom and Marvell can capture custom-silicon and interconnect content.",
        "type": "equipment",
        "lag": "Orders → shipments → acceptance; quarter-level timing varies"
      },
      {
        "id": "memory",
        "name": "Memory & storage",
        "index": 3,
        "question": "Can the system feed the accelerator?",
        "mechanism": "Parameters and KV caches require capacity and bandwidth. HBM, DRAM and storage content differ by workload and architecture.",
        "watch": "HBM qualification, memory content per rack, yields, pricing and storage demand.",
        "investable": "MU, SK hynix and Samsung supply memory; system storage vendors address different parts of the data path.",
        "type": "equipment",
        "lag": "Qualification can precede recognized revenue by several quarters"
      },
      {
        "id": "network",
        "name": "Networking & optics",
        "index": 4,
        "question": "Can the cluster work as one machine?",
        "mechanism": "Distributed training and inference move data between chips, racks and buildings. The bottleneck shifts across scale-up, scale-out and inter-site links.",
        "watch": "Ethernet/InfiniBand mix, optical attach, speed transitions and congestion.",
        "investable": "Switching, optical components and fiber have different revenue pools; combining them as market shares is misleading.",
        "type": "equipment",
        "lag": "Platform transition and datacenter commissioning"
      },
      {
        "id": "manufacturing",
        "name": "Foundry, packaging & equipment",
        "index": 5,
        "question": "Can the physical chips be manufactured?",
        "mechanism": "Logic dies, stacked memory and advanced packaging require process capacity, yield control and tooling.",
        "watch": "Foundry utilization, packaging capacity, memory capex plans and equipment orders.",
        "investable": "TSMC manufactures advanced silicon; AMAT, LRCX, ASML and KLAC monetize manufacturers' capital budgets, a second-order channel.",
        "type": "upstream-reinvestment",
        "lag": "Author's semicap thesis: memory profits may precede equipment orders by 2–4 quarters; hypothesis, not a fixed delay"
      },
      {
        "id": "power",
        "name": "Power generation & distribution",
        "index": 6,
        "question": "Can usable electricity reach the site?",
        "mechanism": "A compute cluster requires grid connections, transformers, switchgear and reliable supply. Electricity agreements are operating purchases rather than PP&E allocation.",
        "watch": "Energized MW, interconnection queue, electrical backlog and installed equipment.",
        "investable": "Equipment makers and utilities have different economics; grid bottlenecks may delay the entire chain.",
        "type": "equipment-and-operating",
        "lag": "Long-lead equipment and grid connections can take years"
      },
      {
        "id": "cooling",
        "name": "Cooling & thermal management",
        "index": 7,
        "question": "Can heat be removed at the required density?",
        "mechanism": "Rack density and architecture determine air versus liquid cooling and thermal infrastructure requirements.",
        "watch": "Qualified architectures, liquid-cooling content, deployment timing and margins.",
        "investable": "VRT and ETN have relevant products; theme exposure is not proof of an award from every cloud.",
        "type": "equipment",
        "lag": "Installed content follows project design and commissioning"
      },
      {
        "id": "construction",
        "name": "Servers, buildings & delivery",
        "index": 8,
        "question": "Does the equipment become operating capacity?",
        "mechanism": "Servers are assembled and installed inside powered facilities; contractors connect mechanical and electrical systems.",
        "watch": "Backlog conversion, commissioning milestones, labor capacity and cash conversion.",
        "investable": "OEMs/ODMs, construction firms and landlords occupy distinct layers; landlord capex is not added to customer spending in this model.",
        "type": "equipment-and-services",
        "lag": "Months to years from site announcement to operating capacity"
      }
    ],
    "suppliers": [
      {
        "id": "nvda",
        "name": "NVIDIA",
        "ticker": "NVDA",
        "layer": "compute",
        "role": "GPU platforms and accelerated-computing systems",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA Blackwell platform partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-blackwell-platform-arrives-to-power-a-new-era-of-computing",
          "date": "2024-03-18"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "tsm",
        "name": "TSMC",
        "ticker": "TSM",
        "layer": "manufacturing",
        "role": "Foundry and advanced-silicon manufacturing",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "Microsoft Maia 200 fabrication disclosure",
          "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/01/26/maia-200-the-ai-accelerator-built-for-inference/",
          "date": "2026-01-26"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "mu",
        "name": "Micron",
        "ticker": "MU",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "HBM, DRAM and datacenter storage",
        "status": "indirect",
        "source": {
          "label": "Micron HBM4, SOCAMM2 and SSD platform disclosure",
          "url": "https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-in-High-Volume-Production-of-HBM4-Designed-for-NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-PCIe-Gen6-SSD-and-SOCAMM2-03-16-2026/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-03-16"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "vrt",
        "name": "Vertiv",
        "ticker": "VRT",
        "layer": "cooling",
        "role": "Power and thermal infrastructure",
        "status": "potential",
        "source": {
          "label": "Vertiv NVIDIA GB300 reference architecture",
          "url": "https://www.vertiv.com/en-emea/about/news-and-events/news-releases/vertiv-develops-energy-efficient-cooling-and-power-reference-architecture-for-the-nvidia-gb300-nvl72/",
          "date": "2025-06-11"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "ceg",
        "name": "Constellation Energy",
        "ticker": "CEG",
        "layer": "power",
        "role": "Electricity supply; operating-power channel",
        "status": "operating",
        "source": {
          "label": "Constellation and Microsoft power agreement",
          "url": "https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2024/Constellation-to-Launch-Crane-Clean-Energy-Center-Restoring-Jobs-and-Carbon-Free-Power-to-The-Grid.html",
          "date": "2024-09-20"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "amd",
        "name": "AMD",
        "ticker": "AMD",
        "layer": "compute",
        "role": "Alternative GPU and CPU platforms",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta compute infrastructure explanation",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/06/what-is-compute-power-meta-ai-infrastructure/",
          "date": "2026-06-10"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "avgo",
        "name": "Broadcom",
        "ticker": "AVGO",
        "layer": "compute",
        "role": "Custom silicon and networking chips",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta MTIA and Broadcom disclosure",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/06/what-is-compute-power-meta-ai-infrastructure/",
          "date": "2026-06-10"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "glw",
        "name": "Corning",
        "ticker": "GLW",
        "layer": "network",
        "role": "Optical fiber and connectivity",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta Corning fiber supply agreement",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/01/meta-6-billion-agreement-corning-support-us-manufacturing/",
          "date": "2026-01-27"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "etn",
        "name": "Eaton",
        "ticker": "ETN",
        "layer": "power",
        "role": "Electrical distribution and cooling products",
        "status": "potential",
        "source": {
          "label": "Eaton AI cooling solutions",
          "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/markets/data-centers/ai-machine-learning/scaling-ai-with-eatons-complete-liquid-cooling-systems.html",
          "date": null
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "skhynix",
        "name": "SK hynix",
        "ticker": "000660.KS",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "High-bandwidth memory and DRAM",
        "status": "product",
        "source": {
          "label": "SK hynix HBM4 development disclosure",
          "url": "https://news.skhynix.com/en/sk-hynix-completes-worlds-first-hbm4-development-and-readies-mass-production/",
          "date": "2025-09-12",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "samsung",
        "name": "Samsung Electronics",
        "ticker": "005930.KS",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "HBM and DRAM; qualification and share must be assessed separately",
        "status": "product",
        "source": {
          "label": "Samsung commercial HBM4 shipments",
          "url": "https://semiconductor.samsung.com/news-events/news/samsung-ships-industry-first-commercial-hbm4-with-ultimate-performance-for-ai-computing/",
          "date": "2026-02-12",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "anet",
        "name": "Arista Networks",
        "ticker": "ANET",
        "layer": "network",
        "role": "Ethernet switching and cluster networking",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "Arista and Meta AI cluster deployment",
          "url": "https://blogs.arista.com/blog/meta-and-arista-build-ai-at-scale",
          "date": null,
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "lite",
        "name": "Lumentum",
        "ticker": "LITE",
        "layer": "network",
        "role": "Lasers and optical components",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA and Lumentum optical partnership",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-strategic-partnership-with-lumentum-to-develop-state-of-the-art-optics-technology",
          "date": "2026-03-02",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "asml",
        "name": "ASML",
        "ticker": "ASML",
        "layer": "manufacturing",
        "role": "Lithography for advanced logic and memory",
        "status": "product",
        "source": {
          "label": "ASML 2025 annual report: AI and HBM investment",
          "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025/financials",
          "date": null,
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "klac",
        "name": "KLA",
        "ticker": "KLAC",
        "layer": "manufacturing",
        "role": "Inspection, metrology and advanced-packaging process control",
        "status": "product",
        "source": {
          "label": "KLA 2026 investor day",
          "url": "https://ir.kla.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/512/kla-hosts-investor-day-announces-7-billion-share",
          "date": "2026-03-12",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "amat",
        "name": "Applied Materials",
        "ticker": "AMAT",
        "layer": "manufacturing",
        "role": "Wafer fabrication and materials engineering; second-order memory investment exposure",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Original semicap Idea: memory profits can lead equipment orders",
          "url": "/research#theses",
          "date": "2026-08-25",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "lrcx",
        "name": "Lam Research",
        "ticker": "LRCX",
        "layer": "manufacturing",
        "role": "Deposition and etch; second-order memory investment exposure",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Original semicap Idea: memory profits can lead equipment orders",
          "url": "/research#theses",
          "date": "2026-08-25",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "dell",
        "name": "Dell Technologies",
        "ticker": "DELL",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "hpe",
        "name": "Hewlett Packard Enterprise",
        "ticker": "HPE",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "smci",
        "name": "Supermicro",
        "ticker": "SMCI",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "foxconn",
        "name": "Hon Hai / Foxconn",
        "ticker": "2317.TW",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "quanta",
        "name": "Quanta Computer / QCT",
        "ticker": "2382.TW",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "wistron",
        "name": "Wistron",
        "ticker": "3231.TW",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "wiwynn",
        "name": "Wiwynn",
        "ticker": "6669.TW",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Server systems, integration or manufacturing in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "ntap",
        "name": "NetApp",
        "ticker": "NTAP",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "Storage or data platform in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "pstg",
        "name": "Pure Storage",
        "ticker": "PSTG",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "Storage or data platform in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "ibm",
        "name": "IBM",
        "ticker": "IBM",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "Storage or data platform in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "ntnx",
        "name": "Nutanix",
        "ticker": "NTNX",
        "layer": "memory",
        "role": "Storage or data platform in NVIDIA's named ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "gev",
        "name": "GE Vernova",
        "ticker": "GEV",
        "layer": "power",
        "role": "Power equipment; industrial exposure discussed in the author's power research",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
          "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "hubb",
        "name": "Hubbell",
        "ticker": "HUBB",
        "layer": "power",
        "role": "Electrical equipment; industrial exposure discussed in the author's power research",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
          "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "eme",
        "name": "EMCOR",
        "ticker": "EME",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Mechanical and electrical contracting; project conversion and cash discipline matter",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
          "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "agx",
        "name": "Argan",
        "ticker": "AGX",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Power-project engineering and construction; award and execution risk",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
          "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "acm",
        "name": "AECOM",
        "ticker": "ACM",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Design and infrastructure services; backlog conversion rather than GPU pricing",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
          "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "mtz",
        "name": "MasTec",
        "ticker": "MTZ",
        "layer": "construction",
        "role": "Infrastructure delivery; exposure and valuation discussed in the original power thesis",
        "status": "author-thesis",
        "source": {
          "label": "Issue 7: power constraints and differentiated industrial exposure",
          "url": "/newsletters/issue-7.pdf",
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "kind": "author-archive"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "crwd",
        "name": "CrowdStrike",
        "ticker": "CRWD",
        "layer": "software",
        "role": "Enterprise software in the NVIDIA platform ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "estc",
        "name": "Elastic",
        "ticker": "ESTC",
        "layer": "software",
        "role": "Enterprise software in the NVIDIA platform ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "cdns",
        "name": "Cadence",
        "ticker": "CDNS",
        "layer": "software",
        "role": "Enterprise software in the NVIDIA platform ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "snps",
        "name": "Synopsys",
        "ticker": "SNPS",
        "layer": "software",
        "role": "Enterprise software in the NVIDIA platform ecosystem",
        "status": "disclosed-ecosystem",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA names system and storage ecosystem partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/_gallery/download_pdf/682aaecb3d633282ef2e0fe5/",
          "date": "2025-05-19",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "thead",
        "name": "Alibaba T-Head",
        "ticker": "BABA",
        "layer": "compute",
        "role": "Domestic silicon platform; not a separately attributed external supplier payment",
        "status": "internal",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alibaba June 2026 results filed with SEC",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000110465926099220/tm2623667d1_ex99-1.htm",
          "date": "2026-08-20",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "kunlun",
        "name": "Baidu Kunlunxin",
        "ticker": "BIDU",
        "layer": "compute",
        "role": "Domestic silicon platform; not a separately attributed external supplier payment",
        "status": "internal",
        "source": {
          "label": "Baidu FY2025 results",
          "url": "https://ir.baidu.com/news-releases/news-release-details/baidu-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results",
          "date": "2026-02-26",
          "kind": "primary"
        }
      }
    ],
    "relationships": [
      {
        "buyerId": "msft",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Azure is a named Blackwell cloud platform partner. No selected-quarter purchase amount is disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA Blackwell platform partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-blackwell-platform-arrives-to-power-a-new-era-of-computing",
          "date": "2024-03-18"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "msft",
        "supplierId": "tsm",
        "layer": "manufacturing",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Microsoft identifies TSMC's 3nm process for Maia 200. Foundry payments and quarterly volumes are not disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Microsoft Maia 200 fabrication disclosure",
          "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/01/26/maia-200-the-ai-accelerator-built-for-inference/",
          "date": "2026-01-26"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "msft",
        "supplierId": "mu",
        "layer": "memory",
        "status": "indirect",
        "explanation": "Micron discloses HBM4 and SOCAMM2 for NVIDIA Vera Rubin and Gen6 SSD integration. This establishes NVIDIA ecosystem exposure, not Microsoft's direct orders.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Micron HBM4, SOCAMM2 and SSD platform disclosure",
          "url": "https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-in-High-Volume-Production-of-HBM4-Designed-for-NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-PCIe-Gen6-SSD-and-SOCAMM2-03-16-2026/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-03-16"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "msft",
        "supplierId": "vrt",
        "layer": "cooling",
        "status": "potential",
        "explanation": "Offers power and cooling reference architectures for NVIDIA systems. A Microsoft procurement award is not established here.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Vertiv NVIDIA GB300 reference architecture",
          "url": "https://www.vertiv.com/en-emea/about/news-and-events/news-releases/vertiv-develops-energy-efficient-cooling-and-power-reference-architecture-for-the-nvidia-gb300-nvl72/",
          "date": "2025-06-11"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "msft",
        "supplierId": "ceg",
        "layer": "power",
        "status": "operating",
        "explanation": "A disclosed 20-year Microsoft power purchase agreement supports the planned Crane nuclear restart. The agreement is not part of the PP&E allocation chart.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Constellation and Microsoft power agreement",
          "url": "https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2024/Constellation-to-Launch-Crane-Clean-Energy-Center-Restoring-Jobs-and-Carbon-Free-Power-to-The-Grid.html",
          "date": "2024-09-20"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Multi-year infrastructure partnership across GPUs, CPUs and networking; payment schedule is not disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta NVIDIA infrastructure partnership",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/02/meta-nvidia-announce-long-term-infrastructure-partnership/",
          "date": "2026-02-17"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "amd",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Meta identifies AMD among its compute partners. The linked disclosure does not assign a share of quarterly CapEx.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta compute infrastructure explanation",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/06/what-is-compute-power-meta-ai-infrastructure/",
          "date": "2026-06-10"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "avgo",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Meta names Broadcom as the co-development partner for multiple MTIA generations; amounts paid are undisclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta MTIA and Broadcom disclosure",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/06/what-is-compute-power-meta-ai-infrastructure/",
          "date": "2026-06-10"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Meta reports adopting the Spectrum-X Ethernet networking platform.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta Spectrum-X adoption",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/02/meta-nvidia-announce-long-term-infrastructure-partnership/",
          "date": "2026-02-17"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "glw",
        "layer": "network",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Up to $6bn multi-year fiber agreement announced January 2026. This is a contract ceiling over multiple years, not Q2 cash spending.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Meta Corning fiber supply agreement",
          "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/01/meta-6-billion-agreement-corning-support-us-manufacturing/",
          "date": "2026-01-27"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "vrt",
        "layer": "cooling",
        "status": "potential",
        "explanation": "NVIDIA-compatible power and cooling designs provide thematic exposure. This is not evidence of a Meta award.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Vertiv NVIDIA GB300 reference architecture",
          "url": "https://www.vertiv.com/en-emea/about/news-and-events/news-releases/vertiv-develops-energy-efficient-cooling-and-power-reference-architecture-for-the-nvidia-gb300-nvl72/",
          "date": "2025-06-11"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "etn",
        "layer": "power",
        "status": "potential",
        "explanation": "Supplies liquid-cooling products for NVIDIA infrastructure. Buyer-specific Meta revenue is not disclosed here.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Eaton AI cooling solutions",
          "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/markets/data-centers/ai-machine-learning/scaling-ai-with-eatons-complete-liquid-cooling-systems.html",
          "date": null
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "amzn",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "AWS and NVIDIA describe Blackwell systems and Project Ceiba. The release does not identify selected-quarter spending.",
        "source": {
          "label": "AWS NVIDIA Blackwell collaboration",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/aws-nvidia-generative-ai-innovation",
          "date": "2024-03-18"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "amzn",
        "supplierId": "glw",
        "layer": "network",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Amazon announced a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar optical fiber and connectivity agreement. No exact total or Q2 recognized payment is published in this source.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Amazon Corning supply agreement",
          "url": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-corning-fiber-optics-1000-jobs-north-carolina",
          "date": "2026-06-08"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "amzn",
        "supplierId": "etn",
        "layer": "power",
        "status": "potential",
        "explanation": "AI electrical and cooling product exposure. The source does not establish an Amazon procurement award.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Eaton AI cooling solutions",
          "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/markets/data-centers/ai-machine-learning/scaling-ai-with-eatons-complete-liquid-cooling-systems.html",
          "date": null
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "amzn",
        "supplierId": "vrt",
        "layer": "cooling",
        "status": "potential",
        "explanation": "High-density power and cooling reference designs. No Amazon-specific purchase is assumed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Vertiv NVIDIA GB300 reference architecture",
          "url": "https://www.vertiv.com/en-emea/about/news-and-events/news-releases/vertiv-develops-energy-efficient-cooling-and-power-reference-architecture-for-the-nvidia-gb300-nvl72/",
          "date": "2025-06-11"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "googl",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Google Cloud is a named Blackwell cloud platform partner. This is not a disclosed share of Alphabet's Q2 capital expenditure.",
        "source": {
          "label": "NVIDIA Blackwell platform partners",
          "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-blackwell-platform-arrives-to-power-a-new-era-of-computing",
          "date": "2024-03-18"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "googl",
        "supplierId": "mu",
        "layer": "memory",
        "status": "indirect",
        "explanation": "NVIDIA-system memory and storage exposure only. No claim is made that Micron supplies Ironwood or a specified Google purchase.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Micron NVIDIA platform relationship",
          "url": "https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-in-High-Volume-Production-of-HBM4-Designed-for-NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-PCIe-Gen6-SSD-and-SOCAMM2-03-16-2026/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-03-16"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "googl",
        "supplierId": "etn",
        "layer": "power",
        "status": "potential",
        "explanation": "Relevant electrical and cooling products. Google-specific orders are not established by this evidence.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Eaton AI cooling solutions",
          "url": "https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/markets/data-centers/ai-machine-learning/scaling-ai-with-eatons-complete-liquid-cooling-systems.html",
          "date": null
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "meta",
        "supplierId": "anet",
        "layer": "network",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Arista describes Meta deployment of its Distributed Etherlink platform. No purchase amount is disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Arista and Meta AI cluster deployment",
          "url": "https://blogs.arista.com/blog/meta-and-arista-build-ai-at-scale",
          "date": null,
          "kind": "primary"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "crwv",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "CoreWeave's results identify NVIDIA platform infrastructure. No dollar allocation of annual CapEx is published.",
        "source": {
          "label": "CoreWeave Q2 2026 results",
          "url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
          "date": "2026-08-11",
          "kind": "primary"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "nbis",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "Nebius's shareholder letter identifies NVIDIA Blackwell systems and GPU purchases. No vendor-level annual spend is disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Nebius Q2 2026 shareholder letter",
          "url": "https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a6ecfd85-a6cb-4967-8ef7-9a25bd261f9c/SHLQ226.pdf",
          "date": "2026-08-12",
          "kind": "primary"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "orcl",
        "supplierId": "nvda",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "disclosed",
        "explanation": "OpenAI describes NVIDIA GB200 racks delivered to Oracle-operated Abilene capacity. The agreement does not assign Oracle's annual capex to NVIDIA.",
        "source": {
          "label": "OpenAI describes Oracle-operated Stargate deployment",
          "url": "https://openai.com/index/stargate-advances-with-partnership-with-oracle/",
          "date": "2025-07-22",
          "kind": "primary"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "baba",
        "supplierId": "thead",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "internal",
        "explanation": "The issuer describes this silicon business. Supplier spending is not separately disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Alibaba June 2026 results filed with SEC",
          "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000110465926099220/tm2623667d1_ex99-1.htm",
          "date": "2026-08-20",
          "kind": "primary"
        },
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "buyerId": "bidu",
        "supplierId": "kunlun",
        "layer": "compute",
        "status": "internal",
        "explanation": "The issuer describes this silicon business. Supplier spending is not separately disclosed.",
        "source": {
          "label": "Baidu FY2025 results",
          "url": "https://ir.baidu.com/news-releases/news-release-details/baidu-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-results",
          "date": "2026-02-26",
          "kind": "primary"
        },
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "legend": [
      {
        "id": "disclosed",
        "label": "Disclosed relationship",
        "meaning": "Named buyer/supplier relationship supported by a linked statement; no spend allocation."
      },
      {
        "id": "internal",
        "label": "Internal platform",
        "meaning": "Buyer-designed platform; manufacturing and component costs may be embedded."
      },
      {
        "id": "indirect",
        "label": "Indirect ecosystem",
        "meaning": "Relationship exists through another platform or supplier."
      },
      {
        "id": "potential",
        "label": "Thematic exposure",
        "meaning": "Relevant products or author thesis; buyer award has not been established."
      },
      {
        "id": "operating",
        "label": "Operating supply",
        "meaning": "Future electricity or service purchase; excluded from PP&E allocation."
      }
    ]
  },
  "validation": {
    "allForecastsFinitePositive": true,
    "bearBelowBaseBelowBull": true,
    "totalsEqualCompanySums": true,
    "managementAndHouseSeparated": true,
    "reportedPeriodsRetained": true,
    "noSupplierDollarAllocations": true
  }
}