{ "asOf": "2026-09-13", "title": "AI Industry Monitor", "version": "5.0", "methodology": [ "Sixteen source-backed indicators cover demand, cash generation, funding conditions and external constraints. Observation dates vary by metric; the header date is the retrieval date, not a claim of real-time updates.", "All displayed histories are reported observations or explicitly defined calculations. Missing dates and quarters are not interpolated. Growth is shown only when comparable observations exist. Percentage rates use percentage-point changes; the stress index uses index-point changes.", "Census AI-use history starts with the revised November 2025 question and is not joined to the earlier, narrower definition. Expected use is a survey response, not contracted demand.", "Cash-flow data align Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet to calendar quarters. Amounts are total-company cash flows, not an AI-only capital budget.", "METR history is the current benchmark vintage arranged by model release date, not an investable point-in-time series. Economic series use their current published revisions.", "Market transmission explanations are research hypotheses. They do not convert co-movement into causation or generate stock-return forecasts." ], "groups": [ "Demand", "Cash flow", "Financing", "External constraints" ], "metrics": [ { "id": "business-ai-use", "group": "Demand", "title": "Business AI adoption", "definition": "Share of U.S. nonfarm employer businesses reporting AI use in any business function during the previous two weeks.", "scope": "United States · all sectors", "frequency": "Biweekly", "unit": "%", "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-30", "value": 17.3 }, { "date": "2025-12-14", "value": 17.2 }, { "date": "2025-12-28", "value": 17.8 }, { "date": "2026-01-11", "value": 17.7 }, { "date": "2026-01-25", "value": 18.2 }, { "date": "2026-02-08", "value": 18.9 }, { "date": "2026-02-22", "value": 17.5 }, { "date": "2026-03-08", "value": 18.2 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "value": 18.9 }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "value": 19.1 }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "value": 19.8 }, { "date": "2026-05-03", "value": 19.8 }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "value": 19.5 }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "value": 20.6 }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "value": 20.6 }, { "date": "2026-06-28", "value": 20.6 }, { "date": "2026-07-12", "value": 21.7 }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "value": 21.5 }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "value": 21.8 }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "value": 22.4 }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 23.2 } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Census Bureau · BTOS", "url": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data", "license": "Public domain; U.S. Census Bureau attribution", "released": "2026-09-10", "dataUrl": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/ai_national.json" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Broader adoption expands the potential paying customer base. Usage alone does not demonstrate paid conversion or retention.", "substitution": "Replaces paid-model penetration with official reported AI usage; the survey does not measure paid licenses.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "demand", "changeMode": "percentage-point", "asOf": "2026-09-06", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Consistent question wording from collection starting November 17, 2025. Earlier definitions are excluded. Point estimates; confidence intervals are not supplied in the chart JSON, so changes are not labeled statistically significant." }, { "id": "expected-ai-use", "group": "Demand", "title": "Expected AI adoption", "definition": "Share of U.S. nonfarm employer businesses expecting to use AI in any business function during the next six months.", "scope": "United States · all sectors", "frequency": "Biweekly", "unit": "%", "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-30", "value": 21.1 }, { "date": "2025-12-14", "value": 20.9 }, { "date": "2025-12-28", "value": 21.3 }, { "date": "2026-01-11", "value": 22.4 }, { "date": "2026-01-25", "value": 22.1 }, { "date": "2026-02-08", "value": 22.1 }, { "date": "2026-02-22", "value": 21 }, { "date": "2026-03-08", "value": 21.8 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "value": 22.3 }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "value": 22.5 }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "value": 23 }, { "date": "2026-05-03", "value": 22.8 }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "value": 22.7 }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "value": 23.7 }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "value": 23.9 }, { "date": "2026-06-28", "value": 23.7 }, { "date": "2026-07-12", "value": 24.5 }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "value": 24.3 }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "value": 25.9 }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "value": 25.9 }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 27.3 } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Census Bureau · BTOS", "url": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data", "license": "Public domain; U.S. Census Bureau attribution", "released": "2026-09-10", "dataUrl": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/ai_national.json" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Compare plans with subsequent actual adoption to test whether implementation converts demand into deployments.", "substitution": "Survey intentions provide a public demand pipeline measure; they are not contracted revenue.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "demand", "changeMode": "percentage-point", "asOf": "2026-09-06", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Same post-November 2025 wording only. Expectations are survey responses, not this site’s forecast." }, { "id": "information-ai-use", "group": "Demand", "title": "Information-sector AI use", "definition": "Share of Information-sector employer businesses reporting AI use in any business function in the previous two weeks.", "scope": "United States · NAICS Information", "frequency": "Biweekly", "unit": "%", "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-30", "value": 41 }, { "date": "2025-12-14", "value": 32.1 }, { "date": "2025-12-28", "value": 36.5 }, { "date": "2026-01-11", "value": 37.7 }, { "date": "2026-01-25", "value": 37.5 }, { "date": "2026-02-08", "value": 41.2 }, { "date": "2026-02-22", "value": 40.8 }, { "date": "2026-03-08", "value": 30.3 }, { "date": "2026-03-22", "value": 35.9 }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "value": 41.5 }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "value": 41.8 }, { "date": "2026-05-03", "value": 39.7 }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "value": 42.9 }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "value": 38.8 }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "value": 41.9 }, { "date": "2026-06-28", "value": 43.5 }, { "date": "2026-07-12", "value": 43.7 }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "value": 41.9 }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "value": 45 }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "value": 46 }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 43.5 } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Census Bureau · BTOS", "url": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data", "license": "Public domain; U.S. Census Bureau attribution", "released": "2026-09-10", "dataUrl": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/AI_sector.json" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "An adoption-intensive sector can indicate whether AI deployment is deepening beyond pilot projects. Firm counts do not reveal spending intensity.", "substitution": "Provides a sector adoption lens instead of assigning OpenRouter traffic to countries.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "demand", "changeMode": "percentage-point", "asOf": "2026-09-06", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Information is a Census industry classification, not a synonym for every technology company. Same post-November 2025 wording only." }, { "id": "metr-reliable-horizon", "group": "Demand", "title": "Agent capability · 80% horizon", "definition": "Longest published METR TH 1.1 task horizon at an estimated 80% success probability, expressed in human-expert task hours.", "scope": "Evaluated frontier software agents", "frequency": "Release events", "unit": "hours", "series": [ { "date": "2019-02-14", "value": 0.00021333333333333333, "ciLow": 2.648333333333333e-05, "ciHigh": 0.0011435333333333333, "model": "gpt2" }, { "date": "2020-05-28", "value": 0.0009373000000000001, "ciLow": 0.0005802166666666666, "ciHigh": 0.00176355, "model": "davinci 002" }, { "date": "2022-03-15", "value": 0.004256333333333333, "ciLow": 0.0023608166666666667, "ciHigh": 0.00821555, "model": "gpt 3 5 turbo instruct" }, { "date": "2023-03-14", "value": 0.014826016666666667, "ciLow": 0.0057164, "ciHigh": 0.042062433333333336, "model": "gpt 4" }, { "date": "2024-04-09", "value": 0.01546555, "ciLow": 0.0071379500000000005, "ciHigh": 0.036613433333333334, "model": "gpt 4 turbo" }, { "date": "2024-05-13", "value": 0.021116816666666666, "ciLow": 0.009383283333333332, "ciHigh": 0.05025283333333333, "model": "gpt 4o" }, { "date": "2024-06-20", "value": 0.027862616666666666, "ciLow": 0.0096545, "ciHigh": 0.07622531666666667, "model": "claude 3 5 sonnet 20240620" }, { "date": "2024-09-12", "value": 0.07367575, "ciLow": 0.0335441, "ciHigh": 0.14854073333333334, "model": "o1 preview" }, { "date": "2024-12-05", "value": 0.11816868333333333, "ciLow": 0.05060055, "ciHigh": 0.27734393333333335, "model": "o1" }, { "date": "2025-02-24", "value": 0.20152983333333332, "ciLow": 0.07626013333333333, "ciHigh": 0.4814979833333333, "model": "claude 3 7 sonnet" }, { "date": "2025-04-16", "value": 0.49969338333333335, "ciLow": 0.25212246666666666, "ciHigh": 0.9637251833333333, "model": "o3" }, { "date": "2025-08-07", "value": 0.6385405166666666, "ciLow": 0.31974790000000003, "ciHigh": 1.16821875, "model": "gpt 5 2025 08 07" }, { "date": "2025-11-18", "value": 0.9023808166666666, "ciLow": 0.4275075166666667, "ciHigh": 1.7215916833333333, "model": "gemini 3 pro" }, { "date": "2025-12-11", "value": 1.10004415, "ciLow": 0.52775185, "ciHigh": 2.195511983333333, "model": "gpt 5 2" }, { "date": "2026-02-05", "value": 1.16457645, "ciLow": 0.45044201666666667, "ciHigh": 2.8406312166666665, "model": "claude opus 4 6" }, { "date": "2026-02-19", "value": 1.4966917166666667, "ciLow": 0.8670989, "ciHigh": 2.643633616666667, "model": "gemini 3 1 pro" }, { "date": "2026-04-07", "value": 3.0985304833333336, "ciLow": 1.6217153333333334, "ciHigh": 6.641910233333333, "model": "claude mythos preview early" } ], "source": { "label": "METR · Time Horizon 1.1", "url": "https://metr.org/time-horizons/", "dataUrl": "https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml", "released": "2026-05-08", "license": "Selected numerical findings summarized with METR attribution; no task or run dataset redistributed", "paper": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499" }, "status": "derived", "interpretation": "Longer reliable task horizons may support agent workflows, but deployment still requires acceptable cost, security and review overhead.", "substitution": "Replaces a proprietary intelligence score with an independently published task-duration benchmark.", "decimals": 2, "higherIs": "demand", "changeMode": "none", "asOf": "2026-04-07", "captured": "2026-09-13", "comparableChanges": false, "methodology": "Running maximum of published p80 estimates by model release date, using the current TH 1.1 vintage. Release date is not measurement publication date; this is not a point-in-time backtest. Software/ML/cybersecurity task scope, not all jobs. Confidence bounds are retained per observation. Public page last updated May 8, 2026; latest tested preview is not a comprehensive September model ranking." }, { "id": "four-company-capex", "group": "Cash flow", "title": "Four-company cash CapEx", "definition": "Gross cash purchases of property and equipment by Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet.", "scope": "MSFT · META · AMZN · GOOGL", "frequency": "Quarterly", "unit": "USD bn", "series": [ { "date": "2025-06-30", "value": 88.246, "period": "Q2 2025" }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "value": 129.75, "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "value": 165.05, "period": "Q2 2026" } ], "source": { "label": "Four issuer cash-flow statements", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "sources": [ { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q4", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Meta · Q2 2026", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Amazon · Q2 2026", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/", "released": "2026-07-30" }, { "label": "Alphabet · Q2 2026 SEC exhibit", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm", "released": "2026-07-22" } ], "released": "2026-07-30", "license": "Numerical facts derived from issuer disclosures", "additionalSource": { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q3", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-04-29" } }, "status": "derived", "interpretation": "Supplier revenue opportunity grows with equipment and construction spending. Total-company cash CapEx also funds non-AI activity.", "substitution": "Uses reported cash flows rather than unavailable Big 5 consensus forecasts.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-06-30", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Sum of MSFT, META, AMZN and GOOGL, aligned calendar quarters. Gross cash PPE purchases; finance leases, asset-sale proceeds and Amazon incentives are excluded. Q1 Meta/Amazon are derived as six-month totals less Q2; Q1 Alphabet is disclosed in its FCF reconciliation. Sparse verified quarters are plotted at their true dates; missing quarters are not filled.", "quarterlyComparisonsOnly": true }, { "id": "four-company-ocf", "group": "Cash flow", "title": "Four-company operating cash flow", "definition": "Sum of reported operating cash flow for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet.", "scope": "MSFT · META · AMZN · GOOGL", "frequency": "Quarterly", "unit": "USD bn", "series": [ { "date": "2025-06-30", "value": 128.47, "period": "Q2 2025" }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "value": 150.727, "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "value": 171.759, "period": "Q2 2026" } ], "source": { "label": "Four issuer cash-flow statements", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "sources": [ { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q4", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Meta · Q2 2026", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Amazon · Q2 2026", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/", "released": "2026-07-30" }, { "label": "Alphabet · Q2 2026 SEC exhibit", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm", "released": "2026-07-22" } ], "released": "2026-07-30", "license": "Numerical facts derived from issuer disclosures", "additionalSource": { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q3", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-04-29" } }, "status": "derived", "interpretation": "Internally generated cash is the first funding source for infrastructure; working capital and taxes can move quarterly results.", "substitution": "Uses reported cash flows rather than unavailable Big 5 consensus forecasts.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-06-30", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Sum of MSFT, META, AMZN and GOOGL, aligned calendar quarters. Gross cash PPE purchases; finance leases, asset-sale proceeds and Amazon incentives are excluded. Q1 Meta/Amazon are derived as six-month totals less Q2; Q1 Alphabet is disclosed in its FCF reconciliation. Sparse verified quarters are plotted at their true dates; missing quarters are not filled.", "quarterlyComparisonsOnly": true }, { "id": "four-company-fcf", "group": "Cash flow", "title": "Cash remaining after PPE", "definition": "Operating cash flow less gross cash purchases of property and equipment, for the same four companies.", "scope": "MSFT · META · AMZN · GOOGL", "frequency": "Quarterly", "unit": "USD bn", "series": [ { "date": "2025-06-30", "value": 40.224, "period": "Q2 2025" }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "value": 20.977, "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "value": 6.709, "period": "Q2 2026" } ], "source": { "label": "Four issuer cash-flow statements", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "sources": [ { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q4", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Meta · Q2 2026", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Amazon · Q2 2026", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/", "released": "2026-07-30" }, { "label": "Alphabet · Q2 2026 SEC exhibit", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm", "released": "2026-07-22" } ], "released": "2026-07-30", "license": "Numerical facts derived from issuer disclosures", "additionalSource": { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q3", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-04-29" } }, "status": "derived", "interpretation": "A shrinking residual leaves less cash for repurchases, acquisitions or debt reduction. This excludes separate lease-principal cash payments.", "substitution": "Uses reported cash flows rather than unavailable Big 5 consensus forecasts.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-06-30", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Sum of MSFT, META, AMZN and GOOGL, aligned calendar quarters. Gross cash PPE purchases; finance leases, asset-sale proceeds and Amazon incentives are excluded. Q1 Meta/Amazon are derived as six-month totals less Q2; Q1 Alphabet is disclosed in its FCF reconciliation. Sparse verified quarters are plotted at their true dates; missing quarters are not filled.", "quarterlyComparisonsOnly": true }, { "id": "four-company-capex-ocf", "group": "Cash flow", "title": "CapEx / operating cash flow", "definition": "Gross cash PPE purchases divided by operating cash flow for the same four companies.", "scope": "MSFT · META · AMZN · GOOGL", "frequency": "Quarterly", "unit": "%", "series": [ { "date": "2025-06-30", "value": 68.689967, "period": "Q2 2025" }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "value": 86.082785, "period": "Q1 2026" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "value": 96.093946, "period": "Q2 2026" } ], "source": { "label": "Four issuer cash-flow statements", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "sources": [ { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q4", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Meta · Q2 2026", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "released": "2026-07-29" }, { "label": "Amazon · Q2 2026", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/", "released": "2026-07-30" }, { "label": "Alphabet · Q2 2026 SEC exhibit", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm", "released": "2026-07-22" } ], "released": "2026-07-30", "license": "Numerical facts derived from issuer disclosures", "additionalSource": { "label": "Microsoft · FY2026 Q3", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast", "released": "2026-04-29" } }, "status": "derived", "interpretation": "Near or above 100% means cash PPE absorbs most or all operating cash. This ratio is not an insolvency test.", "substitution": "Uses reported cash flows rather than unavailable Big 5 consensus forecasts.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "risk", "changeMode": "percentage-point", "asOf": "2026-06-30", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Sum of MSFT, META, AMZN and GOOGL, aligned calendar quarters. Gross cash PPE purchases; finance leases, asset-sale proceeds and Amazon incentives are excluded. Q1 Meta/Amazon are derived as six-month totals less Q2; Q1 Alphabet is disclosed in its FCF reconciliation. Sparse verified quarters are plotted at their true dates; missing quarters are not filled.", "quarterlyComparisonsOnly": true }, { "id": "sofr", "group": "Financing", "title": "Secured overnight funding rate", "definition": "New York Fed secured overnight financing rate, a broad Treasury-repo funding benchmark.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Daily", "unit": "%", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-02", "value": 4.4 }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2025-01-06", "value": 4.27 }, { "date": "2025-01-07", "value": 4.27 }, { "date": "2025-01-08", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-01-09", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-01-13", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-01-14", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-01-15", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-01-16", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-01-21", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-01-22", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-01-23", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-01-27", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-01-28", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-01-29", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-01-30", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 4.38 }, { "date": "2025-02-03", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-02-04", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-05", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-06", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-02-10", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-02-11", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-02-12", "value": 4.32 }, { "date": "2025-02-13", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-18", "value": 4.37 }, { "date": "2025-02-19", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-02-20", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-02-24", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-02-25", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-26", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-02-27", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 4.39 }, { "date": "2025-03-03", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-03-04", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-03-05", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-03-06", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-03-10", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-03-11", "value": 4.32 }, { "date": "2025-03-12", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2025-03-13", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-03-17", "value": 4.32 }, { "date": "2025-03-18", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2025-03-19", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-03-20", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-03-24", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2025-03-25", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-03-26", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-03-27", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-03-31", "value": 4.41 }, { "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 4.39 }, { "date": "2025-04-02", "value": 4.37 }, { "date": "2025-04-03", 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"date": "2025-05-09", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-05-12", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-05-13", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-05-14", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-05-15", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-05-19", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-05-20", "value": 4.27 }, { "date": "2025-05-21", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2025-05-22", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2025-05-27", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2025-05-28", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-05-29", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-06-02", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-06-03", "value": 4.32 }, { "date": "2025-06-04", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-06-05", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-06-09", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-06-10", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-06-11", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2025-06-12", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": 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"2026-08-17", "value": 3.66 }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "value": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "value": 3.62 }, { "date": "2026-08-20", "value": 3.63 }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "value": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "value": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "value": 3.66 }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "value": 3.64 }, { "date": "2026-08-27", "value": 3.64 }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "value": 3.68 }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 3.66 }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "value": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "value": 3.66 }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 3.64 }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 3.64 }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 3.62 } ], "source": { "label": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SOFR&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Copyrighted: Citation Required · Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-11" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "A higher floating-rate base can raise the funding cost of leveraged AI infrastructure and refinancing. Borrower spreads are additional.", "substitution": "Public funding-cost proxy; does not measure a hyperscaler CDS spread.", "decimals": 2, "higherIs": "risk", "changeMode": "percentage-point", "asOf": "2026-09-10", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." }, { "id": "dgs10", "group": "Financing", "title": "10-year Treasury yield", "definition": "Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Daily", "unit": "%", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-02", "value": 4.57 }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "value": 4.6 }, { "date": "2025-01-06", "value": 4.62 }, { "date": "2025-01-07", "value": 4.67 }, { "date": "2025-01-08", "value": 4.67 }, { "date": "2025-01-09", "value": 4.68 }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "value": 4.77 }, { "date": "2025-01-13", "value": 4.79 }, { "date": "2025-01-14", "value": 4.78 }, { "date": "2025-01-15", "value": 4.66 }, { "date": "2025-01-16", "value": 4.61 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": 4.61 }, { "date": "2025-01-21", "value": 4.57 }, { "date": "2025-01-22", "value": 4.6 }, { "date": "2025-01-23", "value": 4.65 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 4.63 }, { "date": "2025-01-27", "value": 4.53 }, { "date": "2025-01-28", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2025-01-29", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2025-01-30", "value": 4.52 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 4.58 }, { "date": "2025-02-03", "value": 4.54 }, { "date": "2025-02-04", "value": 4.52 }, { "date": "2025-02-05", "value": 4.43 }, { "date": "2025-02-06", "value": 4.45 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 4.49 }, { "date": "2025-02-10", "value": 4.51 }, { "date": "2025-02-11", "value": 4.54 }, { "date": "2025-02-12", "value": 4.62 }, { "date": "2025-02-13", "value": 4.52 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 4.47 }, { "date": "2025-02-18", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2025-02-19", "value": 4.53 }, { "date": "2025-02-20", "value": 4.5 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 4.42 }, { "date": "2025-02-24", "value": 4.4 }, { "date": "2025-02-25", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-02-26", "value": 4.25 }, { "date": "2025-02-27", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 4.24 }, { "date": "2025-03-03", "value": 4.16 }, { 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"2025-04-07", "value": 4.15 }, { "date": "2025-04-08", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2025-04-09", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-04-10", "value": 4.4 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": 4.48 }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "value": 4.38 }, { "date": "2025-04-15", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2025-04-16", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-04-17", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2025-04-21", "value": 4.42 }, { "date": "2025-04-22", "value": 4.41 }, { "date": "2025-04-23", "value": 4.4 }, { "date": "2025-04-24", "value": 4.32 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2025-04-28", "value": 4.23 }, { "date": "2025-04-29", "value": 4.19 }, { "date": "2025-04-30", "value": 4.17 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "value": 4.25 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2025-05-05", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2025-05-06", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2025-05-07", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2025-05-08", "value": 4.37 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": 4.37 }, { "date": "2025-05-12", 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"2026-02-24", "value": 4.04 }, { "date": "2026-02-25", "value": 4.05 }, { "date": "2026-02-26", "value": 4.02 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 3.97 }, { "date": "2026-03-02", "value": 4.05 }, { "date": "2026-03-03", "value": 4.06 }, { "date": "2026-03-04", "value": 4.09 }, { "date": "2026-03-05", "value": 4.13 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 4.15 }, { "date": "2026-03-09", "value": 4.12 }, { "date": "2026-03-10", "value": 4.15 }, { "date": "2026-03-11", "value": 4.21 }, { "date": "2026-03-12", "value": 4.27 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 4.28 }, { "date": "2026-03-16", "value": 4.23 }, { "date": "2026-03-17", "value": 4.2 }, { "date": "2026-03-18", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2026-03-19", "value": 4.25 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 4.39 }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2026-03-24", "value": 4.39 }, { "date": "2026-03-25", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2026-03-26", "value": 4.42 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 4.44 }, { "date": "2026-03-30", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2026-04-07", "value": 4.33 }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2026-04-15", "value": 4.29 }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "value": 4.32 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2026-04-20", "value": 4.26 }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2026-04-22", "value": 4.3 }, { "date": "2026-04-23", "value": 4.34 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 4.31 }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "value": 4.35 }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "value": 4.42 }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "value": 4.4 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 4.39 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "value": 4.45 }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "value": 4.43 }, { "date": "2026-05-06", "value": 4.36 }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "value": 4.41 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 4.38 }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "value": 4.42 }, { "date": "2026-05-12", "value": 4.46 }, { "date": "2026-05-13", "value": 4.46 }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "value": 4.47 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 4.59 }, { "date": "2026-05-18", "value": 4.61 }, { "date": "2026-05-19", "value": 4.67 }, { "date": "2026-05-20", "value": 4.57 }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "value": 4.57 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 4.56 }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "value": 4.5 }, { "date": "2026-05-27", "value": 4.48 }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "value": 4.45 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 4.45 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 4.47 }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "value": 4.46 }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "value": 4.49 }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "value": 4.47 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2026-06-08", "value": 4.56 }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "value": 4.53 }, { "date": "2026-06-10", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "value": 4.45 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 4.48 }, { "date": "2026-06-15", "value": 4.47 }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "value": 4.43 }, { "date": "2026-06-17", "value": 4.49 }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "value": 4.46 }, { "date": "2026-06-22", "value": 4.51 }, { "date": "2026-06-23", "value": 4.5 }, { "date": "2026-06-24", "value": 4.41 }, { "date": "2026-06-25", "value": 4.4 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 4.38 }, { "date": "2026-06-29", "value": 4.38 }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "value": 4.44 }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 4.48 }, { "date": "2026-07-02", "value": 4.49 }, { "date": "2026-07-06", "value": 4.48 }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2026-07-08", "value": 4.56 }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "value": 4.54 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 4.56 }, { "date": "2026-07-13", "value": 4.62 }, { "date": "2026-07-14", "value": 4.58 }, { "date": "2026-07-15", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2026-07-16", "value": 4.57 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 4.55 }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "value": 4.6 }, { "date": "2026-07-21", "value": 4.63 }, { "date": "2026-07-22", "value": 4.67 }, { "date": "2026-07-23", "value": 4.71 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 4.69 }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "value": 4.65 }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "value": 4.61 }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "value": 4.67 }, { "date": "2026-07-30", "value": 4.68 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 4.75 }, { "date": "2026-08-03", "value": 4.7 }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "value": 4.63 }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "value": 4.63 }, { "date": "2026-08-06", "value": 4.69 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 4.65 }, { "date": "2026-08-10", "value": 4.72 }, { "date": "2026-08-11", "value": 4.7 }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "value": 4.68 }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "value": 4.63 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 4.68 }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "value": 4.72 }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "value": 4.71 }, { "date": "2026-08-19", "value": 4.65 }, { "date": "2026-08-20", "value": 4.69 }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "value": 4.74 }, { "date": "2026-08-24", "value": 4.7 }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "value": 4.64 }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "value": 4.66 }, { "date": "2026-08-27", "value": 4.67 }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": 4.73 }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "value": 4.75 }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 4.79 }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "value": 4.79 }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "value": 4.77 }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 4.78 }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 4.8 }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 4.83 }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 4.95 } ], "source": { "label": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Public domain; citation requested", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-11" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Higher long-term risk-free yields can increase project hurdle rates and lower distant cash-flow valuations, all else equal.", "substitution": "A transparent base discount rate; company credit and equity risk premia remain separate.", "decimals": 2, "higherIs": "risk", "changeMode": "percentage-point", "asOf": "2026-09-10", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." }, { "id": "stlfsi4", "group": "Financing", "title": "Broad financial stress", "definition": "St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, version 4. Zero denotes its long-run reference level.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Weekly", "unit": "index", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-03", "value": -0.6125 }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "value": -0.7967 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "value": -0.8183 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": -0.9647 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": -0.7517 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": -0.7746 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": -0.8241 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": -0.7522 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": -0.4388 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": -0.3445 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": -0.2065 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": -0.6357 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": -0.6177 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": 0.1149 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": 0.5864 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": -0.1898 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": -0.2573 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": -0.3286 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": -0.4639 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": -0.8936 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": -0.4939 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": -0.5257 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": -0.7987 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": -0.7752 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": -0.644 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": -0.6924 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": -0.8715 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": -0.7493 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": -0.7129 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": -0.7922 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": -0.674 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": -0.561 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": -0.816 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": -0.7494 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": -0.6018 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": -0.4165 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": -0.5557 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": -0.5893 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": -0.5352 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": -0.4906 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": -0.4813 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": -0.3594 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": -0.5042 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": -0.4587 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -0.3103 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -0.5026 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.1262 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.3856 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.4215 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -0.3541 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -0.3314 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -0.5727 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -0.5566 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -0.6559 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.6426 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.7062 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.6691 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.6493 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.6073 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -0.4786 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.4337 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.4251 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.2964 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.3625 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.1771 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.2295 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.638 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.7485 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.6716 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.6669 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.7565 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.7367 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.7573 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.6782 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.864 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.7664 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.9508 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.6423 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.7223 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.8819 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.6994 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.8252 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.5045 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.769 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.8275 }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "value": -0.81 }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": -0.8518 }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": -0.7884 } ], "source": { "label": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=STLFSI4&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Copyrighted: Citation Required · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-09" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "An increase indicates greater broad market stress. The index helps contextualize refinancing risk rather than identify an AI-specific credit event.", "substitution": "Substitutes a public market-stress measure for proprietary Big 5 CDS or investment-grade technology spreads.", "decimals": 3, "higherIs": "risk", "changeMode": "absolute", "asOf": "2026-09-04", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." }, { "id": "lnfacbm027sbog", "group": "Financing", "title": "Bank loans to nonbank financials", "definition": "Seasonally adjusted stock of commercial-bank loans to nondepository financial institutions.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Monthly", "unit": "USD bn", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-01", "value": 1412.1235 }, { "date": "2025-02-01", "value": 1430.173 }, { "date": "2025-03-01", "value": 1469.3232 }, { "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 1555.7776 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "value": 1569.9519 }, { "date": "2025-06-01", "value": 1600.0278 }, { "date": "2025-07-01", "value": 1674.7296 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 1699.9036 }, { "date": "2025-09-01", "value": 1723.1433 }, { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 1760.4758 }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "value": 1794.6276 }, { "date": "2025-12-01", "value": 1826.6018 }, { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 1880.0186 }, { "date": "2026-02-01", "value": 1912.9619 }, { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 1940.5595 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 1969.1924 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1981.9838 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 1991.27 }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2004.9736 }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2026.3273 } ], "source": { "label": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNFACBM027SBOG", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=LNFACBM027SBOG&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Public domain; citation requested", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-11" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Growth may expand financing capacity outside deposit-taking banks. It cannot establish how much funding reaches AI projects.", "substitution": "Measures a broad nonbank loan stock, not private-credit AUM, AI venture funding or nonbank loans as a share of all bank loans.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-08-01", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." }, { "id": "usinfo", "group": "External constraints", "title": "Information-sector employment", "definition": "Seasonally adjusted payroll employment in the BLS Information sector.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Monthly", "unit": "million jobs", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-01", "value": 2.877 }, { "date": "2025-02-01", "value": 2.876 }, { "date": "2025-03-01", "value": 2.867 }, { "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 2.865 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "value": 2.864 }, { "date": "2025-06-01", "value": 2.863 }, { "date": "2025-07-01", "value": 2.861 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 2.86 }, { "date": "2025-09-01", "value": 2.859 }, { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 2.853 }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "value": 2.848 }, { "date": "2025-12-01", "value": 2.842 }, { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 2.815 }, { "date": "2026-02-01", "value": 2.792 }, { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 2.793 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 2.787 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.782 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 2.763 }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 2.768 }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 2.745 } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USINFO", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=USINFO&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Public domain; citation requested", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-04" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Employment contraction alongside AI adoption is a research signal. Macro conditions and industry restructuring prevent an automatic causal attribution to AI.", "substitution": "Official Information-sector payrolls replace an undefined technology-employment total; tech jobs also exist in other sectors.", "decimals": 3, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-08-01", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." }, { "id": "usfire", "group": "External constraints", "title": "Financial-activities employment", "definition": "Seasonally adjusted payroll employment in BLS Financial Activities, including finance, insurance, real estate and rental/leasing.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Monthly", "unit": "million jobs", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-01", "value": 9.187 }, { "date": "2025-02-01", "value": 9.199 }, { "date": "2025-03-01", "value": 9.201 }, { "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 9.205 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "value": 9.211 }, { "date": "2025-06-01", "value": 9.204 }, { "date": "2025-07-01", "value": 9.204 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 9.185 }, { "date": "2025-09-01", "value": 9.189 }, { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 9.184 }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "value": 9.185 }, { "date": "2025-12-01", "value": 9.186 }, { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 9.147 }, { "date": "2026-02-01", "value": 9.149 }, { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 9.132 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 9.126 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 9.106 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 9.108 }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 9.097 }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "value": 9.086 } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USFIRE", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=USFIRE&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Public domain; citation requested", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-04" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Track labor exposure in finance while checking broader demand, interest rates and restructuring. Payrolls are not layoff announcements.", "substitution": "Official sector employment replaces a proprietary technology/finance layoff-share series.", "decimals": 3, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-08-01", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." }, { "id": "data-center-construction", "group": "External constraints", "title": "Data-center construction", "definition": "Private U.S. data-center construction put in place, seasonally adjusted annual rate.", "scope": "United States · private construction", "frequency": "Monthly", "unit": "USD bn SAAR", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-01", "value": 45.341, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-02-01", "value": 46.409, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-03-01", "value": 46.593, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 52.818, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "value": 48.21, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-06-01", "value": 46.85, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-07-01", "value": 47.81, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 49.052, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-09-01", "value": 50.7, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 54.26, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "value": 53.043, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2025-12-01", "value": 55.461, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 56.211, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2026-02-01", "value": 57.361, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 58.121, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 61.859, "revision": "published" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 65.688, "revision": "revised" }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 70.755, "revision": "revised" }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 75.166, "revision": "preliminary" } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Census Bureau · Construction Spending", "url": "https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html", "dataUrl": "https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/privsatime.xlsx", "released": "2026-09-01", "license": "Public domain; U.S. Census Bureau attribution" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Construction spending tests whether announced infrastructure is moving into physical deployment. It does not establish energized capacity or utilization.", "substitution": "Direct public match for data-center construction; the measure excludes servers, IT hardware and land acquisition.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-07-01", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Private SA worksheet, Data center column; source millions converted to billions. SAAR is an annualized spending pace, not the dollar amount spent in that month. Preliminary/revised flags retained. Nominal dollars, no inflation adjustment." }, { "id": "tlpwrcons", "group": "External constraints", "title": "Power construction", "definition": "Total private and public power construction put in place, seasonally adjusted annual rate.", "scope": "United States", "frequency": "Monthly", "unit": "USD bn SAAR", "series": [ { "date": "2025-01-01", "value": 170.838 }, { "date": "2025-02-01", "value": 170.022 }, { "date": "2025-03-01", "value": 171.411 }, { "date": "2025-04-01", "value": 171.115 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "value": 172.584 }, { "date": "2025-06-01", "value": 171.601 }, { "date": "2025-07-01", "value": 172.391 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 171.38 }, { "date": "2025-09-01", "value": 172.475 }, { "date": "2025-10-01", "value": 172.706 }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "value": 173.785 }, { "date": "2025-12-01", "value": 176.211 }, { "date": "2026-01-01", "value": 174.16 }, { "date": "2026-02-01", "value": 175.305 }, { "date": "2026-03-01", "value": 175.392 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 175.695 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 178.422 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "value": 180.662 }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "value": 181.532 } ], "source": { "label": "U.S. Census Bureau via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLPWRCONS", "dataUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=TLPWRCONS&cosd=2025-01-01&coed=2026-09-13", "license": "Public domain; citation requested", "retrieved": "2026-09-13", "released": "2026-09-01" }, "status": "reported", "interpretation": "Investment in enabling infrastructure can ease constraints over time. Announced or installed construction is not proof of available grid interconnection.", "substitution": "Broader enabling-infrastructure context: Census Power includes electric infrastructure and other power categories, not only AI-serving grid assets.", "decimals": 1, "higherIs": "neutral", "changeMode": "relative", "asOf": "2026-07-01", "captured": "2026-09-13", "methodology": "Original observed frequency; non-observation days are omitted, not filled. Current downloaded vintage may include revisions. Monthly dates identify the observation month, not publication day. Source: U.S. Census Bureau via FRED, retrieved September 13, 2026." } ], "coverageNotes": [ { "requested": "Artificial Analysis model scores", "replacement": "METR 80%-success task horizon", "reason": "Publicly documented independent benchmark with a defined software-task scope." }, { "requested": "OpenRouter daily token usage", "replacement": "Census reported and expected AI adoption", "reason": "OpenRouter rankings data permit CC BY 4.0 reuse, but the documented historical Data API requires a valid API key; no token history was invented. Adoption is a different measurement and is labeled accordingly.", "source": "https://openrouter.ai/docs/cookbook/administration/data-api" }, { "requested": "Private-lab ARR, app revenue per user, B200 rental index", "replacement": "Issuer-reported operating cash flow and cash PPE purchases", "reason": "A consistent public recurring dataset was not established for these proprietary/private-company estimates." }, { "requested": "Big 5 consensus FCF, CDS and external funding", "replacement": "Four-issuer reported cash ratios, SOFR, Treasury yield, broad stress and nonbank loan stock", "reason": "Public proxies preserve investment questions while making their narrower or broader scope explicit." } ], "sourceFiles": [ { "name": "ai_national.json", "sha256": "57d3e6d7b4e413c826dd36171123ae8fdefde9bbcbb59ab0666c22fcaaf92f92" }, { "name": "AI_sector.json", "sha256": "1e6cd156c4d3e91ee41cfb8b6f49afc231801e4cb6ba6580875e8fbed153bdfd" }, { "name": "DGS10.csv", "sha256": "7014c0ed1cc3421b2b647cf84478f6f937c3e5f056b5ca14d53a8aa6b67584e7" }, { "name": "LNFACBM027SBOG.csv", "sha256": "8bb29ddc51a94881251603a2a252ee936fea80be0851a7d3387c9ad1f932f8e5" }, { "name": "metr.yaml", "sha256": "aae31902b0519a4da73e16643915e5e8aca13cd3315c3aac893ce3d6dfe92ad9" }, { "name": "privsatime.xlsx", "sha256": "d71e721c2e4652eb643b9717b5cdd2ddb5c7ed6957033278e9af916be01bd0cd" }, { "name": "SOFR.csv", "sha256": "ecdbb29fe01f68f71d0e99b9fd63fb5b3a740d2f658fd568749ac8ec712f911d" }, { "name": "STLFSI4.csv", "sha256": "0ab05e1d911e882294299e404ee410f1d3f7faa6e3342e9c7102a3b7ec1b96cb" }, { "name": "TLPWRCONS.csv", "sha256": "4a3610f9e40bed57ec8ffe201596ec7d984d3b25eb51726cf846f9b001e98ff3" }, { "name": "USFIRE.csv", "sha256": "f4a1d66c331b271d1ad633af454746e0b1fce07f35275dcf2df8f727f938e947" }, { "name": "USINFO.csv", "sha256": "2176edceb2f5a93f3e3584b0a863124027ceca0d4cc43fcf1aec04a87ebde58e" } ] }