https://mingyang.fund/newsletter Independent equity research combining fundamental investing, data and machine learning. Dated theses, valuation ranges, catalysts, kill criteria, forecasts and post-mortems from a personal portfolio with no outside capital. en https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-8 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-8 Tue, 08 Sep 2026 13:00:00 GMT Thematic Cross-asset thematic on the strongest El Niño since 1950. Strength is consensus; phase is the edge: sugar trades before the ONI peak, palm oil after, and grains show no premium in either window. Raw sugar has collected the event-discovery premium; what remains is the India-data premium, valued at 21.0c for Mar-27 against a 19.05c forward. Contract by contract, CANE earns a probability-weighted +8.8% and Adecoagro +10% with the dividend. A catalyst-to-action matrix, an eight-indicator monitoring panel and eight dated forecasts set the exit before end-January 2027. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-7 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-7 Fri, 24 Apr 2026 13:00:00 GMT Deep-Dive Buy-side note on the AI-power industrial complex. The mispricings are absolute, not relative: GEV's 110 GW backlog against 24 GW a year of capacity locks in roughly 4.6 years of production, against the 13% revenue CAGR consensus assumes. Ranked longs GEV, HUBB, ETN, EME, AGX and ACM; avoid VRT, FIX and MTZ at 44–51x; cleanest pair long EME / short FIX. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-6 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-6 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 13:00:00 GMT Macro Two-part study of the Iran-war drawdown: a 9.1% S&P correction (Jan 27 to Mar 30) that recovered to a new high in 18 days, the fastest since 1987. Part I sets base rates for non-recessionary corrections; Part II shows the payoff ratio at 7,126 has fallen from 1.43x to 0.60x, so the edge has moved from direction to dispersion. Trades: long software / short energy, scale-ins at 6,800–6,900, a cheap VIX hedge. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-5 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-5 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:00:00 GMT Deep-Dive The AI trade has split: record multiples for the chips, broken-strategy pricing for the hyperscalers. Walks the cash-flow math (MSFT, META and GOOGL capex from $53B in 2020 to $226B in 2025 with revenue accelerating at every name) and argues the FCF squeeze is capex timing, not deterioration. Positioning: add MSFT and META on weakness, hold GOOGL, half-size APP, do not chase SOXX, NVDA or AVGO. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-4 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-4 Sun, 05 Apr 2026 13:00:00 GMT Weekly Letter NFP's +178K headline masks a ~100K underlying pace once strike resolution, weather and birth-death bias are stripped out, and the dollar's rate advantage has eroded to Feb 2022 levels. LATAM Airlines is the featured asymmetric setup: down 30% on sector contagion with zero Hormuz exposure, domestic fuel sourcing and 28.6% EBITDA margins. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-3 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-3 Sat, 28 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT Weekly Letter Fifth straight weekly S&P decline and a break of the 200-day; the book is +2.1% YTD against −5.8% for the index on the energy overweight. Full PBR entry thesis in five parts, plus the gold paradox signal, an FCX supply update, the MSFT re-underwrite and a ceasefire tail-risk framework. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-2 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-2 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT Macro The 2026 Iran war as the largest oil and gas supply disruption on record: the Hormuz blockade, the Ras Laffan LNG complex and 10M+ bpd removed from the market. Repositioning toward energy and defense and away from long-duration bonds, small caps and international DM, with ceasefire, protracted-war and escalation scenarios. https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-1 https://mingyang.fund/notes/issue-1 Fri, 13 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT Investment Memo Post-mortem on the Hormuz shock: SCO exposed as the wrong instrument and no true short book in place. Covers the exit from SCO, the case for defined-risk USO puts, FCX's rejection at the highs, the LTM update and a plan for building a real long/short book, plus a macro note on U.S. stagflation risk and why the book stays long B2C software.