Active Since Jan 2025

MINGYANG
FUND

Long-only value investing across US and China equities. Top-down macro framework, concentrated high-conviction ideas, focused on value/growth discrepancy.

YTD Return
+40.0%
1Y Return
1.45
Sharpe Ratio
-11.2%
Max Drawdown
01

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

Cumulative Return vs. Benchmark
YTD Return
vs S&P500 —
1Y Return
+40.0%
vs S&P500 +18.2%
Sharpe Ratio
1.45
Risk-adjusted · 1Y
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Peak to trough
Win Rate
100%
4 closed · 4 winners
Portfolio Return
Weighted avg · live
02

INVESTMENT PITCHES

THEME I — LONG BASIC MATERIALS  ·  Copper demand supercycle + gold safe haven
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
LONG

The structural copper deficit is the most underappreciated commodity story of this decade. AI data centers, EV drivetrains, and grid electrification are all copper-intensive at scale — and global mine supply is stagnant. FCX is the largest publicly-traded pure-play copper producer with irreplaceable tier-1 assets (Grasberg). At current copper prices the stock is cheap; at consensus 2026 copper forecasts it is extremely cheap. The re-rating hasn't happened yet.

COPPER DEFICIT AI / EV DEMAND GRASBERG RAMP GRID CAPEX
GOLD
Barrick Mining Corp.
LONG

Gold is in a secular bull market driven by de-dollarisation, central bank accumulation, and real rate uncertainty. Barrick is the highest-quality senior gold producer — diversified jurisdiction, balance sheet net cash, and free cash flow generative above $1,800/oz. At $2,400+ gold the stock trades at a significant discount to NAV. Management's operational improvements are not yet priced in. A hard macro landing accelerates the thesis.

GOLD BULL MARKET DE-DOLLARISATION CENTRAL BANK BID NAV DISCOUNT
THEME II — LONG US ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE  ·  AI power buildout + reshoring capex
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
LONG

The AI-driven data center buildout requires massive power generation and backup systems — Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment is the backbone supplier of diesel generators, gas turbines, and power management systems for hyperscalers. Simultaneously, US infrastructure reshoring and the IRA spending wave are driving construction equipment demand. CAT is a world-class compounder trading at a reasonable multiple relative to earnings power. Consensus underestimates Energy & Transport as a multi-year growth driver.

DATA CENTER POWER IRA SPENDING RESHORING CAPEX E&T SEGMENT
MTZ
MasTec Inc.
LONG

MasTec is the picks-and-shovels play on US grid modernisation and renewable energy transmission. As the #1 utility-scale solar and wind EPC contractor in the US, it is directly exposed to the IRA-driven renewable buildout. The company is also a leading contractor for 5G wireless infrastructure and power grid upgrades. Margins are recovering after a difficult 2023 transition year, and the backlog is at record levels — visibility is high. The stock significantly lags the fundamental re-rating that has begun.

IRA TAILWIND GRID MODERNISATION RECORD BACKLOG MARGIN RECOVERY
THEME III — LONG OVERFEARED SAAS / AI RISK  ·  Market mispricing disruption fears
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
LONG

The market is pricing Microsoft as if AI is a cost centre and competitive threat, not an accelerant. In reality, Copilot is embedding AI across 400M+ Office seats, Azure's AI workloads are growing north of 50% YoY, and enterprise switching costs are near-infinite. The AI disruption narrative actually strengthens Microsoft's moat — it controls both the productivity layer (Office) and the infrastructure layer (Azure/OpenAI). The stock is a high-quality compounder with a widening moat being sold at a multiple that underestimates the AI monetisation cycle.

COPILOT MONETISATION AZURE AI GROWTH ENTERPRISE LOCK-IN OPENAI OPTIONALITY
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive
LONG

Take-Two is mis-valued on near-term losses while the market ignores the magnitude of GTA VI. The game is the most anticipated software release in history — pre-launch monetisation from in-game purchases, GTA+ subscriptions, and Shark Cards creates a multi-year cash flow compounding engine. The market prices TTWO on current-year GAAP losses; I value it on the normalised free cash flow engine post-GTA VI launch. AI actually helps Take-Two — generative AI slashes content development costs while enriching game world depth. Fear of disruption is precisely backwards here.

GTA VI LAUNCH GTA+ SUBSCRIPTION AI COST SAVINGS RECURRING MONETISATION
UBER
Uber Technologies Inc.
LONG

The market fears autonomous vehicles will destroy Uber. I believe the opposite — Uber will be the primary distribution layer for robotaxi fleets. Waymo and Tesla don't want to manage driver supply, insurance, customer support, or demand aggregation at scale. Uber does. Its network effect (platform with 150M+ monthly users) is the distribution moat that no AV player can replicate cheaply. Meanwhile the core rideshare business is printing free cash flow. Uber is being priced as if it will be disrupted; it is actually the disruption aggregator.

ROBOTAXI AGGREGATOR WAYMO PARTNERSHIP FCF ACCELERATION NETWORK EFFECT
THEME IV — SHORT OIL  ·  Demand destruction + OPEC+ discipline breakdown
SCO
ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil
SHORT OIL

Oil is structurally vulnerable to a demand-side growth disappointment. China's recovery is weaker than expected, EV penetration is accelerating oil demand displacement, and OPEC+ cohesion is fracturing as members cheat on quotas to defend fiscal budgets. SCO provides a leveraged 2x inverse crude exposure — the thesis is not a day-trade but a medium-term view on normalising oil prices below the market's implied structural floor. A US recession scenario accelerates the downside sharply.

OPEC+ FRACTURE EV DISPLACEMENT CHINA DEMAND MISS RECESSION RISK
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group ADR
SHORT OIL BENEFICIARY

LATAM is positioned asymmetrically — while I am short oil as a theme, LATAM benefits directly from lower jet fuel costs (fuel is ~30% of COGS) while serving a high-growth Latin American travel market. Post-bankruptcy restructuring has created a leaner cost base. The stock is early in its re-rating as institutional investors who avoided the bankruptcy emerge are now comfortable re-entering. A falling oil price environment dramatically expands margins and free cash flow. This is the long side of the oil thesis — own the beneficiary, short the commodity.

FUEL COST TAILWIND LATAM TRAVEL GROWTH POST-BANKRUPTCY RESET INSTITUTIONAL RE-ENTRY
DEEP DIVE — CHINA CONSUMER  ·  Special situation · Detailed research report
LKNCY
Luckin Coffee Inc. · OTCMKTS
LONG
3Y HOLD
PT $147.20 +390%
Entry: $37.69 · Dec 2025
⬇ Full Report (PDF)
THESIS I — VALUATION

Trading at 19x P/E vs. 36x peer median despite 56% YoY revenue growth. Discount anchored to legacy fraud concerns — no longer warranted. Re-rating to peer median EV/Revenue of 3.8× implies 145% upside, excluding earnings growth.

THESIS II — MARGIN EXPANSION

Delivery price war ends earlier than consensus (Q4 2025 vs H1 2026). Opex falls from ~53% to ~47%, adding ¥20mn+ to net income. Gross margin expands 2–5% as competition rationalises.

THESIS III — TECH MOAT

Proprietary data-driven R&D (app DAU 5.5M vs Starbucks 1.1M). 8-month store payback vs 2.5–4 years for Starbucks. ~31k stores vs 60k modelled capacity — halfway through expansion cycle.

NASDAQ RELISTING PRICE WAR END MARGIN EXPANSION RURAL EXPANSION
RISKS: OTC liquidity · Relisting delay · China macro · Governance overhang · Cotti / Mixue competition
03

IDEAS PIPELINE

Prices last updated: —
TCOM
Trip.com Group — China Online Travel
CHINA REOPENING REGULATION EASING OUTBOUND TRAVEL
Market has been pricing in severe regulatory overhang on China internet — the actual policy environment is materially softer than feared. Trip.com is the dominant OTA in the world's largest outbound travel market, with a structurally underpenetrated inbound corridor. Regulatory risk de-rating creates a compelling entry; earnings power is significantly above consensus.
▸ NEAR ENTRY
BMWYY
BMW AG ADR — European Premium EV
EV EUROPE SALES PREMIUM BRAND VALUATION GAP
BMW's European EV volumes are running ahead of street expectations — the i4, iX, and new Neue Klasse pipeline put BMW at the premium end of a structurally growing segment. The stock trades at a deep discount to US EV peers despite superior brand equity, profitability, and dividend yield. European OEM de-rating has been indiscriminate; BMW is being punished for an industry transition it is better positioned than most to navigate.
▸ MONITORING
CROX
Crocs Inc. — Footwear Brand Compounder
BRAND RESILIENCE HEYDUDE RECOVERY FCF GENERATION
Crocs the brand is one of the most misunderstood consumer compounders — repeat purchase rates are high, brand affinity is durable across demographics, and international expansion is still early innings. HEYDUDE integration drag has weighed on sentiment but the core Crocs segment continues to grow with expanding margins. The stock is cheap on a FCF basis and management is buying back aggressively. Resilient growth at an undemanding multiple.
▸ NEAR ENTRY
05

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

08
Mar 2026
Issue #12
NVIDIA'S BLACKWELL SUPERCYCLE & THE NEXT LEG OF AI CAPEX

This week I dive deep into NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU ramp and what the accelerating hyperscaler CAPEX commitments mean for the AI infrastructure trade. Microsoft, Google, and Meta all guided above-consensus for data center spend. I walk through my updated Blackwell revenue model and why I believe street estimates are still too low for FY2026.

NVDA MSFT GOOGL META TSM
01
Mar 2026
Issue #11
ALIBABA'S INFLECTION: CLOUD MARGINS & THE CHINA RE-RATING TRADE

BABA's latest quarter showed the first meaningful inflection in Cloud segment margins. I revisit my SOTP valuation and make the case that the market is still pricing in excessive regulatory risk. China's stimulus posture is shifting, and AI-driven demand for Alibaba Cloud is accelerating with their Qwen model family gaining traction domestically.

BABA JD PDD BIDU
22
Feb 2026
Issue #10
SHORT THESIS REVIEW: WHY BYND IS A ZERO

I update my Beyond Meat short thesis after their latest quarterly disaster. Revenue declined 23% YoY, gross margins remain deeply negative, and the cash runway is shrinking fast. Consumer behavior data confirms the plant-based narrative is structurally broken — not cyclically soft. I examine what a path to zero looks like and how I'm sizing the short.

BYND OTLY TTCF
15
Feb 2026
Issue #09
MERCADOLIBRE: THE MOST UNDERAPPRECIATED COMPOUNDER IN EM

MELI quietly printed another exceptional quarter — Fintech revenue +68% YoY, TPV accelerating, credit portfolio performing ahead of expectations. I build out a 5-year DCF and compare MELI's unit economics to PayPal and Sea Limited. My conclusion: MELI deserves a premium multiple and is still mispriced relative to its earnings power.

MELI SE PYPL NU
04

ABOUT

ALEX CHEN
Equity Investor · Incoming BNP Paribas Fixed Income Summer Analyst

I am a long-only value investor focused on US and China equity markets, with a deep conviction that superior returns come from disciplined top-down macro analysis combined with rigorous bottom-up fundamental research.

My professional experience spans institutional equity research and asset management across Asia. At Nomura Securities, I covered Asia consumer staples as an equity research analyst, initiating coverage on the global tobacco industry and producing research delivered to 200+ institutional clients. At Manulife Investment Management, I supported a fixed-income and A-shares portfolio that achieved a top ranking (1st out of 3,000 funds) in China A-Shares. I am currently an incoming BNP Paribas Fixed Income Summer Analyst (Jun–Aug 2026) and hold the CFA Level 1 designation.

This portfolio documents my live investment thinking. My ambition is to build a career as an equity research analyst and eventually portfolio manager — with the same rigour and passion I bring to every position here.

[email protected] ⬇ Download Resume
Investment Philosophy
  • Top-down macro first — macro sets the table, stock selection fills the plate
  • Concentrated portfolio of high-conviction ideas, not diversification for its own sake
  • Identify value/growth discrepancy — buy quality growing faster than the market believes
  • Long-only; own businesses with durable competitive advantages and asymmetric upside
  • US and China focus — where I have informational and analytical edge
Experience & Credentials
Nomura — Asia Consumer ER Manulife — Asia Tech / AM BNP Paribas — FI (Incoming) Rand & Co — Private Equity CFA Level 1 Emory University B.S. Econ + CS Python · SQL · Bloomberg English · Mandarin
Areas of Focus
US Equities China Equities Basic Materials Energy Infrastructure Consumer Technology / SaaS Special Situations Macro-Driven Thematic