Active Since Jan 2025
Long-only value investing across US and China equities. Top-down macro framework, concentrated high-conviction ideas, focused on value/growth discrepancy.
The structural copper deficit is the most underappreciated commodity story of this decade. AI data centers, EV drivetrains, and grid electrification are all copper-intensive at scale — and global mine supply is stagnant. FCX is the largest publicly-traded pure-play copper producer with irreplaceable tier-1 assets (Grasberg). At current copper prices the stock is cheap; at consensus 2026 copper forecasts it is extremely cheap. The re-rating hasn't happened yet.
Gold is in a secular bull market driven by de-dollarisation, central bank accumulation, and real rate uncertainty. Barrick is the highest-quality senior gold producer — diversified jurisdiction, balance sheet net cash, and free cash flow generative above $1,800/oz. At $2,400+ gold the stock trades at a significant discount to NAV. Management's operational improvements are not yet priced in. A hard macro landing accelerates the thesis.
The AI-driven data center buildout requires massive power generation and backup systems — Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment is the backbone supplier of diesel generators, gas turbines, and power management systems for hyperscalers. Simultaneously, US infrastructure reshoring and the IRA spending wave are driving construction equipment demand. CAT is a world-class compounder trading at a reasonable multiple relative to earnings power. Consensus underestimates Energy & Transport as a multi-year growth driver.
MasTec is the picks-and-shovels play on US grid modernisation and renewable energy transmission. As the #1 utility-scale solar and wind EPC contractor in the US, it is directly exposed to the IRA-driven renewable buildout. The company is also a leading contractor for 5G wireless infrastructure and power grid upgrades. Margins are recovering after a difficult 2023 transition year, and the backlog is at record levels — visibility is high. The stock significantly lags the fundamental re-rating that has begun.
The market is pricing Microsoft as if AI is a cost centre and competitive threat, not an accelerant. In reality, Copilot is embedding AI across 400M+ Office seats, Azure's AI workloads are growing north of 50% YoY, and enterprise switching costs are near-infinite. The AI disruption narrative actually strengthens Microsoft's moat — it controls both the productivity layer (Office) and the infrastructure layer (Azure/OpenAI). The stock is a high-quality compounder with a widening moat being sold at a multiple that underestimates the AI monetisation cycle.
Take-Two is mis-valued on near-term losses while the market ignores the magnitude of GTA VI. The game is the most anticipated software release in history — pre-launch monetisation from in-game purchases, GTA+ subscriptions, and Shark Cards creates a multi-year cash flow compounding engine. The market prices TTWO on current-year GAAP losses; I value it on the normalised free cash flow engine post-GTA VI launch. AI actually helps Take-Two — generative AI slashes content development costs while enriching game world depth. Fear of disruption is precisely backwards here.
The market fears autonomous vehicles will destroy Uber. I believe the opposite — Uber will be the primary distribution layer for robotaxi fleets. Waymo and Tesla don't want to manage driver supply, insurance, customer support, or demand aggregation at scale. Uber does. Its network effect (platform with 150M+ monthly users) is the distribution moat that no AV player can replicate cheaply. Meanwhile the core rideshare business is printing free cash flow. Uber is being priced as if it will be disrupted; it is actually the disruption aggregator.
Oil is structurally vulnerable to a demand-side growth disappointment. China's recovery is weaker than expected, EV penetration is accelerating oil demand displacement, and OPEC+ cohesion is fracturing as members cheat on quotas to defend fiscal budgets. SCO provides a leveraged 2x inverse crude exposure — the thesis is not a day-trade but a medium-term view on normalising oil prices below the market's implied structural floor. A US recession scenario accelerates the downside sharply.
LATAM is positioned asymmetrically — while I am short oil as a theme, LATAM benefits directly from lower jet fuel costs (fuel is ~30% of COGS) while serving a high-growth Latin American travel market. Post-bankruptcy restructuring has created a leaner cost base. The stock is early in its re-rating as institutional investors who avoided the bankruptcy emerge are now comfortable re-entering. A falling oil price environment dramatically expands margins and free cash flow. This is the long side of the oil thesis — own the beneficiary, short the commodity.
Trading at 19x P/E vs. 36x peer median despite 56% YoY revenue growth. Discount anchored to legacy fraud concerns — no longer warranted. Re-rating to peer median EV/Revenue of 3.8× implies 145% upside, excluding earnings growth.
Delivery price war ends earlier than consensus (Q4 2025 vs H1 2026). Opex falls from ~53% to ~47%, adding ¥20mn+ to net income. Gross margin expands 2–5% as competition rationalises.
Proprietary data-driven R&D (app DAU 5.5M vs Starbucks 1.1M). 8-month store payback vs 2.5–4 years for Starbucks. ~31k stores vs 60k modelled capacity — halfway through expansion cycle.
I am a long-only value investor focused on US and China equity markets, with a deep conviction that superior returns come from disciplined top-down macro analysis combined with rigorous bottom-up fundamental research.
My professional experience spans institutional equity research and asset management across Asia. At Nomura Securities, I covered Asia consumer staples as an equity research analyst, initiating coverage on the global tobacco industry and producing research delivered to 200+ institutional clients. At Manulife Investment Management, I supported a fixed-income and A-shares portfolio that achieved a top ranking (1st out of 3,000 funds) in China A-Shares. I am currently an incoming BNP Paribas Fixed Income Summer Analyst (Jun–Aug 2026) and hold the CFA Level 1 designation.
This portfolio documents my live investment thinking. My ambition is to build a career as an equity research analyst and eventually portfolio manager — with the same rigour and passion I bring to every position here.