Research.
Conviction.
Accountability.
6 Jan 2025 – 16 Oct 2026
Self-reported · unaudited · partly reconstructed
A visible record of the work.
SPY: total return, dividends reinvested. NSDQ: Nasdaq Composite price return. Return definitions ↗
Two connected research desks.
The AI investment desk ↗
Follow capital from the hyperscaler to the supply chain. Track demand, cash generation and the papers changing the economics.
02 / CLIMATE & COMMODITIESThe climate investment desk ↗
Explore seven agricultural markets, country production and fixed house views. Connect the original sugar thesis to CANE and AGRO valuation.
Free tools from the same desk: Trade Checkup · 交易体检 ↗ — upload a broker trade history and see your trading type and most expensive habit, analysed in your browser — and the A-share clinic · 被套诊所 ↗, base rates for positions held at a loss.
Investment cases.
Micron: underwrite the memory content, then the cycle
The investment question is how much of today's memory profitability survives the next capacity response. HBM qualification and product mix can extend the earnings cycle, but record margins are a starting point for stress testing.
AMAT & Lam: test the second leg of the memory cycle
High memory profits can fund another wave of equipment spending. The trade needs orders, process intensity and customer budgets to confirm the lag; a memory share-price rally is not an equipment order.
Uber: who owns demand when the driver changes?
Autonomous vehicles create a bargaining contest between the fleet and the demand platform. Uber's opportunity is to improve fleet utilization while retaining profitable customer access; availability alone does not prove either.
New working drafts expand the dated Ideas archive; they are separate from previously published author reports.