10Thu
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (September)
Alert status and the strength probabilities; 'past peak' language is the December–January signal, not yet
NOAA CPC
Research monitoring
Catalyst calendar.
The company events, policy decisions and macro releases that matter to the research book. Approximate dates are marked in the calendar.
Thesis-moving events ahead
23
26 incl. macro · through Jun 30, 2027
Next event
2 d
Lam Research (LRCX) FQ1 2027 results
Next holdings print
Oct 28
FOMC decision
Next El Niño node
Nov 12
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (November)
Events by month
Sep 2026 · 10 events
11Fri
US CPI (August)
Headline CPI index level (NSA) consensus 334.85 vs 333.92 prior — about +0.3% m/m; the market trades the m/m and y/y prints, not the level
BLS via FMP
11Fri
USDA WASDE (September)
Grain balances; sugar is covered in the USDA sugar tables
USDA
15Tue
Trip.com (TCOM) Q2 2026 results
Date per management communication; FMP still shows the earlier August slot
Company
16Wed
FOMC decision, projections and press conference
FMP calendar consensus 4.00% vs 3.75% prior, i.e. a 25 bp hike as the calendar base case; projections and press conference the same day
Federal Reserve via FMP
29Tue
CANE roll: sells Mar-27, buys Jul-27
After the roll the fund holds May-27 / Jul-27 / Mar-28; watch the Mar/Jul backwardation into the roll
Teucrium roll schedule
30Wed
India sugar export ban expiry; ethanol-diversion decision
The policy node: base 50% (ban extended, diversion trimmed to 2.4–3.0 Mt) / bearish 25% / bullish 25%. Ledger en8-02
DGFT / Ministry of Food
30Wed
IMD monsoon season closes
Base needs −10% or worse; −8% or better with Maharashtra recovering is the bearish branch
IMD
30Wed
Micron (MU) FQ4 2026 results
Consensus EPS $31.14 on revenue $50.4B
FMP
30Wed
US PCE (August)
Core PCE prior 3.3% y/y; consensus not yet published
BEA via FMP
Oct 2026 · 12 events
1Thu
Indonesia B50 biodiesel mandate takes effect
Removes 16–17 Mt of palm oil from the export market on top of the weather
Indonesian government
1Thu
India 2026/27 sugar season opens; opening stocks (ISMA / NFCSF)
≈ 3.0–3.5 Mt estimated, a decade low; above 4 Mt softens the import case
ISMA / NFCSF
2Fri
US payrolls (September)
Consensus +120k vs +162k prior; unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.1%
BLS via FMP
7Wed
FOMC minutes
Federal Reserve
8Thu
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (October)
NOAA CPC
14Wed
US CPI (September)
BLS via FMP
21Wed
Lam Research (LRCX) FQ1 2027 results
Consensus EPS $2.15 on revenue $8.13B; 2027 WFE commentary is the kill-criterion check. Position closed in early October 2026; still the read-across for the 2% AMAT position
FMP
27Tue
Mondelez (MDLZ) Q3 results
Cocoa cost outlook for 2027
Company
28Wed
Vertiv (VRT) Q3 2026 results
Consensus EPS $1.83 on revenue $3.76B. Not held since early September 2026
FMP
28Wed
FOMC decision
Rate decision, statement and press conference; the first FOMC since the Treasury position (TLT 35%, IEI 15%) was built in early October
Federal Reserve
29Thu
Hershey (HSY) Q3 results
FY26 EPS guide $8.36–8.52; 'visibility into cocoa deflation for 2027'
FMP
29Thu
Intel Q3 2026 results
Consensus EPS $0.40 on $16.5bn revenue (FMP); the stock entered after its fall from $127 to below $100
Intel
Nov 2026 · 10 events
4Wed
Bunge (BG), CF Industries (CF), Nutrien (NTR) Q3 results
BG: crush margins and the Brazilian sugar-mill sale; CF: urea and gas costs
FMP
4Wed
Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (scheduled)
Coupon auction sizes for the November–January quarter; the long-end supply signal for the TLT sleeve
U.S. Treasury
5Thu
Corteva (CTVA), Mosaic (MOS) Q3 results
FMP
5Thu
Oscar Health Q3 2026 results
Consensus EPS −$0.14 on $4.7bn revenue (FMP); first print since the position was built
Oscar Health
10Tue
Adecoagro (AGRO) 3Q26 results
FY26 EBITDA path (≥ $680M confirms; < $570M exits) and the 2027 hedge ratio (≤ 25% keeps the overlay case)
FMP
12Thu
Applied Materials (AMAT) FQ4 2026 results
Consensus EPS $4.05 on revenue $10.3B. First look at calendar-2027 WFE guidance; also the test of the early-October semicap exit (2% AMAT still held)
FMP
12Thu
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (November)
Halve trigger if the peak is called before November
NOAA CPC
15Sun
ISMA first 2026/27 advance estimate
≤ 30 Mt validates the base (hold); ≥ 32 Mt is 'no shortage' (trim half). Ledger en8-01
ISMA
20Fri
ISO quarterly balance; USDA Sugar: World Markets and Trade
Base needs −1 to −3 Mt validated; convergence on −0.2 supports the bear branch
ISO / USDA FAS
25Wed
Deere (DE) FQ4 results
Not on the transmission chain; 2026 called the bottom of the equipment cycle
FMP
Dec 2026 · 3 events
9Wed
FOMC decision and projections
Federal Reserve
10Thu
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (December) — peak confirmation window opens
'Past peak' language begins the exit of the sugar leg; palm watchlist activation condition (i)
NOAA CPC
15Tue
CANE annual distribution (typical timing)
Teucrium
Jan 2027 · 2 events
14Thu
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (January)
NOAA CPC
31Sun
End of the sugar window
Sugar leg closed by end-January unless India's net imports reach 2 Mt. Ledger en8-03, en8-04, en8-05 resolve
Issue #8
Feb 2027 · 2 events
11Thu
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (February)
NOAA CPC
28Sun
Brazil 2027/28 estimates consensus check
≥ 43 Mt with normal rain closes the sugar leg and starts the palm narrative. Ledger en8-06
Datagro / Hedgepoint / StoneX
Mar 2027 · 1 event
31Wed
Adecoagro 4Q26 / FY26 results
Ledger en8-08 resolves (FY26 adjusted EBITDA ≥ $630M)
Company
Apr 2027 · 1 event
30Fri
Brazil 2027/28 crush begins
The scheduled end of the sugar story; the palm chain's yield decline is 6–18 months after the peak
UNICA
Jun 2027 · 1 event
30Wed
Palm-oil forecast resolves
Ledger en8-07: BMD third-month CPO in June 2027 vs December 2026
BMD
Company dates from Financial Modeling Prep and company communications; macro dates from the FMP economic calendar; ENSO and sugar-market dates from the agencies' published schedules. The calendar is a JSON file on the server (calendar.json).
Next up
Next up · as of Oct 19, 2026
2 dLam Research (LRCX) FQ1 2027 resultsOct 21, 2026 · Research vehicles8 dMondelez (MDLZ) Q3 resultsOct 27, 2026 · Research vehicles9 dVertiv (VRT) Q3 2026 resultsOct 28, 2026 · Research vehicles10 dHershey (HSY) Q3 resultsOct 29, 2026 · Research vehicles10 dIntel Q3 2026 resultsOct 29, 2026 · HoldingsRecurring releases
Recurring
MondaysNOAA CPC weekly Niño3.4 update
FridaysCFTC Commitments of Traders (sugar #11 positioning)
FortnightlyUNICA / MAPA Centre-South crush and sugar mix; BoM ENSO update (Tuesdays)
≈ 10th monthlyMPOB palm-oil stocks; JMA El Niño outlook
Second ThursdayCPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
≈ 19th monthlyIRI / CPC probabilistic ENSO forecast