Catalyst calendar.

Date per management communication; FMP still shows the earlier August slot

After the roll the fund holds May-27 / Jul-27 / Mar-28; watch the Mar/Jul backwardation into the roll

The policy node: base 50% (ban extended, diversion trimmed to 2.4–3.0 Mt) / bearish 25% / bullish 25%. Ledger en8-02

Base needs −10% or worse; −8% or better with Maharashtra recovering is the bearish branch

Consensus EPS $31.14 on revenue $50.4B

Removes 16–17 Mt of palm oil from the export market on top of the weather

≈ 3.0–3.5 Mt estimated, a decade low; above 4 Mt softens the import case

Consensus EPS $2.15 on revenue $8.13B; 2027 WFE commentary is the kill-criterion check

Cocoa cost outlook for 2027

Consensus EPS $1.83 on revenue $3.76B

FY26 EPS guide $8.36–8.52; 'visibility into cocoa deflation for 2027'

BG: crush margins and the Brazilian sugar-mill sale; CF: urea and gas costs

FY26 EBITDA path (≥ $680M confirms; < $570M exits) and the 2027 hedge ratio (≤ 25% keeps the overlay case)

Consensus EPS $4.05 on revenue $10.3B

Halve trigger if the peak is called before November

≤ 30 Mt validates the base (hold); ≥ 32 Mt is 'no shortage' (trim half). Ledger en8-01

Base needs −1 to −3 Mt validated; convergence on −0.2 supports the bear branch

Not on the transmission chain; 2026 called the bottom of the equipment cycle

'Past peak' language begins the exit of the sugar leg; palm watchlist activation condition (i)

Sugar leg closed by end-January unless India's net imports reach 2 Mt. Ledger en8-03, en8-04, en8-05 resolve

≥ 43 Mt with normal rain closes the sugar leg and starts the palm narrative. Ledger en8-06

Ledger en8-08 resolves (FY26 adjusted EBITDA ≥ $630M)

The scheduled end of the sugar story; the palm chain's yield decline is 6–18 months after the peak

Ledger en8-07: BMD third-month CPO in June 2027 vs December 2026