01 / Variant view
What does the market believe, and where does the evidence differ?
Investment approach
A repeatable research process.
Start with a variant view. Test it against primary evidence. Make valuation, catalysts and the conditions for changing your mind explicit.
From question to decision
02 / Evidence
Identify the few facts that carry the thesis, with primary sources.
03 / Valuation
Translate the business case into scenarios, probabilities and value.
04 / Catalysts
Date the events that can settle the investment argument.
05 / Risk discipline
State the observable conditions that invalidate the thesis.
06 / Review
Record outcomes, price performance and what the process missed.
Two tiers of research
Research →Model, variant view, valuation, catalysts, kill criteria and a published note (PDF). These are featured, scored as theses and keep their realised result when closed.
Holdings or watch-list names whose research is not finished. The reasoning is recorded in the same fields, but there is no full model or note behind them, so they are labelled and not scored as theses.
A note becomes a thesis when the write-up is published. The queue is public: the next one is the wafer-fab-equipment model behind the AMAT / LRCX position.
Seven instruments
Each one is a page on this site. The figure on the right is live from the same data file that renders the rest of the site.
MethodologyReturn basis, SPY total-return benchmark, weekly sampling and the formula behind every statistic.Rf 4.3% · weekly closesPerformance evidenceHow each period's weekly points were obtained — statement-verified or reconstructed — and the weekly series as a CSV.3 periods · 1 statement-verifiedForecast ledgerEvery dated, falsifiable forecast with its probability at publication and the source that settles it; Brier-scored on resolution, never edited after the fact.8 forecasts · 8 open · 0 resolvedCatalyst calendarThe dated events that can change a thesis or a position, with what each would change. Macro releases are kept behind a filter.Thesis-moving events by defaultTrackersA thesis with a long clock gets a page that watches it: live data, thresholds that would change the view, and a log of every revision.1 live · Super El Niño 2026-27Closed trades & post-mortemsEvery closed position with entry, exit, dates and the lesson it paid for; losses grouped by cause.19 closed · 63% winnersResearch notesThe published PDFs behind the underwritten theses — thematic and macro notes, single-stock memos, sector deep-dives.8 issues · 12 underwritten theses