MINGYANG FUNDIndependent investment research

MINGYANG / CLIMATE & AGRICULTURE

From growing regions to investment returns.

Seven agricultural markets. One clear chain of reasoning: weather, supply, price, earnings and what is already priced in.

Original research ↗Dated research archive ↗

PUBLISHED HOUSE MODEL / 2026-09-08

The sugar thesis, fully underwritten.

Policy → deliverable balance → futures curve → fund NAV and operating earnings.

Mingyang Fund Research · Issue 8, second edition ↗

Mar-27 sugar / market forward19.05¢

4 September 2026 curve

Our probability-weighted view21.00¢

End-January 2027 · +10.2% vs forward

CANE / weighted value$12.45

Reference $11.46 · January 2027

AGRO / weighted value$13.2

Reference $12.19 · FY27 valuation

Bear / 25% WEIGHT15.0¢Mar-27 raw sugar at end-January 2027

Ethanol-diversion curbs release 2–3 Mt of sugar; imports fall short of the 1 Mt quota; the ban lapses into a 'relaxed' regime; late-September rain lifts the season toward −10%

CANE: $9.83
AGRO: $3.2

Base / 50% WEIGHT21.5¢Mar-27 raw sugar at end-January 2027

Ban extended (formally or 'until further orders'); ethanol diversion trimmed modestly (2.4–3.0 Mt); ≈ 1 Mt of imports arrive by October–November; Maharashtra's crush delayed to mid-October

CANE: $12.67
AGRO: $13.6

Bull / 25% WEIGHT26.0¢Mar-27 raw sugar at end-January 2027

Net imports of 2 Mt or more; ban extended through 2027; ethanol diversion maintained on political grounds; Thailand confirms below 10 Mt

CANE: $14.63
AGRO: $22.3

2026-09-04 futures curve; September 8 CANE/AGRO reference prices. Raw sugar / CANE: end-January 2027. AGRO: FY27 earnings and end-2027 balance sheet. These are the original dated views, not current market quotes.

CANE · from deferred contracts to NAV

Contract / post-roll basket	Weight	Entry · c/lb	Bear	Base	Bull
May-27 (second-to-expire)	35%	18.44	15.2	21.0	25.0
Jul-27 (third-to-expire, bought at the roll)	30%	18.06	15.4	20.3	23.5
Mar-28 (following March)	35%	18.41	16.3	19.3	21.5

Portfolio outcome	Bear	Base	Bull
Published net return	-14.1%	10.8%	27.9%
Published value · USD/share	$9.83	$12.67	$14.63

Value = $11.44 NAV × (1 + weighted contract return + collateral carry − expenses). Annual T-bill yield 3.7%; expense ratio 2.48%; holding period 0.4 years. Carry contribution approximately 0.5 percentage points. The headline March contract is not the post-roll basket.

AGRO · from realized prices to equity value

FY27 average sugar prices differ from the end-January futures scenarios. Hedges, ethanol, fertilizer, debt and minorities all matter.

Earnings and valuation bridge · USD m unless stated	Bear	Base	Bull
FY27 average raw sugar (c/lb) — end-January scenario 15 / 21.5 / 26c	15.0	20.0	24.5
Hedged 16% of volume at 17.4c → realised price (c/lb)	15.4	19.6	23.4
Sugar ≈ 1.0 Mt (2.2 bn lb) incl. Caarapó: Δ sugar EBITDA vs base at $22M per cent	−93	0	+83
Ethanol and cogeneration vs base	−15	0	+25
Sugar, ethanol & energy EBITDA	277	385	493
Urea realised ($/t; 2Q26 actual $699, August FOB ≈ $570) → Fertilizer EBITDA	450 → 235	550 → 335	650 → 435
Farming & land / Corporate	50 / −55	65 / −55	85 / −55
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA	507	730	958
EV/EBITDA (bear multiple compresses as leverage rises) → enterprise value	5.0x → 2,537	5.5x → 4,015	5.5x → 5,271
Less net debt at end-2027 / minorities	1,950 / 130	1,900 / 150	1,850 / 200
Equity value → per share vs $12.19	457 → $3.2 (−74%)	1,965 → $13.6 (+12%)	3,221 → $22.3 (+83%)

Equity value = EBITDA × EV/EBITDA − net debt − minorities; 144.3 million shares.

Published model reconciliation

Published targets are retained exactly. Recalculation from the rounded curve/earnings inputs differs by up to $0.004 per CANE share and $0.047 per AGRO share. AGRO enterprise values displayed in the original table differ by $2 million in the bear and bull cases from multiplying its rounded EBITDA and multiples; no undocumented precision is assumed.

Scenario	CANE recalculated / published	AGRO from rounded inputs / published
bear	9.8279 / 9.83	3.1532 / 3.2
base	12.6709 / 12.67	13.6175 / 13.6
bull	14.6261 / 14.63	22.3077 / 22.3

Download fixed models and source register ↓

CPC advisory

El Niño

NOAA update · 10 Sep 2026

Very strong event

>90%

CPC probability · fall / winter 2026–27

Mar-27 reference

19.05¢

Sugar forward · 4 Sep 2026

Model fair value

21.00¢

Probability-weighted · Issue 8

Climate in focus

Monthly Niño3.4: historical comparisons

January of the onset year to June of the next year. Anomaly in °C, base period 1991–2020. Dashed line: +2.0°C.

Weekly Niño3.4: the event trajectory

The research rule halves the sleeve after four consecutive weeks below +2.0°C. Last build observation: 2 Sep 2026.

Latest monthly update · 10 Sep 2026

NOAA maintains an El Niño advisory and assigns a 75% chance of a historic event in October–December. The next monthly discussion is scheduled for 8 October. The investment scenarios below retain the assumptions published in Issue 8.

Read NOAA’s monthly discussion ↗

The investment view

Read the thesis and research update · Issue 8

Record current conditions are observable and a record peak is the consensus base case of NOAA, the IRI, JMA and BoM; the crop and price consequences remain uncertain, and that is where the work is. Raw sugar has already collected the historical event-discovery premium (May→August +12% against a four-event median of +13%); what remains is the India-data premium. Because the sugar ETF holds deferred contracts, the probability-weighted return is +8.8% for CANE, not the +16% a front-month comparison suggests. Grains and fertilizers are not on the transmission chain; palm oil is, but as a 2027 story to be built after the ONI peak. Sugar reversals have begun at the peak month unless India turned net importer, so the position needs an exit rule before end-January 2027.

Research delta · as of Sep 9, 2026Update log →

What changed since the last update?

Second edition of the note (8 Sep) replaced the first: the CANE expected return is now contract by contract (+8.8%) rather than front-month (+16%); the AGRO earnings bridge and the illustrative sleeves were added; the historical comparisons gained a non-El Niño control. Since the note: NOAA's week of 2 September prints +2.7°C (from +2.6°C), CANE closed 8 Sep at $11.50 and AGRO at $12.24. No probability has changed.

What does the market believe?

The Mar-27 forward at 19.05c is the market's mean for end-January; the curve prices Q1-27 as the tightest point; a lognormal at 30% implied volatility puts 23% on ≥21.5c and 12% on ≤15c. Equities have already re-rated the theme (CF +28%, AGRO +23%, CANE +22% since 16 June) and a record managed-money long owns it.

What do I believe?

21.0c probability-weighted (15 / 21.5 / 26c at 25 / 50 / 25%): the event-discovery premium is collected, the India-data premium is half-priced, and both tails are fatter than a lognormal because the 30 September policy decision is bimodal. Sugar is a pre-peak trade with a calendar exit; palm oil is the post-peak trade to be built after the December CPC confirmation.

What evidence would change my mind?

Bearish: ethanol-diversion curbs releasing 2–3 Mt or the export ban lapsing (55 / 35 / 10); the season closing at −8% or better with Maharashtra recovering; ISMA at or above 32 Mt; four weekly Niño3.4 prints below +2.0°C. Bullish: net imports of 2 Mt or more; ISMA at or below 30 Mt with a delayed crush start (15 / 50 / 35).

What is the resulting action?

What the note's rules say a position built now does: add to full size only on the 30 September base branch; exit on the bearish branch; trim half on late rain or an ISMA print above 32 Mt; begin the exit when CPC confirms the peak and close by end-January unless India's net imports reach 2 Mt. Sizing is a separate decision and is not made on this page.

Monitoring panel

Eight indicators, their current state, the reference that gives them meaning, what each one would do to the thesis, and when it next updates. The first row refreshes from NOAA; the rest are updated by hand with each data release.

#	Indicator	Current state	Reference / context	Thesis impact	Next update	Read
1	Niño3.4 weekly; upper-ocean heat content	+2.7°C weekly Niño3.4, week of Sep 2 (NOAA, live) · 0 weeks below +2.0°C+2.7°C traditional (week of 2 Sep, published 8 Sep); +1.8°C relative in the 31 Aug update; heat content +3.22°C (Aug)	1997 and 2015 in August ≈ +1.65°C; heat content a record since 1979	Supports strength; four weeks below +2.0°C or a peak called before November breaks the pre-peak framing	Mondays; CPC 10 Sep, 8 Oct	Supports
2	India monsoon (cumulative departure)	−13% to 4 Sep; Maharashtra −14%, Karnataka −24%, Uttar Pradesh −1%	−14% (2015) and −22% (2009) preceded 12–15% cane-yield losses; 2023's −6% did not	Base needs a close at −10% or worse; −8% or better with Maharashtra recovering is the bearish branch	IMD to 30 Sep	Supports
3	India sugar stocks (1 Oct opening)	≈ 3.0–3.5 Mt estimated	Decade low; 5.5–6 Mt is normal	Tight stocks make every policy move price-relevant; above 4 Mt softens the import case	ISMA / NFCSF, October	Supports
4	Brazil Centre-South sugar mix	42.5% cumulative (vs 51%)	Ethanol parity ≈ 13.3c vs sugar 18c: a ≈ 4.7c premium to maximise sugar	Mix reverting toward 50% is the supply response and the scheduled end of the leg	UNICA / MAPA fortnightly	Neutral
5	Managed-money net / open interest	+234k lots = 18.3% (1 Sep)	From −18.5% on 23 June; gross long plus short a record	Crowding turns fundamentals into flow: the divergence rule (Table 9), 3% daily moves	CFTC Fridays	Against
6	Mar-27 / Jul-27 spread; Oct-26 / Mar-27	+0.99c backwardation; +0.98c contango	The curve's 'Q1-27 tightest' shape; CANE's 29 Sep roll earns ≈ 1.9% if it holds	Mar/Jul backwardation collapsing before the roll = nearby tightness fading; widening = confirmation	Daily	Supports
7	2026/27 world balance estimates	Median −1.3 Mt (range −0.1 to −3.2 Mt)	ISO's first deficit call on 1 Sep; the price implies ≈ 2 Mt of tightening since May	Base needs −1 to −3 Mt validated by Oct–Nov data; convergence on −0.2 supports the bear branch	ISO Nov; USDA Nov; houses monthly	Neutral
8	Adecoagro 2027 hedge ratio	≈ 16% at 17.4c (2Q26 disclosure)	2026: ≈ 75% at 15.7c	If management locks 2027 at 19–20c the operating leverage — the overlay's job — disappears	3Q26 results, 10 Nov	Supports

Agency calls · research snapshot

NOAA CPCEl Niño Advisory; > 90% very strong; 69% historic (OND RONI ≥ +2.5°C)Aug 13, 2026

IRI25 of 26 models in the very strong category for Oct–DecAug 19, 2026

JMAJuly NIÑO.3 tying with 1997Aug 10, 2026

BoMRecord values expected by quite a significant marginSep 1, 2026

Vehicles

Thesis cards →

Reference prices are those in the note (8 September); "Last" is a delayed quote and "Since ref." the move since. Probability-weighted values and expected returns are the note's estimates, before dividends unless stated. Only CANE, AGRO and BG are on the sugar transmission chain.

Vehicle	Stance	Ref. price	Last	Since ref.	PW value	Expected	Window	Read
CANETeucrium Sugar (raw sugar #11) · thesis	POSITIVECore expression	$11.468 Sep intraday	—	—	$12.45	+8.6% net of carry$9.83 / $12.67 / $14.63 at 25 / 50 / 25 (Mar-27 at 15 / 21.5 / 26c)	Now → end-January 2027	Holds deferred contracts (May-27 / Jul-27 / Mar-28 after the 29 Sep roll) that capture 69–80% of the Mar-27 move; carry is close to a wash (+0.5% net over the window) because the TER (≈ 2.5%) is larger than the management fee. Liquidity is the operational constraint: daily turnover is a few million dollars.
AGROAdecoagro · thesis	POSITIVELow-weight convex overlay	$12.198 Sep intraday	—	—	$13.20	+8% (+2% dividend)$3.2 / $13.6 / $22.3	3Q26 on 10 Nov; FY27Results Nov 10, 2026	FY27 sugar 84% unhedged, plus urea. Sugar explains only $3.2 of the $10 bull-case upside; urea $3.8. Expected return is 0.48x its worst historical week against 1.0x for CANE: a low-weight convex overlay, not a second core position. Governance is the residual tail (controlling shareholder ≈ 70% after a 2025 tender).
BGBunge · thesis	CONDITIONALCrush-margin optionality	$125.328 Sep intraday, +5.4% on Viterra commentary	—	—	$112.00	−11% (+2.4% dividend)$69 / $112 / $155 (FY27E EPS $7.30 / $9.76 / $12.44 at 9.5 / 11.5 / 12.5x)	Attractive below $110 or on oilseed confirmationResults Nov 4, 2026	Selling its Brazilian sugar mills. Crush margins are strong for non-El Niño reasons (RVO clarity, a record July crush); attractive below $110 or on oilseed confirmation (Australian canola losses, a narrower palm–soy spread, a lasting Black Sea premium).
PALMPalm chain — KLK, SD Guthrie, IOI, Wilmar · thesis	WATCHLISTPost-peak trade, no US vehicle	—CPO RM4,977 (4 Sep)	—	—	—	Unpriced	Q1-27 → 2027	The best base rate of the theme (post-peak median +12%) but its clock is the opposite of sugar's: price highs came 5–13 months after the ONI peak. Activation conditions: (i) December CPC confirmation of the peak; (ii) MPOB stocks turning down from the Q4 seasonal high with fresh-fruit-bunch yields falling; (iii) CPO above RM4,500 through the production peak.
DBAInvesco DB Agriculture	WATCHNot an expression	$28.854 Sep close	—	—	—	Priced	—	Corn 13%, soybeans 13%, cattle 13%, hogs 10%, wheat 7%, softs ≈ 15% (sugar 6%); $609M of six-month inflows are the crowd's version of the theme, weighted to crops El Niño leaves neutral or lower.
CFCF Industries	WATCHSecond-order, re-rated	$133.354 Sep close	—	—	—	Priced	Results 4 NovResults Nov 4, 2026	+69% YTD on tight urea and gas costs (consensus EPS cut 6.7% in a month); second-order to El Niño (farm income, a warm winter → cheaper US gas); already re-rated. NTR / MOS / CTVA: second-order; avoid MOS (drought slows potash demand).
HSYHershey / Mondelez	WATCHShort thesis withdrawn	$173.004 Sep close	—	—	—	Priced	Results 29 / 27 OctResults Oct 29, 2026	Hershey raised FY26 EPS to $8.36–8.52 and has 'good visibility into cocoa deflation for 2027'; a squeeze needs the Dec–Feb harmattan to fail badly — a 2027 story with weak base-rate support.
DEDeere / AGCO; grain ETFs	AVOIDNot on the transmission chain	$694.004 Sep close	—	—	—	—	Results 25 NovResults Nov 25, 2026	Grains fall into the peak and show no premium against non-El Niño years in either window; Deere and AGCO call 2026 the bottom of the equipment cycle. They still rallied 17–22% since June on flow; 'not on the chain' is not a short thesis.

CANE contract by contract — end-January 2027 (prices in c/lb; contributions in % of NAV)

Holding after the 29-Sep roll	Price today	Weight	Bear curve	Base curve	Bull curve	Contribution · bear	base	bull
May-27 (second-to-expire)	18.44	35%	15.2	21.0	25.0	−6.2	+4.9	+12.4
Jul-27 (third-to-expire, bought at the roll)	18.06	30%	15.4	20.3	23.5	−4.4	+3.7	+9.0
Mar-28 (following March)	18.41	35%	16.3	19.3	21.5	−4.0	+1.7	+5.9
Gross futures return Mar-27 headline scenario 15.0 / 21.5 / 26.0						−14.6	+10.3	+27.4
Carry: T-bill 3.7% − TER 2.48%, × 0.4 years						+0.5	+0.5	+0.5
Net return / NAV target (from $11.44) · probabilities 25 / 50 / 25						−14.1% / $9.83	+10.8% / $12.67	+27.9% / $14.63

Probability-weighted +8.8% net = $12.45, +8.6% against the $11.46 price. Mar-27 alone vs its 19.05c forward: −21% / +13% / +37%, probability-weighted +10.2%. The first edition's '+16%' compared end-January scenarios with the Oct-26 price of 18.07c — a mixed basis, now superseded.

1,005 Mar-27, 892 May-27, 1,048 Mar-28 contracts ($21.4M / $18.4M / $21.6M of notional) against an NAV of $11.44 a share. A parallel shift of the whole curve would give −21% / +13% / +37%; a flatter bull curve (Mar-28 at 23c) adds ≈ 2.8 points to the bull case. Executing the roll after a rally changes little (the fund earns the pre-roll move on Mar-27 and pays it away on Jul-27); a collapse of the Mar/Jul backwardation before the roll signals fading nearby tightness and sits in the monitoring panel.

Adecoagro FY27E earnings bridge — from the sugar price to equity value ($M unless stated)

Line	Bear (25%)	Base (50%)	Bull (25%)
FY27 average raw sugar (c/lb) — end-January scenario 15 / 21.5 / 26c	15.0	20.0	24.5
Hedged 16% of volume at 17.4c → realised price (c/lb)	15.4	19.6	23.4
Sugar ≈ 1.0 Mt (2.2 bn lb) incl. Caarapó: Δ sugar EBITDA vs base at $22M per cent	−93	0	+83
Ethanol and cogeneration vs base	−15	0	+25
Sugar, ethanol & energy EBITDA	277	385	493
Urea realised ($/t; 2Q26 actual $699, August FOB ≈ $570) → Fertilizer EBITDA	450 → 235	550 → 335	650 → 435
Farming & land / Corporate	50 / −55	65 / −55	85 / −55
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA	507	730	958
EV/EBITDA (bear multiple compresses as leverage rises) → enterprise value	5.0x → 2,537	5.5x → 4,015	5.5x → 5,271
Less net debt at end-2027 / minorities	1,950 / 130	1,900 / 150	1,850 / 200
Equity value → per share vs $12.19	457 → $3.2 (−74%)	1,965 → $13.6 (+12%)	3,221 → $22.3 (+83%)

Probability-weighted $13.2: +8.1% capital, +10.2% with the 2.1% dividend. Consensus: 7 analysts: average Hold, targets $13.1–13.4. Worst historical moves: −21.5% in five days and −32.8% in twenty (12 months to 8 Sep 2026); −15.1% in one day (April 2025 tender).

AGRO is a sugar-plus-urea vehicle: in the bull case sugar adds $3.2 a share and urea $3.8; a 5.0x multiple on $1.95bn of net debt at 15c sugar is what turns a −4c move into a −74% equity outcome. Expected return does not justify a core weight; the stock is fairly priced with positive skew — a low-weight convex overlay whose job is the bull case. CANE and AGRO are one sugar factor: size them jointly.

Illustrative 5%-of-NAV sleeves — scenario P&L in % of portfolio NAV

Structure	Bear	Base	Bull	Prob.-weighted	Worst 5-day (history)	Character
A: 5% CANE	−0.70%	+0.54%	+1.39%	+0.44%	−0.44%	Pure commodity beta; no operating or governance tail; liquidity must be worked
B: 4% CANE + 1% AGRO	−1.30%	+0.56%	+1.96%	+0.45%	−0.57%	Beta plus a small convex overlay — the structure this note's numbers support
C: 3% CANE + 2% AGRO	−1.89%	+0.58%	+2.52%	+0.45%	−0.69%	More skew; bear case approaching −2% of NAV; AGRO gap risk dominates
D: 2.5% CANE + 2.5% AGRO	−2.18%	+0.58%	+2.80%	+0.44%	−0.76%	Equal weights: the same expected value with three times the bear-case loss

Scenario returns: CANE −14.1% / +10.8% / +27.9%; AGRO −74% / +12% / +83% plus a pro-rated dividend; the same scenario applies to both legs. Worst 5-day = sum of each leg's worst rolling five-day return over 5 Sep 2025 – 8 Sep 2026. Illustrative only, not a recommendation of any weight.

Positioning and the curve

A 420k-lot turn in ten weeks; Czarnikow calls the week to 11 August the biggest one-week change in the speculative position it has ever seen. August's +21.5% was the largest monthly gain since October 2010. Commercials added a record 153k shorts in the week to 11 August and 46k more in the week to 1 September; producers are on the other side — Brazilian mills hedging 2027/28. Oct-26 18.07c → Mar-27 19.05c (+5.4% contango) → Jul-27 18.06c → Mar-28 18.41c: tightest in mid-crush India, easing as Brazil's 2027/28 comes into view. On 29 September CANE sells Mar-27 and buys Jul-27, so from October the fund holds May-27, Jul-27 and Mar-28 and has no exposure to the contract in which the headline scenarios are quoted.

Correlations

Daily returns, 253 days to 8 Sep 2026 (FMP). CANE, DBA, AGRO and BG show correlations of −0.07 to +0.08 with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductors, and of 0.16–0.26 with each other; CF is the exception (0.28 with the S&P, 0.34 with the Nasdaq). At a 5% weight in an equity book this changes portfolio volatility by less than a tenth of a point — useful, not a reason to own the sleeve.

Base rates and transmission

Four strong events against a non-El Niño control: sugar is a pre-peak trade and palm oil a post-peak trade; grains show no premium in either window. The second table lines up each market's supply concentration, its weather channel and the state of play in September 2026.

Market	1997-98	2009-10	2015-16	2023-24	El Niño median	Non-El Niño median	Peak → +6m · median	Non-El Niño
Raw sugar #11	+11%	+40%	+15%	−11%	+13%	−2%	−24%	−2%
Palm oil	−2%	+21%	−14%	+2%	0%	+4%	+12%	−2%
Wheat (HRW)	—	—	—	—	−19%	0%	−12%	+4%
Corn	—	—	—	—	−5%	0%	−7%	+7%
Soybeans	—	—	—	—	−9%	0%	−8%	+8%
Cocoa	—	—	—	—	+21%	+3%	−4%	+5%
Coffee robusta	—	—	—	—	−7%	−8%	+9%	−2%

Onset month → ONI peak month, monthly averages; the four events' individual paths are shown where the note reports them. IMF monthly prices via FRED. Onset = NOAA's declaration month; peak = ONI maximum (December in all four). Control = the median of the same calendar windows in every non-El Niño year 1992–2025 (80 and 67 observations). Four observations are a base rate, not a law. May→August 2026 on monthly averages (+12%, August estimated at 16.55c) already matches the pre-peak median; the 4 September spot of 18.07c is +22% on a different basis.

Market	Supply concentration and channel	State of play (September 2026)	Vehicle / stance
Raw sugarBrazil ≈ 24%, India ≈ 17%, Thailand ≈ 6% of exports	A weak monsoon cuts Indian yields with a one-season lag and triggers export bans; north-east Thailand dries; southern Brazil gets wetter (bigger next crop). Policy amplifies. Onset→peak +13%, peak→+6m −24%	Monsoon −13% (Maharashtra −14%, UP −1%); export ban to 30 Sep; first import quota since 2017-18 (1 Mt); Thailand < 10 Mt; Brazil 26/27 large but sugar-light (mix 42.5% vs 51%); balance −0.1 to −3.2 Mt; 18.07c, +12% May→Aug on monthly averages	CANE (core), AGRO (overlay), BG (exiting sugar) — positive
Palm oilIndonesia ≈ 59% + Malaysia ≈ 24% = 83% from two dry-side countries	Yields fall with a 6–24 month lag; Indonesia's B50 mandate (1 Oct) absorbs 16–17 Mt. Onset→peak 0%, peak→+6m +12%	CPO RM4,977 (+11% y/y) despite 2.63 Mt Malaysian stocks; GAPKI sees 2027 Indonesian output 56.8 vs 58.5 Mt; > 200,000 ha of fires; planters guide RM5,200 for Q1-27	No US vehicle; Malaysian / Singapore planters — watchlist, build after the peak
RobustaVietnam ≈ 40%	The Jan–Apr dry season needs irrigation water; drought hits the following crop. Event median −7%	Priced the other way: record Brazilian and world crops; London robusta at a 2¾-month low	None (JO delisted) — not a trade
CocoaCôte d'Ivoire ≈ 40% + Ghana ≈ 13%	A harsher Dec–Feb harmattan reduces pod set; but high farmgate prices break the supply response. Onset→peak +21%, peak→+6m −4%	$6,175/t (−13% y/y); early surveys −18% Ivorian crop, but ICE stocks at a two-year high; Hershey calls 2027 cocoa deflation 'visible'	HSY / MDLZ the other way — watch; short thesis withdrawn
WheatAustralia ≈ 11% of exports	Nine of the ten driest eastern-Australian periods were El Niño years; Black Sea, Canada and the US plains unaffected or wetter. HRW onset→peak −19%	ABARES raised Australia to 29.9 Mt (−17% y/y but +12% vs June); the rally is Novorossiysk, not weather	WEAT — avoid
RiceIndia ≈ 40% of exports	Kharif sown Jun–Jul; the 2023 shock was policy (Thai 5% +23% into that peak)	Indian export prices at a one-year high; FAO sees the first fall in world output since 2015/16; record Indian stocks, no new curbs so far	None
FishmealPeru's anchovy	Warm coastal water suppresses upwelling (1997-98 near-collapse). Onset→peak +16%, peak→+6m −6%	First season closed at 24.6% of a cut quota; ENFEN 62% odds of an 'extraordinary' coastal event; record $2,990/t in June — largely priced	None (indirect: feed costs)

Update log

Every change to a probability, a valuation or a rule is dated here; earlier editions of the note stay on the notes page. The ledger keeps the forecasts themselves from being rewritten.

Sep 9, 2026

Tracker published. ENSO series from NOAA CPC (weekly through 2 Sep: +2.7°C; ONI JJA +1.80; RONI JJA +1.36). Reference prices as of 8 Sep. Probabilities as in the second edition: Mar-27 15 / 21.5 / 26c at 25 / 50 / 25%; policy tree 25 / 50 / 25.

Sep 8, 2026

Issue #8, second edition: CANE valued contract by contract (+8.8% probability-weighted, superseding the first edition's +16% front-month figure); AGRO earnings bridge and illustrative sleeves added; four-event comparisons gained a non-El Niño control; catalyst-to-action matrix and eight dated forecasts.

Sep 2, 2026

First edition of the El Niño note (idea generation across the agricultural chain; sugar identified as the pre-peak trade, palm oil as the post-peak trade).

What in this project is my own work

The base-rate study (IMF monthly prices, four events against a non-El Niño control), the pricing audit, the policy tree and its probabilities, the CANE contract-level model, the AGRO earnings bridge, the catalyst-to-action matrix and the eight forecasts are my own work. The ENSO series are NOAA's; the futures settlements are ICE's via Czarnikow; company data are from filings and FMP. Language models were used to parse documents and draft tables, not to set any number on this page.

Data and sources

Primary sources (direct links)

As cited in the note

ENSO: NOAA CPC weekly Niño3.4 through the week of Sep 2, 2026 (fetched Sep 9, 2026) · Sugar curve: ICE settlements Sep 4, 2026 · Reference prices: Sep 8, 2026 · Note: Issue #8, Sep 8, 2026 · Page updated Sep 9, 2026

NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (13 Aug 2026) and weekly update (31 Aug 2026); IRI (19 Aug); JMA (10 Aug); BoM (1 Sep); WMO (29 Aug); NOAA.climate.gov ENSO blog
ICE settlements via Czarnikow (4 and 7 Sep); Barchart; FRED TB3MS (Aug); IMF Primary Commodity Prices via FRED (monthly averages 1992–2026)
USDA FAS and PSD; ISO; ICCO (31 Aug); FAO; ABARES (1 Sep); WASDE (12 Aug); MPOB (10 Aug); GAPKI (1 Sep); IMARPE / ENFEN (28–30 Aug)
IMD (4 Sep); Skymet; DGFT; ISMA; NFCSF; UNICA / MAPA; Hedgepoint (19 Aug); ISO (1 Sep); Czarnikow (11, 17 Aug, 4 and 7 Sep); StoneX (18 Aug); Datagro; Green Pool; Covrig; Citi; Thai Sugar Millers Corp (8 Sep); China customs (Jul); CFTC (1 Sep)
Teucrium holdings 8 Sep and prospectus 30 Apr 2026; Adecoagro 2Q26 results and call; Bunge Q2 (29 Jul); CF, NTR, MOS, CTVA, HSY, MDLZ, DE, AGCO Q2 releases; Zacks; StockAnalysis; FMP
Site refresh 9 Sep 2026: NOAA weekly Niño3.4 (week of 2 Sep: +2.7°C), FMP closes 8 Sep (CANE $11.50, AGRO $12.24, BG $123.89, CF $134.33, DBA $29.13, NTR $80.68, MOS $26.53, CTVA $85.90, HSY $173.27)

Prepared by Mingyang Fund Research for informational purposes only; not an offer or a solicitation to buy any security, and not investment advice. Probabilities, scenario values and expected returns are analytical estimates, not forecasts; the illustrative sleeves are not recommendations of any position size. Mingyang Fund and its principals may hold or take positions in the securities discussed.

Catalysts and what they change

Full calendar →

How each data point moves the bear / base / bull probabilities from today's 25 / 50 / 25, and what my rules say a position built now does when it lands. The rules were written before the data arrive; sizing is a separate decision and is not made on this page.

#1By 30 Sepin 17 d

India export ban extended ('until further orders'); ethanol diversion trimmed only modestly (2.4–3.0 Mt)

SignalBase branch of Table 4 confirmed; import quota fully allocated

Bear / base / bull →20 / 55 / 25

ADDCANE to full size from a half position; hold AGRO

#2By 30 Sepin 17 d

Ethanol-diversion curbs release 2–3 Mt, or the ban lapses with exports permitted

SignalBearish branch: 'no shortage' — the 1997 / 2009 / 2023 path from a higher start

Bear / base / bull →55 / 35 / 10

EXITCANE immediately; halve AGRO, review at 10 Nov

#3To 30 Sepin 17 d

Late-monsoon rain: season closes at −8% or better with Maharashtra recovering

SignalThe 2023 precedent; crop estimate drifts to 31–32 Mt

Bear / base / bull →40 / 45 / 15

TRIMCANE by half; tighten the price invalidation to 16.5c

#4Novin 63 d

ISMA first estimate at or below 30 Mt; crush start delayed; recovery rates below last year

SignalBase validated by hard data; the 2015-16 path stays open

Bear / base / bull →15 / 50 / 35

HOLDAdd only if net imports reach 2 Mt — the sole condition for extending the window past end-January

#5Novin 63 d

ISMA at or above 32 Mt, or early recovery rates above last year

Signal'No shortage' wins; deficit estimates converge on ISO's −0.2

Bear / base / bull →45 / 45 / 10

TRIMHalf; the rest runs to the December CPC confirmation with a 16.5c stop

#6Any time

Sugar fails to rise on bullish data: record managed-money long with the price below its 20-day average for a week

SignalFlow has overtaken fundamentals — the bearish divergence of a crowded market

Bear / base / bull →Bear +10 points

TRIMHalf regardless of the data; do not add back until the net long has fallen 25%

#7Fortnightly to Dec

Brazil MAPA / UNICA: sugar mix reverting toward 50%; cumulative Centre-South sugar above 40 Mt

SignalThe ≈ 4.7c sugar-over-ethanol premium is pulling supply forward

Bear / base / bull →35 / 45 / 20

TRIMHalf of the sugar leg

#8Dec–Janin 88 d

CPC confirms the ONI peak ('past peak' language in the monthly discussion)

SignalHistorically the month reversals begin (±1), unless India is importing

Bear / base / bull →Window closes

BEGIN EXITClose the sugar leg by end-January unless India's net imports are at or above 2 Mt

#9Jan–Marin 168 d

Brazil 2027/28 estimates at or above 43 Mt with normal rain and the mix back at 48–50%

SignalThe scheduled end of the sugar leg; the 2027 palm narrative begins

Bear / base / bull →2027 bear for sugar

CLOSEThe sugar leg; activate the palm watchlist

#1010 Novin 58 d

AGRO 3Q26: FY26 EBITDA path at or above $680M with sugar above 19c; 2027 hedge ratio still at or below 25%

SignalThe operating-leverage case confirmed and still open

Bear / base / bull →AGRO base ↑

HOLD / ADDAGRO within the overlay weight; if 2027 hedges have been raised to 40%+ at the curve, the leverage case has been sold — TRIM

#11Any time

AGRO: FY26 path below $570M; leverage above 3.2x; any related-party transaction or equity issuance

SignalBalance-sheet or governance tail firing

Bear / base / bull →—

EXITAGRO unconditionally (the sugar thesis is untouched; use CANE)

#12Mondays

Weekly Niño3.4 below +2.0°C for four consecutive weeks, or CPC calling the peak before November

SignalThe event is decaying early — the pre-peak framing collapses for every leg at once

Bear / base / bull →40 / 45 / 15

HALVEThe whole sleeve

Forecast ledger

Site-wide ledger →

Eight dated, falsifiable forecasts from the note, scored in follow-up notes in early October, mid-November and end-January. Each carries the probability assigned on 8 September 2026 and the source that settles it.

#	Forecast	Resolves	Our probability	Scoring source	Status
1	India's 2026/27 gross sugar output (ISMA first estimate) at 29–31 Mt; at or above 32 Mt: 20%; below 29 Mt: 20%	Nov 2026	60%	ISMA first advance estimate	Open
2	India's export ban extended beyond 30 September (formally or 'until further orders')	Sep 30, 2026	70%	DGFT notification	Open
3	India's net sugar imports reach 2 Mt or more by end-January 2027	Jan 31, 2027	25%	DGFT / trade data	Open
4	Mar-27 raw sugar settles at or above 21c on at least one day before 31 January 2027 (at or above 25c: 25%; at or below 15c: 25%)	Jan 31, 2027	60%	ICE settlements	Open
5	CANE trades at or above $12.50 on at least one day before 31 January 2027	Jan 31, 2027	55%	Exchange closes	Open
6	Brazil Centre-South 2027/28 sugar estimates at 42 Mt or more are the consensus by end-February 2027	Feb 28, 2027	60%	Datagro / Hedgepoint / StoneX	Open
7	Malaysian CPO (BMD third-month) is higher in June 2027 than in the ONI peak month (December 2026)	Jun 30, 2027	60%	BMD settlements	Open
8	Adecoagro FY26 adjusted EBITDA at or above $630M (our base)	Mar 2027	55%	4Q26 release	Open

What would make us wrong

The event decays early

Models overshot in 2014; if weekly Niño3.4 rolls over before November the pre-peak framing collapses and the softs premium unwinds in weeks — below 10% given record heat content, but it hits every leg at once.

Brazil offsets everything, again

2023 showed that a record Centre-South crush plus an Indian ethanol decision can reverse sugar in the peak month; a 43 Mt 2027/28 estimate arriving in January with the mix already reverting would reproduce the 1997 / 2009 / 2023 path from a higher start.

Crowding turns fundamentals into flow

A record managed-money long can liquidate on a risk-off regardless of Indian data.

India recovers

Late rain and Uttar Pradesh's normal season produce a 31–32 Mt crop and the ethanol lever caps prices.

AGRO-specific

Controlling-shareholder actions, the Brazilian real, Argentine policy, or a decision to lock 2027 sugar at today's curve would each break the unhedged-FY27 argument without touching the sugar thesis.