How the record is measured.

Index

Each weekly point is indext = indext−1 × (1 + rt), where rt is the week's time-weighted return from brokerage account value. The first point is 100 on Jan 6, 2025. Because only the index is published, portfolio size is never disclosed and cannot be inferred from the site.

Windows

Since inception runs from the first point. Trailing 12M starts at the last weekly point on or before one year prior to the last data point. YTD starts at the last weekly point of the prior calendar year. All windows end at the last data point, not today, so a stale series is shown as stale rather than silently extended.

Statistics

Annualised return is (end / start)365 / days − 1 and is only shown for windows of at least a year. Volatility is the sample standard deviation of weekly returns times √52. Sharpe is the annualised mean weekly excess return over the risk-free rate divided by annualised volatility. Sortino uses downside deviation (root-mean-square of negative weekly excess returns) in the denominator. Max drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline on weekly closes; intra-week drawdowns can be deeper. Beta and correlation are computed on weekly returns against SPY. Up / down capture is the sum of fund weekly returns divided by the sum of SPY weekly returns in weeks where SPY rose (fell).

Monthly table

Monthly returns use the last weekly point in each month, so they differ slightly from calendar month-end returns. Annual figures chain the monthly figures and are marked partial where the year is incomplete.

Benchmark

SPY total return: Financial Modeling Prep's dividend-adjusted closing prices on the same Friday dates (the previous trading day when the Friday is a market holiday), which reinvests SPY's dividends. The plain price series is kept in performance.csv for reference; it understates the benchmark by roughly the ETF's yield, about 1.2% a year.

Positions and trades

Holdings are shown as portfolio weights only. Position and trade returns are price returns on the instrument: (price − entry) / entry for longs and (entry − price) / entry for shorts. They are not contributions to portfolio return and do not account for sizing, timing of adds and trims, dividends or FX. Live quotes are delayed and for reference only; dated pitch prices are fixed at publication.

Theses

Every thesis records a publication date (or an "as of" date where the write-up has no separate publication date), a reference price, a target where one was set, catalysts and kill criteria. Cards are scored against delayed quotes from the reference price. Positions may differ from published views and can change without notice.