Research accountability
Forecast ledger.
Original probabilities, observable resolution criteria and dated outcomes. Unresolved forecasts remain open.
Forecasts on the ledger
8
8 open · 0 resolved
Hit rate
—
No forecast has resolved yet
Mean Brier score
—
Lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Next resolution
Sep 30, 2026
in 17 days · DGFT notification
Forecasts
El Niño tracker →| ID | Forecast | Source | Made | Resolves | Our probability | Settles by | Status | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| en8-02 | India's export ban is extended beyond 30 September 2026, formally or 'until further orders'. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026in 17 d | 70% | DGFT notification | Open | — |
| en8-01 | India's 2026/27 gross sugar output (ISMA first estimate) lands at 29–31 Mt. Alternatives: at or above 32 Mt (20%), below 29 Mt (20%). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Nov 2026in 78 d | 60% | ISMA first advance estimate | Open | — |
| en8-03 | India's net sugar imports reach 2 Mt or more by end-January 2027. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027in 140 d | 25% | DGFT / trade data | Open | — |
| en8-04 | Mar-27 raw sugar settles at or above 21c on at least one day before 31 January 2027. Sub-forecasts: at or above 25c (25%); at or below 15c (25%). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027in 140 d | 60% | ICE settlements | Open | — |
| en8-05 | CANE trades at or above $12.50 on at least one day before 31 January 2027. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027in 140 d | 55% | Exchange closes | Open | — |
| en8-06 | Brazil Centre-South 2027/28 sugar estimates of 42 Mt or more are the consensus by end-February 2027. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Feb 28, 2027in 168 d | 60% | Datagro / Hedgepoint / StoneX | Open | — |
| en8-08 | Adecoagro FY26 adjusted EBITDA comes in at or above $630M (our base case). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Mar 2027in 199 d | 55% | Adecoagro 4Q26 release | Open | — |
| en8-07 | Malaysian crude palm oil (BMD third-month) is higher in June 2027 than in the ONI peak month (December 2026). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jun 30, 2027in 290 d | 60% | BMD settlements | Open | — |
The ledger is a JSON file on the server (ledger.json); a forecast is resolved by adding its result and the date, never by changing the statement or the probability. Brier scores appear once a forecast resolves.
Scoring rules
- A forecast is a statement that a named source can settle on a known date, with a probability attached at publication.
- It is scored on the resolution date from the stated source: right, wrong, or void (the source did not publish, or the question became meaningless).
- The Brier score of a resolved forecast is (p − outcome)², where outcome is 1 if the statement came true and 0 if it did not; lower is better and 0.25 is the score of a coin flip.
- Hit rate counts forecasts whose direction was right, i.e. p > 50% and the statement came true, or p < 50% and it did not. A 50% forecast counts as neither.
- Entries are never rewritten. If a view changes before resolution, the original stays open and a new entry records the revision with its own date.