Research accountability
Forecast ledger.
Original probabilities, observable resolution criteria and dated outcomes. Unresolved forecasts remain open.
Forecasts on the ledger
16
16 open · 0 resolved
Hit rate
—
No forecast has resolved yet
Mean Brier score
—
Lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Next resolution
Sep 30, 2026
in -19 days · DGFT notification
Forecasts
El Niño tracker →| ID | Forecast | Source | Made | Resolves | Our probability | Settles by | Status | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| en8-02 | India's export ban is extended beyond 30 September 2026, formally or 'until further orders'. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026awaiting score | 70% | DGFT notification | Open | — |
| cr9-05 | Applied Materials' November 12, 2026 earnings call characterises calendar-2027 wafer-fab equipment spending as flat-to-down (company language). | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026in 24 d | 45% | AMAT FQ4 2026 call transcript | Open | — |
| en8-01 | India's 2026/27 gross sugar output (ISMA first estimate) lands at 29–31 Mt. Alternatives: at or above 32 Mt (20%), below 29 Mt (20%). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Nov 2026in 42 d | 60% | ISMA first advance estimate | Open | — |
| cr9-07 | The Fed raises the target range again at either the October 28 or the December 9, 2026 meeting. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Dec 9, 2026in 51 d | 60% | FOMC statement | Open | — |
| cr9-01 | SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) closes 2026 below its October 5, 2026 close of 589.51. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026in 73 d | 65% | iShares/ICE closing value | Open | — |
| cr9-03 | The 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.31% (a new cycle high) at least once before December 31, 2026. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026in 73 d | 35% | FRED DGS10 | Open | — |
| cr9-06 | TrendForce's conventional DRAM contract-price forecast for 1Q27 is negative quarter-on-quarter. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Dec 2026in 73 d | 50% | TrendForce quarterly DRAM bulletin | Open | — |
| en8-03 | India's net sugar imports reach 2 Mt or more by end-January 2027. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027in 104 d | 25% | DGFT / trade data | Open | — |
| en8-04 | Mar-27 raw sugar settles at or above 21c on at least one day before 31 January 2027. Sub-forecasts: at or above 25c (25%); at or below 15c (25%). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027in 104 d | 60% | ICE settlements | Open | — |
| en8-05 | CANE trades at or above $12.50 on at least one day before 31 January 2027. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027in 104 d | 55% | Exchange closes | Open | — |
| en8-06 | Brazil Centre-South 2027/28 sugar estimates of 42 Mt or more are the consensus by end-February 2027. | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Feb 28, 2027in 132 d | 60% | Datagro / Hedgepoint / StoneX | Open | — |
| en8-08 | Adecoagro FY26 adjusted EBITDA comes in at or above $630M (our base case). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Mar 2027in 163 d | 55% | Adecoagro 4Q26 release | Open | — |
| cr9-02 | The 10-year Treasury yield closes below 4.75% on at least one day before March 31, 2027. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Mar 31, 2027in 163 d | 55% | FRED DGS10 | Open | — |
| cr9-04 | ICE BofA U.S. high-yield option-adjusted spread prints 400bp or wider on at least one day before March 31, 2027. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Mar 31, 2027in 163 d | 40% | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Open | — |
| cr9-08 | On Holding reports FY2026 constant-currency net-sales growth of 20% or more. | Issue #9 — Follow the Credit | Oct 19, 2026 | Mar 2027in 163 d | 70% | On Holding FY2026 results release | Open | — |
| en8-07 | Malaysian crude palm oil (BMD third-month) is higher in June 2027 than in the ONI peak month (December 2026). | Issue #8 — Super El Niño 2026-27 | Sep 8, 2026 | Jun 30, 2027in 254 d | 60% | BMD settlements | Open | — |
The ledger is a JSON file on the server (ledger.json); a forecast is resolved by adding its result and the date, never by changing the statement or the probability. Brier scores appear once a forecast resolves.
Scoring rules
- A forecast is a statement that a named source can settle on a known date, with a probability attached at publication.
- It is scored on the resolution date from the stated source: right, wrong, or void (the source did not publish, or the question became meaningless).
- The Brier score of a resolved forecast is (p − outcome)², where outcome is 1 if the statement came true and 0 if it did not; lower is better and 0.25 is the score of a coin flip.
- Hit rate counts forecasts whose direction was right, i.e. p > 50% and the statement came true, or p < 50% and it did not. A 50% forecast counts as neither.
- Entries are never rewritten. If a view changes before resolution, the original stays open and a new entry records the revision with its own date.