Follow the Credit: The September–October Rotation

Macro and positioning note on the September–October rotation. The AI-equipment book was added to in the mid-September sell-off and sold between October 1 and 7, two to six sessions before SOXX fell 16%; half the account moved into Treasuries (TLT 35%, IEI 15%) at the October yield highs. The lens is the direction of credit expansion, read on three dials: quantity still expanding (bank credit +6.2%, C&I loans +10%, AI debt issuance $466bn year-to-date), price turning (real 10-year +55bp, the Fed's first hike in three years) and breadth narrowing (high-yield spreads +65bp, AI issuance $113bn in June to $23bn in September, CoreWeave notes at 15–16% yields). On Holding +22% as a mispricing bought on Asia-Pacific data; Goldman Sachs −10% as the post-mortem. Eight dated forecasts enter the ledger.

Published Oct 19, 2026. Views and model assumptions reflect the publication date and may have changed.