The 44-Point Spread: Buy the Hated Hyperscalers, Don't Chase the Chips

The AI trade has split: record multiples for the chips, broken-strategy pricing for the hyperscalers. Walks the cash-flow math (MSFT, META and GOOGL capex from $53B in 2020 to $226B in 2025 with revenue accelerating at every name) and argues the FCF squeeze is capex timing, not deterioration. Positioning: add MSFT and META on weakness, hold GOOGL, half-size APP, do not chase SOXX, NVDA or AVGO.

Published Apr 10, 2026. Views and model assumptions reflect the publication date and may have changed.