U.S. Equity Corrections: The Recovery Pattern and the 2026 Iran-War Episode

Two-part study of the Iran-war drawdown: a 9.1% S&P correction (Jan 27 to Mar 30) that recovered to a new high in 18 days, the fastest since 1987. Part I sets base rates for non-recessionary corrections; Part II shows the payoff ratio at 7,126 has fallen from 1.43x to 0.60x, so the edge has moved from direction to dispersion. Trades: long software / short energy, scale-ins at 6,800–6,900, a cheap VIX hedge.

Published Apr 17, 2026. Views and model assumptions reflect the publication date and may have changed.