An idea needs a price, a catalyst and a way to be wrong.
9 investment pitches. Explore the variant view, operating evidence, valuation discipline and conditions that change the case.
Six new working research drafts synthesize the original Ideas and dated primary evidence. They are not presented as previously published author calls or current trading instructions.
Micron: underwrite the memory content, then the cycle
The investment question is how much of today's memory profitability survives the next capacity response. HBM qualification and product mix can extend the earnings cycle, but record margins are a starting point for stress testing.
AMAT & Lam: test the second leg of the memory cycle
High memory profits can fund another wave of equipment spending. The trade needs orders, process intensity and customer budgets to confirm the lag; a memory share-price rally is not an equipment order.
Uber: who owns demand when the driver changes?
Autonomous vehicles create a bargaining contest between the fleet and the demand platform. Uber's opportunity is to improve fleet utilization while retaining profitable customer access; availability alone does not prove either.
Power delivery: follow the project to the earnings
Generation, electrical equipment and skilled installation sit at different points on the same power-delivery path. The opportunity is profitable conversion of a funded project; adding every backlog figure together double-counts that project.
Adecoagro: price the sugar exposure and the leverage
AGRO is a leveraged sugar-and-fertilizer earnings bridge. Weather only becomes an equity thesis after production, realized prices, hedges, costs, debt and minority interests are accounted for.
Vertiv: a better entry still needs a valuation
The author changed the position when the price changed. The next step is to test whether cooling content, conversion margins and cash generation justify the new valuation, rather than treating a drawdown as the thesis.